INVEST 95L: NE Atlantic : Discussions & Images

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INVEST 95L: NE Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Dec 29, 2007 9:41 am

On NRL is not yet because there are problems in the site with the pics that haved not been updated so I assume as soon they fix it 95L will appear.But the models came out,so its a guarantee that 95L is up.

Original thread.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=99549
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Re: INVEST 95L in Northeast Atlantic

#2 Postby TheEuropean » Sat Dec 29, 2007 9:43 am

I just posted the first models in the original thread:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=99549

This has a real chance to become a second Zeta.
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Re: INVEST 95L in Northeast Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sat Dec 29, 2007 10:17 am

There are some problems with images in other sites that are not updating this morning so here is a image from ramsdis that are updated.

Image
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INVEST 95L Models Thread

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sat Dec 29, 2007 10:31 am

WHXX01 KWBC 291418
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1418 UTC SAT DEC 29 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952007) 20071229 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071229 1200 071230 0000 071230 1200 071231 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.2N 37.9W 27.7N 38.0W 26.9N 38.6W 25.3N 40.0W
BAMD 27.2N 37.9W 28.2N 36.6W 29.0N 34.9W 29.8N 34.6W
BAMM 27.2N 37.9W 27.9N 37.2W 27.7N 36.7W 27.2N 37.3W
LBAR 27.2N 37.9W 28.6N 36.3W 29.5N 33.7W 30.5N 31.5W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071231 1200 080101 1200 080102 1200 080103 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.5N 41.4W 21.7N 45.0W 22.1N 51.0W 26.2N 54.0W
BAMD 29.7N 35.3W 27.8N 39.9W 25.0N 45.1W 22.1N 50.3W
BAMM 26.5N 38.9W 23.6N 45.6W 20.1N 53.1W 19.4N 57.8W
LBAR 30.9N 29.7W 28.9N 27.7W 25.3N 24.4W 23.4N 18.9W
SHIP 39KTS 28KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 39KTS 28KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.2N LONCUR = 37.9W DIRCUR = 20DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 26.2N LONM12 = 38.3W DIRM12 = 17DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 25.2N LONM24 = 38.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 170NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

Look at the BAMM track.

Image

Image
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Re: INVEST 95L Models Thread

#5 Postby dixiebreeze » Sat Dec 29, 2007 10:54 am

Headed right for you, Luis! Remarkable on Dec. 29.
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Re: INVEST 95L in Northeast Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#6 Postby dixiebreeze » Sat Dec 29, 2007 10:56 am

In the IR floater loop 95 is really firing up.
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 29, 2007 11:10 am

Image

Looks good for subtropical although the center is still very broad.
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#8 Postby Cyclone1 » Sat Dec 29, 2007 11:44 am

I saw this coming, but still I'm shocked at an invest on December 29. It's just not right.

Wow... Wake up, NHC we got ourselves a fighting season.
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#9 Postby Tstormwatcher » Sat Dec 29, 2007 11:58 am

Wow, this has surprised me. Models show it moving southwest. Wonder what its chances will be for becoming tropical?
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#10 Postby JonathanBelles » Sat Dec 29, 2007 12:06 pm

Based on what the calendar says, I dont give this much chance. Shear is falling in its modeled path, but is still high. Water temps are marginal, but with storms this time of year like Epsilon and Zeta, I think a storm could survive in these conditions. Any growth will be slow, if at all.
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#11 Postby Cyclone1 » Sat Dec 29, 2007 12:07 pm

SouthWEST? Havn't had a chance to look at the models, but that's very Zeta-esque. Honestly, I give this almost a 90% chance of becoming either Pablo or Arthur in the next few days.
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#12 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 29, 2007 12:08 pm

Image
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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 29, 2007 12:13 pm

Image

Image
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Re: INVEST 95L in Northeast Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#14 Postby sargeabernathy » Sat Dec 29, 2007 12:50 pm

Per the NHC:

