Timor Sea: Invest 90P

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Re: N Australia: Tropical Cyclone Helen (TC 10S)

#121 Postby tropicana » Fri Jan 04, 2008 9:00 am

this just in:-
9am ET or 1130pm Darwin Time:-

All flights in and out of Darwin Airport have been cancelled or postponed until further notice.
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#122 Postby Coredesat » Fri Jan 04, 2008 9:15 am

WPAC Floater 1 is over Helen:

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Re: N Australia: Tropical Cyclone Helen (TC 10S)

#123 Postby Crostorm » Fri Jan 04, 2008 9:30 am

IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY

MEDIA: Transmitters serving the area Darwin to Daly River are requested to use
the cyclone emergency warning signal with this message.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST Friday 4 January 2008

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Port Keats
to Cape Hotham, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Elcho Island
to Numbulwar, including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.

At 9:30 pm CST Tropical Cyclone Helen, Category 2 was estimated to be
47 kilometres northwest of Daly River Mouth and
130 kilometres southwest of Darwin and
moving east northeast at 17 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is currently crossing the coast near Channel Point. Tropical Cyclone
Helen is expected to weaken below cyclone intensity over land tomorrow morning,
but may continue to move east and redevelop in the Gulf of Carpentaria on
Sunday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour are currently being
experienced between Dundee Beach and Channel Point, and are expected to continue
for a few hours before beginning to ease.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced on
parts of the coast between Darwin and Port Keats, and may extend to Cape Hotham
and the Tiwi Islands in the next few hours. These conditions are expected to
continue for the next 6 to 12 hours.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometers per hour may affect coastal and island
communities between Elcho Island and Numbulwar, including Nhulunbuy and Groote
Eylandt, on Sunday if the system redevelops in the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Heavy rain is expected to cause flooding over the Top End.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Helen at 9:30 pm CST:
.Centre located near...... 13.1 degrees South 129.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 28 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east northeast at 17 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 975 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am CST Saturday 05 January.


This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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Re: N Australia: Tropical Cyclone Helen (TC 10S)

#124 Postby Crostorm » Fri Jan 04, 2008 9:45 am

Modis sat image from today

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#125 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jan 04, 2008 9:50 am

Image

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#126 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jan 04, 2008 10:02 am

Landfall near Channel Point, Australia:

Image
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#127 Postby Coredesat » Fri Jan 04, 2008 10:14 am

This is a couple hours old:

AXAU01 ADRM 041333
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
ISSUED BY DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT: 1332 UTC 04/01/2008
NAME: HELEN
DATA AT: 1200 UTC
LATITUDE: 13.1S
LONGITUDE: 129.9E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 15 NM [28 KM]
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: EAST NORTHEAST [077 DEG]
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 9 KNOTS [17 KM/H]
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 50 KNOTS [95 KM/H]
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 70 KNOTS [130 KM/H]
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA

RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT: 70 NM [130 KM]
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: 70 NM [130 KM]
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: 70 NM [130 KM]
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT: 70 NM [130 KM]
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT: 30 NM [55 KM]
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: 30 NM [55 KM]
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: 30 NM [55 KM]
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT: 30 NM [55 KM]
RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS:
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS: 20 NM [37 KM]
DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T3.5/3.5/1.0/24HRS
PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 998 HPA
RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 120 NM [220 KM]
STORM DEPTH: DEEP
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME : LOCATION : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND : CENTRAL PRESSURE
[UTC] : DEGREES : NM [KM]: KNOTS[KM/H]: HPA
+12: 05/0000: 13.1S 132.0E: 040 [075]: 030 [055]: 986
+24: 05/1200: 13.0S 134.4E: 060 [110]: 025 [045]: 992
+36: 06/0000: 13.2S 136.6E: 070 [130]: 030 [055]: 990
+48: 06/1200: 13.8S 138.3E: 090 [165]: 040 [075]: 980
+60: 07/0000: 14.9S 139.4E: 120 [220]: 050 [095]: 975
+72: 07/1200: 15.7S 139.7E: 150 [280]: 055 [100]: 970
REMARKS:
DVORAK BASED ON CURVED BAND PATTERN 0.85 WRAP. DT=MET=3.5 PT=3.0
==
THE NEXT BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY: 04/1930 UTC BY DARWIN TCWC.
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#128 Postby Coredesat » Fri Jan 04, 2008 10:16 am

Extratropical. Reunion will continue bulletins until the system is completely extratropical or no longer threatens land.

