INVEST 95L: NE Atlantic : Discussions & Images

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#121 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 30, 2007 8:48 pm

RL3AO wrote:I'm sure the NHC is rooting against it. They probably don't want to deal with the media of STS Arthur forming in early January.


Nothing is set on stone. If conditions are in favor, a tropical cyclone can form at any time of the year. Nonetheless, what is normal, more or less, is b/w June and November. The media always hypes everything.
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#122 Postby Cyclone1 » Sun Dec 30, 2007 8:54 pm

Squarethecircle wrote:I'm looking back on this thing now, and it really seems to have lost it since the first page. In fact, I'd bet that if I hadn't seen the storm listed anywhere, I would have discarded it. A nice looking storm, yes, and a better chance than most, but its chances seem to be going down. It's getting too far north regardless.

Nevertheless, I am behind this storm 100%. Go 95L!


Isn't it moving southwest?
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#123 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Dec 30, 2007 9:37 pm

Weakening and less organized but more tropical it looks like.

Will it be declared an (S)TS in the post-analysis though?
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Re: Re:

#124 Postby Squarethecircle » Sun Dec 30, 2007 10:17 pm

Cyclone1 wrote:
Squarethecircle wrote:I'm looking back on this thing now, and it really seems to have lost it since the first page. In fact, I'd bet that if I hadn't seen the storm listed anywhere, I would have discarded it. A nice looking storm, yes, and a better chance than most, but its chances seem to be going down. It's getting too far north regardless.

Nevertheless, I am behind this storm 100%. Go 95L!


Isn't it moving southwest?


It's motion doesn't change the fact that it is getting too far north. Anything that far north and west at this point is not likely to form, even if it hit a spot of fairly good conditions.

That, or I screwed up, either way, it's getting too far north as above. :wink:
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#125 Postby Coredesat » Mon Dec 31, 2007 12:04 am

Image

It's finished. The low-level circulation is very broad and sharply elongated northwest to southeast.
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#126 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 31, 2007 1:34 am

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 31 2007

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A LARGE LOW PRES SYSTEM...PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS...CONTINUES
TO SPIN CENTERED NEAR 27N35W. A FORTUITOUS REPORT FROM DRIFTING
BUOY 62901...LOCATED VERY NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...REVEALED A
PRES OF 1004.6 MB AT 00Z SO ACCORDINGLY THE MIN PRES WAS DROPPED
TO 1004 MB. THIS LOW HAS BEEN MEANDERING ABOUT FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS BUT NOW APPEARS TO BE ON A SW HEADING AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE IS PASSING TO THE NE ALLOWING A BUILDING MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO BE THE MAIN STEERING ELEMENT. THE LOW IS A LITTLE MORE
ASYMMETRIC AND ELONGATED TONIGHT WITH CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE
NW QUADRANT N OF 27N BETWEEN 35W-39W AND IN A NARROW BANDED
STRUCTURE TO THE E OF THE CENTER FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 30W-32W.
THE STRONGEST WINDS...TO 40 KT...ARE LOCATED IN THE NW
SEMICIRCLE WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST DUE TO A 1029 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N49W. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE SW AND
WEAKENING. THIS LOW...OR WHAT EVER IS LEFT OF IT...WILL LIKELY
GET PICKED UP AND ABSORBED BY A LARGE UPPER TROUGH LATER THIS
WEEK.
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#127 Postby Coredesat » Mon Dec 31, 2007 5:47 am

Dying a very gruesome death - note the streaks of convection, which indicate just how strong the shear is (40 kt and increasing rapidly based on CIMSS graphic).

Image

Image
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#128 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 31, 2007 6:22 am

31/0545 UTC 26.6N 36.1W T1.5/1.5 95L -- Atlantic Ocean

Dvorak is going mad!!!
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Re: INVEST 95L: NE Atlantic : Discussions & Images (T1.5)

#129 Postby Pedro Fernández » Mon Dec 31, 2007 7:42 am

Hello folks :D !