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
INTERESTING FEATURE FOR THE DAY IS THE DEEP CYCLONE CENTERED
NEAR 27N38W. THIS SYSTEM HAS REMAINED STATIONARY FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN A COUPLE OF BANDS
LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. QUIKSCAT WINDS SUGGEST THAT
THERE ARE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
AND SE QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM...THAT SEEMS TO BE ACQUIRING SOME
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. MOST OF THE COMMON TYPE OF
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL COLD LOW WITH CIRCULATION
EXTENDING TO THE SURFACE...AND THIS IS THE CASE. ACCORDING TO
THE UW-CIMSS PRODUCTS...VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM IS
RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT THIS LOW-MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT MAY
ONLY LAST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO BEFORE STRONG UPPER WESTERLIES
IMPACT THE SYSTEM WITH THE APPROACH OF A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MEANDER IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS OR SO. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCES MOVE THIS SYSTEM TO THE
SW ACROSS THE OPEN OCEAN WATERS. ELSEWHERE...THE W ATLC REMAINS
DOMINATED BY RIDGING WITH THE MID AND UPPER AXIS EXTENDING NWD
FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH BERMUDA. A JETSTREAM BRANCH IS RIDING
ON THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE BRINGING SOME UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE W ATLC...BUT MAINLY N OF 30N. AN
UPPER TROUGH ALSO REMAINS STUCK OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
EXTENDING SW FROM A CUT-OFF LOW NEAR 27N38W TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. A TROPICAL JETSTREAM RUNS FROM THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
ALL THE WAY TO THE NE TO THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA CROSSING JUST
N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF
TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET.
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#15 Postby Coredesat » Sat Dec 29, 2007 12:52 pm

I had mentioned in the old thread that the globals were deepening the system somewhat, then moving it rapidly west-southwest while weakening very rapidly. Looks like that's what the tropical models are thinking, as well.
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Re: INVEST 95L in Northeast Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#16 Postby Coredesat » Sat Dec 29, 2007 12:54 pm

sargeabernathy wrote:ACCORDING TO
THE UW-CIMSS PRODUCTS...VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM IS
RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT THIS LOW-MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT MAY
ONLY LAST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO BEFORE STRONG UPPER WESTERLIES
IMPACT THE SYSTEM WITH THE APPROACH OF A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH.


This is probably why the NHC isn't incredibly interested in this system at the moment.
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Re: INVEST 95L Models Thread

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sat Dec 29, 2007 12:57 pm

12z CMC

For those who follow the canadian model,here is the 12z run.
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#18 Postby Coredesat » Sat Dec 29, 2007 1:05 pm

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Re: INVEST 95L in Northeast Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#19 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Dec 29, 2007 1:15 pm

Looking less frontal by the hour.



Of course, where this is, naming it STS Pablo would be purely an academic exercise.
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Re: INVEST 95L Models Thread

#20 Postby cycloneye » Sat Dec 29, 2007 1:19 pm

12z GFDL

WHXX04 KWBC 291726
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 95L

INITIAL TIME 12Z DEC 29

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 26.9 38.0 20./ 5.0
6 27.3 38.0 13./ 3.5
12 27.3 37.8 69./ 1.5
18 26.8 37.8 178./ 5.0
24 26.0 37.9 188./ 7.9
30 25.4 38.0 192./ 6.6
36 25.1 38.3 223./ 4.2
42 24.8 38.8 239./ 4.5
48 24.4 39.4 237./ 7.4
54 23.9 40.3 240./ 9.6
60 23.2 42.0 246./16.7
66 22.4 43.9 247./19.4
72 21.5 45.9 248./20.9
78 20.8 47.4 245./15.1
84 20.3 49.1 253./16.5
90 20.0 50.6 259./14.7

STORM DISSIPATED AT 90 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

12z GFDL animation

Apart from tracking it SW towards the Leewards,it not does much with it intensitywise.
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