WTIO30 FMEE 041254

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/6/20072008
1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-ELNUS)

2.A POSITION 2008/01/04 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.3S / 42.6E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/05 00 UTC: 26.6S/42.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2008/01/05 12 UTC: 27.3S/44.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2008/01/06 00 UTC: 27.8S/45.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2008/01/06 12 UTC: 29.7S/47.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2008/01/07 00 UTC: 32.6S/49.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2008/01/07 12 UTC: 35.3S/49.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
EX-ELNIUS HAS BEGUN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SINCE LAST NIGHT
WITH AN
EXTENDING RADIUS OF MAX WIND AND WEAKER WINDS AROUND THE ESTIMATED
LLCC.
TWO ROTATING LOW LEVEL MESOSCALE VORTEX HAS BEEN CLEARLY SEEN TODAY
IN
VIS IMAGERY. THE EASTERN ONE SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN ONE BASED ON LAST
SATELLITE PICT
URES AND IS USED FOR FIX IN THIS ADVISORY

AFTER ACCELERATING LAST NIGHT, SYSTEM HAS SLOW DOWN TODAY. ACTUAL
MOTION
IS SLOW AND ORIENTED EASTSOUTHEASTWARDS. IT SHOULD ACCELERATE
OBVIOUSLY
TOMORROW TO CURVE MORE SOUTHWARDS SUNDAY AS IT SHOULD INTERACT WITH A
DEVELOPPING EXTRATROPICAL LOW BETWEEN 30S/40S AND SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR. IT
WILL LOSE A
LL ITS TROPICAL CARACTERISTICS BY THAT TIME. IT IS A SOLUTION
PROVIDED BY
THE ECMWF MODEL AND ALSO THE FRENCH MODEL ARPEGE TROPIQUES

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MORE PRONONCED IN
THE
NORTHERN SEMI CIRCLE THAN IN THE SOUTHERN ONE, SUGGESTING THAT
STRONGER
WINDS OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN PART. THESE WINDS (25 TO LOCALLY 30 KT)
COULD
BRUSHED THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR WITHIN TH NEXT 24-36 HOURS
WHILE THE CE
NTER WILL HAVE ITS CLOSEST POINT APPROCH.=
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#129 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jan 04, 2008 11:49 am

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY

MEDIA: Transmitters serving the area Darwin to Daly River are requested to use
the cyclone emergency warning signal with this message.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:00 am CST Saturday 5 January 2008

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Port Keats
to Cape Hotham, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Elcho Island
to Numbulwar, including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.

At 12:30 am CST Tropical Cyclone Helen, Category 2 was estimated to be
25 kilometres northeast of Daly River Mouth and
100 kilometres south southwest of Darwin and
moving east at 18 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone has crossed the coast near Channel Point and is expected to weaken
below cyclone intensity over land later this morning, but will continue to move
east and may redevelop in the Gulf of Carpentaria on Sunday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour are currently being
experienced between Dundee Beach and Channel Point, but are expected to ease
over the next few hours.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced on
the coast and adjacent inland areas between Cape Hotham and Port Keats, and may
extend to the Tiwi Islands and further inland, including Batchelor and Adelaide
River, in the next few hours. These conditions are expected to continue for the
next 6 hours.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometers per hour may affect coastal and island
communities between Elcho Island and Numbulwar, including Nhulunbuy and Groote
Eylandt, on Sunday if the system redevelops in the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Heavy rain is expected to cause flooding over the Top End.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Helen at 12:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 13.2 degrees South 130.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 28 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east at 18 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 975 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am CST Saturday 05 January.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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#130 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jan 04, 2008 1:47 pm

