Timor Sea: Invest 90P

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Coredesat

#61 Postby Coredesat » Mon Dec 31, 2007 10:26 pm

Doesn't look that great.

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Re: N Australia: INVEST 90S

#62 Postby Sanibel » Mon Dec 31, 2007 11:05 pm

Southern poleward and over into Australia. Interesting system with much latent potential evident in the bands.
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Re: SW Indian: Moderate Tropical Storm ELNUS (06R/09S)

#63 Postby Sanibel » Mon Dec 31, 2007 11:08 pm

Interesting track and location.
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#64 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jan 01, 2008 12:39 am

Very interesting start to the 2008 year!
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#65 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jan 01, 2008 12:40 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Tuesday 1 January 2008

An active monsoon trough lies across the Top End with a slow moving low about
250 kilometres southeast of Katherine. The low is expected to remain over land
for a day or so before moving into the Gulf of Carpentaria later in the week.

The potential for development into a Tropical Cyclone over the next three days
is estimated to be:
Wednesday: Low
Thursday: Low
Friday: Moderate

NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical
cyclone development for each day... Low = 10% or less, Moderate = 20% - 40%,
High = 50% or more.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

HAPPY NEW YEAR TO AUSTRALIA AND BoM.
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Re: SW Indian: Moderate Tropical Storm ELNUS (06R/09S)

#66 Postby Crostorm » Tue Jan 01, 2008 2:24 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 JAN 2008 Time : 053000 UTC
Lat : 19:09:30 S Lon : 40:54:29 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 / 994.6mb/ 39.0kt



6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.3 2.7 2.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : +4.3C Cloud Region Temp : -45.0C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.46 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.56 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 18:57:00 S Lon: 41:17:59 E

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

Good morning,I wish you all storm2k members a Happy New Year from Croatia
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Coredesat

#67 Postby Coredesat » Tue Jan 01, 2008 4:07 am

800
WWIO21 KNES 010847

A. 09S (ELNUS)

B. 01/0830Z

C. 19.1S

D. 40.4E

E. THREE/MET-7

F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...ELNUS FEELING A BIT OF NWLY SHEAR EXPOSING A LARGE PORTION
OF THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. THE LLC DOES APPEAR TO BE ELONGATING FROM NW
TO SSE AS THE NEW DEEP CONVECTION REINVIGORATES THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CIRCULATION BEFORE IT IS ROTATED OUT FROM UNDERNEATH THE CONVECTION.
WITH ALL THAT STATED THE CENTER OF THE ELONGATION IS THE CENTER FIX
ABOVE AND IT IS APPROX. 57 KM FROM THE CONVECTION OR .5 DEGREES FOR
SHEAR METHOD DT OF 3.0. PT IS 2.5 PLUS. AND MET IS SLOW DEV. TREND FOR
3.0. FT IS 3.0 BASED ON DT...GALLINA

ADDL POSITIONS...19.2S 40.8E 01/0206Z SSMI 85
18.8S 40.6E 01/0522Z SSMIS 91
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#68 Postby wyq614 » Tue Jan 01, 2008 5:24 am

怎么减弱了呢?
Why is it weakening??

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 JAN 2008 Time : 083000 UTC
Lat : 19:15:45 S Lon : 40:51:30 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 / 997.0mb/ 35.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.5 2.1 2.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -77.8C Cloud Region Temp : -52.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

by the way, HAPPY NEW YEAR FROM CHINA
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Coredesat

#69 Postby Coredesat » Tue Jan 01, 2008 6:09 am

Ignore the weakening flag, any appreciable decrease in any T-number in the CIMSS ADT will trigger it.

The CIMSS ADT is usually only good for when a system has an eye (which this one does not), as it compares cloud top and center temperatures.
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Coredesat

#70 Postby Coredesat » Tue Jan 01, 2008 6:14 am

Not sure why NRL doesn't have an updated image. Here's one from CIMSS instead.

Image
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Coredesat

#71 Postby Coredesat » Tue Jan 01, 2008 6:16 am

No longer expected to develop.

WTAU06 APRF 010716
IDW23200
40:3:1:24:13S107E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0715UTC 1 JANUARY 2008

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC a Tropical Low was located within 25 nautical miles of
latitude twelve decimal eight south [12.8S]
longitude one hundred and six decimal seven east [106.7E]
Recent movement : east southeast at 14 knots
Central pressure: 994 hPa


AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles in northern quadrants


FORECAST
W/NW winds 25/35 knots rough to very rough seas moderate swell within 120
nautical miles in northern quadrants. Winds easing below 34 knots by 0000UTC 2
January.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 01 January: Within 35 nautical miles of 13.7 south 109.9 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.

