INVEST 95L: NE Atlantic : Discussions & Images

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Ed Mahmoud

Re: INVEST 95L in Northeast Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#81 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Dec 29, 2007 10:08 pm

Seems like time for an advisory has passed. Maybe another WONT41 in half an hour.
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#82 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 29, 2007 10:25 pm

Image
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Re: INVEST 95L in Northeast Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#83 Postby tropicana » Sat Dec 29, 2007 10:26 pm

or maybe another special advisory won't come til tomorrow morning, since there would be no real need to issue another special advisory tonight if not much has changed. Cant believe i stayed up late for this! haha well i woulda been up anyways.
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Re: INVEST 95L in Northeast Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#84 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Dec 29, 2007 10:27 pm

tropicana wrote:or maybe another special advisory won't come til tomorrow morning, since there would be no real need to issue another special advisory tonight if not much has changed. Cant believe i stayed up late for this! haha well i woulda been up anyways.




10:30 pm is late in Toronto on a Saturday?
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Re: INVEST 95L in Northeast Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#85 Postby tropicana » Sat Dec 29, 2007 10:37 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
tropicana wrote:or maybe another special advisory won't come til tomorrow morning, since there would be no real need to issue another special advisory tonight if not much has changed. Cant believe i stayed up late for this! haha well i woulda been up anyways.




10:30 pm is late in Toronto on a Saturday?


not really i just said it so the statement would have more impact haaaaa
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Re: INVEST 95L in Northeast Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#86 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Dec 29, 2007 10:44 pm

Looks like a subtropical system.
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Re: INVEST 95L in Northeast Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#87 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 29, 2007 10:48 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:Looks like a subtropical system.


Doesn't look like your typical polar low, doesn't look tropical, it must look subtropical!!!
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#88 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 29, 2007 10:53 pm

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC SUN DEC 30 2007

WARNINGS.
...ATLC GALE WARNING...
.LOW NEAR 28N37W 1007 MB MEANDERING. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN
300 NM N AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 30 TO 35 KT SEAS 9 TO 14
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW...POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
26N37W 1007 MB. WITHIN 300 NM NW AND 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS
30 TO 35 KT SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW...POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
23N41W 1007 MB. WITHIN 300 NM OF LOW EXCEPT 120 NM SE QUADRANT
WINDS 30 TO 35 KT SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
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Re: INVEST 95L in Northeast Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#89 Postby Sanibel » Sat Dec 29, 2007 11:06 pm

Lingering Nina heat.
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Re: INVEST 95L in Northeast Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#90 Postby MGC » Sat Dec 29, 2007 11:25 pm

Looks like a pretty good system to me....Based on previous upgrades this should be at least a STS. Of course the NHC is the final judge. If it continues to organize I think the NHC will have no other choise than to upgrade.....MGC
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#91 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 29, 2007 11:26 pm

At 10 or 11 PM they should have issued a STDS.
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#92 Postby JonathanBelles » Sat Dec 29, 2007 11:28 pm

HURAKAN wrote:At 10 or 11 PM they should have issued a STDS.


It's 11:26 right now.
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#93 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Dec 30, 2007 12:01 am

they are probably waiting to see if it can hold over night before starting advisories! I dont blame them since systems in this area often open back up rapidly. i imagine if it is still at least at its present organization in the morning they will upgrade, since T-numbers are 2.5
we will see...among other things :)
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Re: INVEST 95L in Northeast Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#94 Postby wyq614 » Sun Dec 30, 2007 12:22 am

tropicana wrote:or maybe another special advisory won't come til tomorrow morning, since there would be no real need to issue another special advisory tonight if not much has changed. Cant believe i stayed up late for this! haha well i woulda been up anyways.