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Re: Over Northern Territory: TC Helen (TC 10S)

#131 Postby Crostorm » Fri Jan 04, 2008 4:56 pm

Here are some news

Hundreds evacuated, thousands at threat in NSW floods
http://www.abc.net.au
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#132 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jan 04, 2008 4:56 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY

MEDIA: Transmitters serving the area Darwin to Daly River are requested to use
the cyclone emergency warning signal with this message.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 am CST Saturday 5 January 2008

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Port Keats
to Cape Hotham, including Darwin. The Cyclone WARNING for the TIWI ISLANDS has
been cancelled.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Elcho Island
to Numbulwar, including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.

At 3:30 am CST Tropical Cyclone Helen, Category 1 was estimated to be
20 kilometres west northwest of Adelaide River and
85 kilometres south of Darwin and moving east at 18 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone crossed the coast near Channel Point and is currently centred over
land about 20 kilometres west northwest of Adelaide River. Tropical Cyclone
Helen is expected to weaken below cyclone intensity during the next 3 hours. It
will continue to move east and may redevelop in the Gulf of Carpentaria on
Sunday.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced
within 110 kilometres of the cyclone centre and are expected to gradually ease
over the next few hours.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometers per hour may affect coastal and island
communities between Elcho Island and Numbulwar, including Nhulunbuy and Groote
Eylandt, on Sunday if the system redevelops in the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Heavy rain is expected to cause flooding over the Top End.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Helen at 3:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 13.2 degrees South 130.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 46 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east at 18 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 985 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 8:00 am CST Saturday 05 January.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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Re: Over Northern Territory: TC Helen (TC 10S)

#133 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jan 04, 2008 4:57 pm

Image

WTXS31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (HELEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 13.2S 131.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 131.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 13.3S 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 13.7S 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 14.4S 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 15.5S 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 131.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (HELEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT STORM POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
ON DVORAK SATELLITE FIXES FORM PGTW AND ABRF, RADAR IMAGERY FROM
DARWIN, AND SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AREA AFFECTED BY THE STORM.
STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM REMAINS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLU-
ENCE. THIS STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, RESULTING IN A GENERALLY EASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK. TC 10S WILL WEAKEN OVER LAND BEFORE REEMERGING OVER WARM WATER
IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AROUND TAU 18. THE STORM IS MOVING EAST OF
A SYNOPTIC-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER AND WILL EXPERIENCE
INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS A RESULT. PASSAGE OVER LAND
DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS WILL LIKELY PREVENT THE STORM FROM DEVELOPING
A STRONG OUTFLOW BUFFER AGAINST THIS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THEREFORE, THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT CROSSES
INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. THE SYSTEM WILL AGAIN MAKE LANDFALL OVER
THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA JUST PRIOR TO TAU 48 AND BEGIN DISSIPATING
THEREAFTER. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z
AND 052100Z.
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#134 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jan 04, 2008 7:02 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 16
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 8:10 am CST [8:40 am EST] Saturday 5 January 2008

A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal and island communities between
Nhulunbuy in the Northern Territory and Weipa in Queensland.

At 6:30 am CST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Helen was estimated to be
22 kilometres east northeast of Adelaide River and
100 kilometres south southeast of Darwin and
moving east at 16 kilometres per hour.

The TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING for coastal and island communities between Port
Keats and Cape Hotham, including Darwin, has been cancelled.

The Tropical Cyclone Watch for coastal and island communities between ELCHO
ISLAND and NHULUNBUY has also been cancelled.

EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE Helen has now weakened below tropical cyclone intensity and
is located 22 kilometres east-northeast of Adelaide River township. It will
continue to move east and may redevelop in the Gulf of Carpentaria on Sunday.

Damaging wind gusts to 90 kilometres per hour may be experienced over the next
few hours in the vicinity of the low.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometers per hour may affect coastal and island
communities between Nhulunbuy in the Northern Territory and Weipa in Queensland
on Sunday if the system redevelops in the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Heavy rain is expected to cause flooding over the Top End.

