NW Pacific: INVEST 98W northwest of Brunei - JTWC POOR

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Chacor
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NW Pacific: INVEST 98W northwest of Brunei - JTWC POOR

#1 Postby Chacor » Thu Dec 27, 2007 6:17 am

ABPW10 PGTW 271030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/271030Z-280600ZDEC2007//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.7N 113.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 140 NM NORTHWEST OF BRUNEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICT
A BROAD (BUT WELL-DEFINED) LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA. WHILE THE WIND FIELD TOWARD THE CIRCULATION
CENTER REMAINS RATHER WEAK (10 KNOTS), GRADIENT-ENHANCED FLOW AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTHEASTERN/NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION IS GENERATING MUCH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS
AT A RADIUS OF 100 NM (ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS). THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS, AND THIS IS LIMITING DEVELOPMENT DUE TO SUSTAINED
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED POOR AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

Image
Image
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#2 Postby Chacor » Thu Dec 27, 2007 6:18 am

JMA 06Z:


LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 08N 114E WEST SLOWLY.
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Coredesat

Re: NW Pacific: INVEST 98W northwest of Brunei - JTWC POOR

#3 Postby Coredesat » Thu Dec 27, 2007 6:32 am

548
TPPN10 PGTW 270928 COR

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NW OF BORNEO

B. 27/0830Z

C. 6.7N/3

D. 113.4E/9

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS (27/0830Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC

49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN SHEARED 44NM FROM
LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. PT AGREES. DBO DT. CORRECTED
DTG IN LINES B AND F.

UEHARA
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#4 Postby Chacor » Fri Dec 28, 2007 5:45 am

ABPW10 PGTW 280600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/280600Z-290600ZDEC2007//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.7N 113.4E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 114.2E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF BRUNEI. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 280059Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW FLARING CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 272201Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE
SHOWS THE CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF
THE STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
LITTLE TO NO DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO
THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DE-
VELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//
NNNN

Image
LLCC fully exposed to east of convection, btw.


LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 08N 114E WEST SLOWLY.
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Coredesat

#5 Postby Coredesat » Fri Dec 28, 2007 6:01 am

Not surprised, there's some pretty strong easterly upper-level flow over it.
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Coredesat

#6 Postby Coredesat » Sun Dec 30, 2007 6:34 am

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.3N
113.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 111.4E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 300239Z AMSUB MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW FLARING CONVECTION ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT HOWEVER THE
INCREASE FROM MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVENT CONVECTION FROM ORGANIZING AND BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.


Image

Yeah, sounds about right. Dead from JMA.
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#7 Postby wyq614 » Mon Dec 31, 2007 1:42 pm

不管是98W还是99W,都不会有前途。

Both 98W and 99W will by no means be promising.
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