没有必要,不要忘了在这里还有来自世界另一端的我们。

There's no need. Don't you forget we, from the other side of the world, are available here in storm2k.
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#95 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 30, 2007 1:07 am

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 30 2007

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE EASTERN ATLANTIC DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS MORE OR LESS IN THE SAME SPOT THAT IT HAS BEEN RESIDING FOR
THE LAST WEEK OR SO. THE SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION NUMBER IS
S-T 2.5. A HURRICANE FORECASTER WROTE A DSAAT BULLETIN AT
29/1900 UTC...THIS FEATURE THAT IS ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE AZORES GRADUALLY HAS BEEN ACQUIRING SOME SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO. IT HAS BEEN
PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF ITS CIRCULATION CENTER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY BECOME
A SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
FURTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS
NECESSARY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 28.5N TO 30N BETWEEN 33W AND 37W. A THIN LINE OF CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS STILL IS ALONG 25N34W 20N37W 18N40W 13N50W
10N57W 9N60W AND NOT QUITE TO THE COAST OF EXTREME EASTERN/
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA AS IT WAS 16 HOURS AGO. PATCHES OF
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ALREADY-DISSIPATED ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH...ORIGINATING FROM
THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM
NORTH OF 17N46W 12N57W 11N65W 13N71W. THE CLOUDS/POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WESTERN END OF THIS LINE ARE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MEANDER DURING THE NEXT
36 HOURS BEFORE BEING PUSHED TOWARD THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST
BY A DEVELOPING MIDDLE-OCEAN RIDGE ON MONDAY. THE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TODAY MAY BE THE LAST OPPORTUNITY
FOR THIS SYSTEM TO GAIN A BIT MORE ORGANIZATION TO ITS
PRECIPITATION PATTERN AND MAKE THE TRANSITION TO A NAMED
SUBTROPICAL STORM GIVEN THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY LATER TODAY.
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#96 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 30, 2007 1:12 am

Image

Continues to looks subtropical.
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Re: INVEST 95L in Northeast Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#97 Postby Crostorm » Sun Dec 30, 2007 4:34 am

Image
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#98 Postby Chacor » Sun Dec 30, 2007 4:58 am

Reminds me of a system that's becoming extratropical.
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Re: INVEST 95L in Northeast Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#99 Postby cycloneye » Sun Dec 30, 2007 8:12 am

30/1145 UTC 27.1N 35.4W ST2.5/2.5 95L -- Atlantic Ocean


Image

I think that the folks of NHC are not inclined to classify it.It looks ragged.
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Re: INVEST 95L Models Thread

#100 Postby wxman57 » Sun Dec 30, 2007 8:47 am

New runs. Not much change. However, remember that BAMs are not reliable in the subtropics.

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952007) 20071230 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071230 1200 071231 0000 071231 1200 080101 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.2N 35.4W 26.6N 36.7W 25.6N 38.8W 23.7N 41.6W
BAMD 27.2N 35.4W 27.9N 34.2W 28.1N 34.4W 27.5N 35.7W
BAMM 27.2N 35.4W 27.0N 35.7W 26.6N 36.9W 25.7N 39.4W
LBAR 27.2N 35.4W 27.6N 33.7W 27.9N 32.0W 27.4N 30.8W
SHIP 35KTS 35KTS 35KTS 34KTS
DSHP 35KTS 35KTS 35KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080101 1200 080102 1200 080103 1200 080104 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.2N 45.2W 20.0N 52.5W 21.0N 57.1W 20.3N 59.1W
BAMD 26.6N 38.0W 24.3N 43.9W 21.7N 50.7W 19.3N 50.6W
BAMM 24.4N 43.1W 21.9N 51.1W 22.7N 55.7W 24.7N 52.4W
LBAR 26.6N 29.4W 24.0N 26.0W 22.0N 20.6W 20.4N 15.9W
SHIP 27KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 27KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.2N LONCUR = 35.4W DIRCUR = 100DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 27.8N LONM12 = 37.0W DIRM12 = 97DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 27.2N LONM24 = 37.9W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 175NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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