Note that severe weather warnings remain current for Top End areas and for the
eastern Gulf of Carpentaria and Torres Strait in Queensland.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Helen at 6:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 13.2 degrees South 131.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 46 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east at 16 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 990 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am CST Saturday 05 January.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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#135 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jan 04, 2008 8:09 pm

Looks like it will regain cyclone intensity as it returns to water...

My guess is 55 kt (1-min) for the landfall intensity.
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#136 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jan 04, 2008 8:57 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 17
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST [11:30 am EST] Saturday 5 January 2008

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Nhulunbuy to Port
Roper.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Port Roper in
the Northern Territory to Weipa in Queensland.

At 9:30 am CST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Helen was estimated to be
110 kilometres east of Adelaide River and
105 kilometres southwest of Jabiru and
moving east at 22 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low [EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE Helen] will continue to move east and may
redevelop into a Tropical Cyclone once it moves into the western Gulf of
Carpentaria early on Sunday morning.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to affect coastal and
island communities between Nhulunbuy and Port Roper on Sunday.

Heavy rain is expected to cause flooding of low lying areas over the Top End.

Note that severe weather warnings remain current for Top End areas and for the
eastern Gulf of Carpentaria and Torres Strait in Queensland.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Helen at 9:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 13.3 degrees South 132.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 50 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east at 22 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 80 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 992 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm CST Saturday 05 January.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

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#137 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 05, 2008 12:29 am

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 18
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:00 pm CST [2:30 pm EST] Saturday 5 January 2008

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Nhulunbuy to
Port Roper.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Port Roper in
the Northern Territory to Weipa in Queensland.

At 12:30 pm CST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Helen was estimated to be
70 kilometres south of Jabiru and
395 kilometres west of Alyangula and
moving east at 24 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low [EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE Helen] will move east across Arnhem Land and
may redevelop into a Tropical Cyclone once it moves into the western Gulf of
Carpentaria.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to affect coastal and
island communities between Nhulunbuy and Port Roper on Sunday morning.

Heavy rain is expected to cause flooding over the Top End.

Note that severe weather warnings remain current for Top End areas and for the
eastern Gulf of Carpentaria and Torres Strait in Queensland.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Helen at 12:30 pm CST:
.Centre located near...... 13.3 degrees South 132.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east at 24 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 80 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 992 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm CST Saturday 05 January.


This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre``
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#138 Postby Coredesat » Sat Jan 05, 2008 1:13 am

Kind of odd, but okay:

AXAU01 ADRM 050213
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
ISSUED BY DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT: 0212 UTC 05/01/2008
NAME: HELEN
DATA AT: 0000 UTC
LATITUDE: 13.3S
LONGITUDE: 132.1E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 25 NM [46 KM]
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: EAST [095 DEG]
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 12 KNOTS [22 KM/H]
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 30 KNOTS [55 KM/H]
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 45 KNOTS [85 KM/H]
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA

RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS:
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS:
DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: NOT APPLICABLE
PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: N/A
RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: N/A
STORM DEPTH: N/A
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME : LOCATION : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND : CENTRAL PRESSURE
[UTC] : DEGREES : NM [KM]: KNOTS[KM/H]: HPA
+12: 05/1200: 13.3S 134.6E: 060 [110]: 030 [055]: 992
+24: 06/0000: 13.7S 137.2E: 100 [185]: 035 [065]: 985
+36: 06/1200: 14.8S 139.6E: 110 [205]: 050 [095]: 980
+48: 07/0000: 16.2S 140.7E: 150 [280]: 055 [100]: 975
+60: 07/1200: 17.3S 140.8E: 180 [335]: 055 [100]: 975
+72: 08/0000: 18.4S 140.8E: 220 [405]: 040 [075]: 990
REMARKS:
EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE HELEN OVER LAND.
==
THERE WILL BE NO FURTHER BULLETINS FOR THIS SYSTEM UNLESS IT REINTENSIFIES.
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Re: Over Northern Territory: ex-TC Helen (TC 10S)

#139 Postby Crostorm » Sat Jan 05, 2008 3:56 am

IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 19
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 pm CST [5:30 pm EST] Saturday 5 January 2008

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Nhulunbuy to
Port Roper.

