Timor Sea: Invest 90P

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#21 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Dec 30, 2007 3:41 pm

Wow, they are forecasting this to become a full-fledged cyclone...
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#22 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 30, 2007 4:20 pm

30/2030 UTC 17.9S 41.8E T2.0/2.0 91S -- South Indian Ocean
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#23 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Dec 30, 2007 6:37 pm

Quite a mess there...
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#24 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Dec 30, 2007 6:38 pm

T2.0 - supports a TD...
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2008 Archives

#25 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 30, 2007 7:29 pm

Image

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#26 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 30, 2007 7:55 pm

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


PERTURBATION TROPICALE 06-20072008

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1000 HPA.
POSITION LE 31 DECEMBRE A 04 HEURES LOCALES: 18.3 SUD / 42.0 EST
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUARANTE-DEUX DEGRES ZERO EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1420 KM A L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 19.2S/41.9E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 20.3S/41.7E
CYCL. TROP. INTENSE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 22.5S/41.5E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.
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SE Indian Ocean: Invest 92S

#27 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 30, 2007 8:32 pm

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0046UTC 31 DECEMBER 2007

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 40 nautical miles of
latitude eight decimal zero south [8.0S]
longitude ninety seven decimal two east [97.2E]
Recent movement : east at 8 knots
Central pressure: 994 hPa


AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles in northern quadrants


FORECAST
W/NW winds 30/40 knots rough to very rough seas moderate swell within 120
nautical miles in northern quadrants.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 31 December: Within 60 nautical miles of 8.7 south 99.3 east
Central pressure 992 hPa.

At 0000 UTC 01 January: Within 90 nautical miles of 10.1 south 101.9 east
Central pressure 992 hPa.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 31 December 2007.

WEATHER PERTH

Image

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#28 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 30, 2007 8:34 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.2S 95.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 245 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. A 301127Z
QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS THE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED
LLCC WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT THE CENTER AND STRONGER WINDS
ON THE PERIPHERY. HOWEVER, A 301518Z AMSU-B PASS INDICATES THE LLCC
MAY BE BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE. THE DISTURBANCE IS UNDER AN AREA
OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
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#29 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 30, 2007 8:34 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6S
132.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 133.3E, APPROXIMATELY 110 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
TURNING OVER LAND, BUT TRACKING EASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA. PRESSURE FALLS AT THE CENTER ARE NEAR 5 MB IN 24 HOURS.
A 301335Z AMSU-B IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING ON BOTH THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A 200 MB ANTICYCLONE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), CAUSING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
VALUES TO LOWER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995
MB. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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#30 Postby Chacor » Sun Dec 30, 2007 8:38 pm

"Tropical Perturbation"? There's no such category in English. It's a tropical disturbance.
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#31 Postby Chacor » Sun Dec 30, 2007 8:55 pm

Nothing from TCWC Jakarta, which makes me wonder if they are indeed ready to take over this season.
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#32 Postby Chacor » Sun Dec 30, 2007 8:58 pm

888
WTIO30 FMEE 310035

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/6/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6

2.A POSITION 2007/12/31 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3S / 42.0E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/12/31 12 UTC: 18.8S/42.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/01/01 00 UTC: 19.2S/41.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2008/01/01 12 UTC: 19.7S/41.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/01/02 00 UTC: 20.3S/41.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2008/01/02 12 UTC: 21.3S/41.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/01/03 00 UTC: 22.5S/41.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.0

LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY (LAST ONE IS METOP OF 1900Z) WERE STILL SHOWING
A LLCC OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS MOVED LITTLE WITH
ONLY A SMALL EASTNORTHEASTWARDS DRIFT. HOWEVER SINCE 2300 UTC, NEW BURST
OF CONVECTION (WITH TOP COLDER THAN -81C ON IR IMAGERY) HAS BUILT AROUND THE
CENTER. INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, BUT THE SYSTEM COULD BE
NOW ON AN INTENSIFICATION TREND.
AT 0000Z , IN THE ISLAND OF JUAN DE NOVA, MSLP VARIATION WITHIN THE LAST
24 HEURES IS IN THE -2 HPA RANGE.