At 0600 UTC 02 January: Within 65 nautical miles of 14.7 south 112.6 east
Central pressure 998 hPa.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 01 January 2008.

WEATHER PERTH
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#72 Postby wyq614 » Tue Jan 01, 2008 11:25 am

我觉得它快挂了。

I think it is about to dissipate.
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#73 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jan 01, 2008 4:26 pm

01/2030 UTC 20.1S 40.2E T3.5/3.5 ELNUS -- South Indian Ocean
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#74 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jan 01, 2008 4:30 pm

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1859UTC 1 JANUARY 2008

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC a Tropical Low was located within 25 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal six south [14.6S]
longitude one hundred and ten decimal six east [110.6E]
Recent movement : east southeast at 16 knots
Central pressure: 994 hPa


AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles in northern quadrants


FORECAST
W/NW winds 25/35 knots rough to very rough seas moderate swell within 100
nautical miles in northern quadrants. Winds easing below 34 knots by 0000UTC 2
January.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 02 January: Within 45 nautical miles of 15.1 south 113.0 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.

At 1800 UTC 02 January: Within 70 nautical miles of 15.8 south 114.6 east
Central pressure 998 hPa.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 02 January 2008.

WEATHER PERTH
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#75 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jan 01, 2008 6:10 pm

Wow, supports 55 kt...pressure probably around 990mb.
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#76 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jan 01, 2008 7:30 pm

:uarrow:

Image

Doesn't look very good.
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Re: SW Indian: Moderate Tropical Storm ELNUS (06R/09S)

#77 Postby Crostorm » Wed Jan 02, 2008 2:24 am

WTXS32 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELNUS) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 20.1S 40.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 40.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 20.6S 39.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 21.4S 39.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 22.2S 39.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 22.9S 40.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 40.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELNUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM WEST
OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON INFRA-
RED IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 012319Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A
WEAK, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED
NORTHWEST OF CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE LLCC REMAINED DIFFICULT TO LO-
CATE, THEREFORE, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN POSITIONING AND MOTION AND
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD. TC 09S IS LOCATED
WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST REMAINING THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE.
THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH NEAR THE 24-HOUR FORECAST POINT AND
TC 09S SHOULD ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY.
THIS FORECAST TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS. IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD ALSO
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 45 KNOTS AFTER TAU 24.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAMPER SIGNIF-
CANT CONSOLIDATION AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021500Z AND 030300Z.//

NNNN

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Re: SW Indian: Moderate Tropical Storm ELNUS (06R/09S)

#78 Postby Crostorm » Wed Jan 02, 2008 2:26 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 JAN 2008 Time : 053000 UTC
Lat : 20:17:30 S Lon : 39:57:00 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 / 997.0mb/ 35.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.1 2.0 2.3 2.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -0.9C Cloud Region Temp : -11.7C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.59^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

Image
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Coredesat

#79 Postby Coredesat » Wed Jan 02, 2008 5:02 am

WTIO30 FMEE 020622

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/6/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-ELNUS)

2.A POSITION 2008/01/02 AT 0600 UTC :
19.9S / 39.9E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 200 SO: 150 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/02 18 UTC: 20.6S/39.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/01/03 06 UTC: 21.6S/39.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2008/01/03 18 UTC: 22.6S/40.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2008/01/04 06 UTC: 23.3S/40.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2008/01/04 18 UTC: 23.6S/40.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2008/01/05 06 UTC: 24.0S/40.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 AND CI=2.5

THE LLCC IS EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO AN IMPORTANT
WESTNORTHWESTWARDS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, WITH TYPICAL CIRRUS ARCUS ON THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE.

ELNUS IS STATIONNARY ON THE NOTRHWESTERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURES SHIFTING TO THE EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARDS
TOWARDS A WEAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BELT, THEN
SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARD A POLAR TROUGH, WITHOUT JOINING IT.
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE UPPER LEVELS CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY.
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#80 Postby Chacor » Wed Jan 02, 2008 7:21 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 4:40 pm CST Wednesday 2 January 2008

An active monsoon trough lies across the Top End with a slow moving low about
200 kilometres south of Darwin. The low is expected to remain over land for a
day or so before moving quickly eastward into the Gulf of Carpentaria during
Friday. The northern Top End will experience increased monsoonal weather over
the next few days.

The potential for development into a Tropical Cyclone over the next three days
is estimated to be:
Thursday: Low
Friday: Moderate
Saturday: High

NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical
cyclone development for each day... Low = 10% or less, Moderate = 20% - 40%,
High = 50% or more.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.
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