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal and island communities from
Karumba to Weipa in Queensland.

A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal areas from Port McArthur in Northern
Territory to Karumba in Queensland.

The Cyclone WATCH from Port Roper to Port McArthur has been cancelled.

At 3:30 pm CST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Helen was estimated to be
90 kilometres southeast of Jabiru and
325 kilometres west northwest of Alyangula and
moving east at 25 kilometres per hour.

EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE Helen continues to move steadily east across Arnhem Land and
may redevelop into a Tropical Cyclone once it moves into the western Gulf of
Carpentaria early on Sunday morning.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to affect coastal and
island communities between Nhulunbuy and Port Roper on Sunday morning.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between
Weipa and Karumba late Sunday.

GALES may develop along the coast between Port McArthur [NT] and Karumba [Qld]
on Monday.

Heavy rain is expected to cause flooding of low-lying areas over the eastern Top
End.

Note that severe weather warnings remain current for Top End areas and for the
eastern Gulf of Carpentaria and Torres Strait in Queensland.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Helen at 3:30 pm CST:
.Centre located near...... 13.2 degrees South 133.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 95 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east at 25 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 65 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 992 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 8:00 pm CST Saturday 05 January.


This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Image


24 hours rainfalls NorthWest

*Mango farm 187mm
*Mount nancar 175mm
*Adelaide east branch 194mm
*The pines 199mm
*Bebbom crossing 184mm
*Cullen river 152mm



http://www.bom.gov.au/hydro/flood/nt/index.shtml


IDD20510
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

FLOOD THREAT ADVICE
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 1047 CST Saturday 5 JANUARY 2008

AREA INVOLVED
Top End, Gulf Country and northern Victoria River districts.

RAINFALL SUMMARY
Widespread falls of 20 - 100 mm with falls of 100 - 200 mm over the central and
western Top End.

WEATHER SUMMARY
The monsoon trough lies over the Top End with an active monsoon flow to its
north. Ex-Tropical Cyclone "Helen" is currently near the township of Adelaide
River and moving east across the Top End. As a tropical Low it is expected to
move into the Gulf of Carpentaria on Sunday and redevelop to Tropical Cyclone
intensity.

FORECAST for the rest of today and Sunday
Scattered falls of 50mm in showers and storms over the Top End and Gulf Country.
Rain and locally heavy falls over the Top End will produce falls of up to 100mm
in bands of rain into the Low. Heavier falls could occur over central parts of
the Top End and then Arnhem Land and the Gulf Country as the Low moves further
east. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Helen is expected to redevelop in the Gulf of
Carpentaria on Sunday. Falls may lead to significant stream rises and flooding
of low-lying areas. Rainfall is expected to ease over the northern Victoria
River District from today and over the western Top End from Sunday.

OUTLOOK for Monday and Tuesday
Dependent on the movement of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Helen widespread showers and
storms could still affect the eastern Top End and Gulf Country with falls of
about 30 - 50mm. Heavy falls of 100mm or more are possible near the Low/Cyclone,
most likely in the Gulf region. These falls will lead to significant stream
rises and flooding of low lying areas.

NEXT ADVICE
Around 11 am Sunday.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.
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Re: Over Northern Territory: ex-TC Helen (TC 10S)

#140 Postby Crostorm » Sat Jan 05, 2008 4:31 am

WTXS31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (HELEN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 13.6S 133.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 133.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 13.6S 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 14.1S 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 15.1S 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.6S 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 134.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10S (HELEN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TD 10S HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER CENTRAL ARNHEM
LAND. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA
NEAR TAU 12, AND REINTENSIFY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR. AFTER CROSSING INTO THE
CAPE YORK PENINSULA THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052100Z AND 060900Z.//
NNNN
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