ENVIRONMENT IS STILL FAVORABLE, SO INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST. DURING
THE 01/01/08, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BUILT SOUTWESTWARD
OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND CONSEQUENTLY,
IMPROVE THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THAT IS WHY INTENSIFICATION RATE IS A
LITTLE STRONGER THAN CLIMATOLOGY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BE CLOSED TO INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ABOUT TRACK, IT SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY TAKEN A MORE SOUTHERLY MOTION STILL
AT LOW SPEED TODAY BEFORE ACCELERATING, MORE OBVIOUSLY DURING THE
02/01/08, AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS MOVING AWAY IN THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. 30/12Z NWP MODELS RUN HAS SLIGHTY MOVED THEIR TRACKS EASTWARDS.
SO THAT IS THE CASE OF THE PRESENT GUIDANCE THAT IS CLOSED TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.=
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Re:

#33 Postby Chacor » Sun Dec 30, 2007 9:00 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:T2.0 - supports a TD...


JTWC will not upgrade Southern Hemisphere storms until TS strength.
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#34 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Dec 30, 2007 9:37 pm

The forecast is big: Intense Tropical Cyclone!
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Coredesat

#35 Postby Coredesat » Sun Dec 30, 2007 9:47 pm

If this becomes a nameable system, I imagine we'll get our answer. However, after Lee, I'm pretty sure they're not going to be doing much this season.
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#36 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 30, 2007 10:14 pm

31/0200 UTC 18.1S 41.6E T2.5/2.5 91S -- South Indian Ocean
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#37 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 30, 2007 10:26 pm

Image

Image

If this is not a cyclone already, then my name isn't Sandy Delgado Reyes Martínez Zamora Cabrera Alfonso Díaz Corvo.
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#38 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 31, 2007 12:06 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK


TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Monday 31 December 2007

An active monsoon trough lies across the Top End with a developing, slow moving
low about 200 kilometres east of Katherine. The low is expected to remain over
land for a day or so but could move into the Gulf of Carpentaria later in the
week.

The potential for development into a Tropical Cyclone over the next three days
is estimated to be:
Tuesday: Low
Wednesday: Moderate
Thursday: Moderate

NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical
cyclone development for each day... Low = 10% or less, Moderate = 20% - 40%,
High = 50% or more.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.
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#39 Postby Chacor » Mon Dec 31, 2007 4:35 am

It's a Tropical Depression now.

WTIO30 FMEE 310640

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/6/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6

2.A POSITION 2007/12/31 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2S / 41.1E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/12/31 18 UTC: 18.0S/41.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2008/01/01 06 UTC: 18.6S/41.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2008/01/01 18 UTC: 19.5S/41.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2008/01/02 06 UTC: 20.4S/41.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2008/01/02 18 UTC: 21.4S/41.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/01/03 06 UTC: 22.4S/41.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.5-

LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN ESTIMATED WITH A GOOD PROXY
ACCORDING TO MICRO-WAVE DATA (SSMI AT 0220 Z, WHICH SHOWS A BETTER
ORGANZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, AND A BETTER DEFINED CURVED
BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION LIGHTLY EASTWARD OF THE LLCC).

THIS CENTER IS TEMPORARILLY TRACKING WESTNORTWESTWARDS, AND IT SHOULD
CURVE EASTWARDS, BEFORE TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT
24
HOURS, INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY, AND ACCELERATING AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
SHIFTING EASTWARDS IN THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL

ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE. DURING THE 01/01/08, AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH
SHOULD BUILD SOUTWESTWARD OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD ENHANCED
POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND IMPROVE THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND ALLOW A RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OD THE SYSTEM.=
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Re: SW Indian: Tropical Depression 06R (91S - JTWC: TCFA)

#40 Postby Crostorm » Mon Dec 31, 2007 5:47 am

Image
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