This is my first post in this forum but I don't want to do an offtopic here (I'm sorry). Only say that we have been following closely 95L progresses from Spain. In my Country there is a big weather enthusiast community, including storm-spotters, storm-chasers and many other. We are also very interested on tropical cyclones, since VINCE above all...

Talking about this system, I have been wondering the reason by what NHC has not labeled the 95L as a subtropical depression; quikSCAT drawed lots of 30/35KT windbarbs, DVORAK numbers of 2.5, and visual appearance of a subtropical cyclone......

Warm regards for everybody and the S2K Team & Happy New Year :wink:
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#130 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 31, 2007 8:03 am

Bienvenido a S2k. Espero que pases un buen tiempo con nosotros. Este foro es bastante activo, especialmente durante la temporada de huracanes.

Welcome to S2k. I hope you will have a good time with us. This forum is pretty active, especially during the hurricane season.
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#131 Postby Chacor » Mon Dec 31, 2007 9:57 am

NHC's killed it.

WONT41 KNHC 311440
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM AST MON DEC 31 2007

A NON TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES...IS
PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A LARGE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
THE CENTER. HOWEVER...SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED...AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL OR SUB-TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

NO ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS ON THIS SYSTEM
ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Re: INVEST 95L: NE Atlantic : Discussions & Images (T1.5)

#132 Postby wxman57 » Mon Dec 31, 2007 10:30 am

Bones can now say with confidence:

Image
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Re:

#133 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Dec 31, 2007 10:33 am

Chacor wrote:NHC's killed it.

WONT41 KNHC 311440
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM AST MON DEC 31 2007

A NON TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES...IS
PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A LARGE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
THE CENTER. HOWEVER...SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED...AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL OR SUB-TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

NO ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS ON THIS SYSTEM
ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN




They didn't really kill it. NHC was more like Dr G., Medical Examiner. They just cracked open the sternum and decided the patient died of deep vein thrombosis causing a pulmonary embolism, or, in this case, dry air, cool SSTs and increasing shear.
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Re: INVEST 95L: NE Atlantic : Discussions & Images (T1.5)

#134 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Dec 31, 2007 10:35 am

wxman57 wrote:Bones can now say with confidence:

Image



And Wxman57 is more like the mortician, that will drain the blood and replace it with antifreeze, dress the body is nice clothes, dab on some powder so it doesn't look so pale, and organize the public viewing of the corpse.
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#135 Postby RL3AO » Mon Dec 31, 2007 12:22 pm

The season isn't dead until 7pm EST! :lol:
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Re:

#136 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Dec 31, 2007 12:29 pm

RL3AO wrote:The season isn't dead until 7pm EST! :lol:



In the sense that, from what I heard, after somebody is beheaded, some of the brain cells don't completely die for a few hours.


Or that TV show where Andrew Zimmern eats disgusting and most very treyf food as he describes himself as a nice Jewish boy from New York. Cutting the still beating heart out of a snake. Dropping it in a glass of strong liquor to kill any germs.

The snake organs in a cocktail is supposed to be an aphrodisiac in certain Asian cultures, the way raw oysters are in the West.


Anyway, there are a few living cells left, maybe, in the organism that is the 2007 Atlantic Basin season, but it is beyond just pining for the fjords.
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#137 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 31, 2007 12:39 pm

Image

95LINVEST.40kts-1006mb-263N-361W

More extratropical, more intense.
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#138 Postby RL3AO » Mon Dec 31, 2007 12:43 pm

The circulation looks better at least.
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Re:

#139 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Dec 31, 2007 12:58 pm

RL3AO wrote:The circulation looks better at least.



I dunno, looks like a low cloud swirl, mostly cold stable strato-cu, with any showers removed from near the center.
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Re: Re:

#140 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Dec 31, 2007 1:00 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
RL3AO wrote:The circulation looks better at least.



I dunno, looks like a low cloud swirl, mostly cold stable strato-cu, with any showers removed from near the center.



Tropical season is over, get used to it. The next chance for interesting weather, that could bring damaging winds, maybe even tornadoes from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley down to Texas and the Gulf Coast is discussed at this most awesome Storm2K thread.
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