SW Indian Ocean: Tropical Depression ex.Lola (TC 25S)

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46080
Age: 30
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

#21 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Mar 21, 2008 5:58 am

Image

21/0830 UTC 15.4S 60.5E T1.5/1.5 94S -- South Indian Ocean
0 likes   

gigabyte89
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 45
Age: 28
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 9:10 am
Location: Mauritius

#22 Postby gigabyte89 » Fri Mar 21, 2008 7:44 am

Intenfied slightly according to Meteo France
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10231
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#23 Postby Chacor » Fri Mar 21, 2008 8:12 am

Image

WTIO30 FMEE 211219

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/14/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14

2.A POSITION 2008/03/21 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3S / 60.2E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/22 00 UTC: 16.0S/59.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/03/22 12 UTC: 16.2S/58.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2008/03/23 00 UTC: 16.2S/57.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/03/23 12 UTC: 16.1S/56.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/03/24 00 UTC: 15.7S/55.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/03/24 12 UTC: 15.6S/55.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0
THE CIRCULATION IS BAD DEFINED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO A MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROPICAL
EASTERLY JET (TEJ).
SEVERAL CENTER MAY POSSIBLES, THE MENTIONNED ONE IS SUPPOSED TO BE MAIN.
ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES REMAINS LOW AND THE GRADIENT IS WEAK IN THE
CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION. THE MSLP IS ESTIMATED AT 997 HPA, REFEERING TO
ST-BRANDON SLP 999.6 HPA AT 0900UTC.
WINDS , ACCORDING TO 0137Z QUIKSCAT DATA, ARE STILL WEAK 20/25KT NEAR THE
CENTER, REACHING VERY LOCCALY 30KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO
THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONSOLIDATED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND SHOWS NOW
A CURVED BAND PATTERN.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTING TO IMPROVE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK
WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AT THIS STAGE OF INTENSITY , THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
REGULAR WARNINGS.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46080
Age: 30
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

#24 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Mar 21, 2008 9:02 am

Image

Image

Looking better.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46080
Age: 30
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: SW Indian Ocean: Tropical Disturbance 14R (94S)

#25 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Mar 21, 2008 9:43 am

Image

WTXS21 PGTW 211400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6S 60.5E TO 16.4S 56.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 211230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.7S 59.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.5S
62.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 59.9E, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM NORTH-
EAST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 210955Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT INTO THE WEST QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATE A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRON-
MENT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1002 MB. MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE WITH DECREASING SHEAR AS WELL AS IMPROVED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AS WELL AS
A SHARP INCREASE IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 221400Z.//
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46080
Age: 30
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

#26 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Mar 21, 2008 12:04 pm

Image

21/1430 UTC 15.2S 59.7E T2.0/2.0 94S -- South Indian Ocean
0 likes   

gigabyte89
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 45
Age: 28
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 9:10 am
Location: Mauritius

#27 Postby gigabyte89 » Fri Mar 21, 2008 12:58 pm

:D
0 likes   

parvez_savage
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 25
Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2008 10:17 am

Re: SW Indian Ocean: Tropical Disturbance 14R (94S) TCFA

#28 Postby parvez_savage » Fri Mar 21, 2008 1:35 pm

Gigabyte..i am from mauritius too.. But i don't want it to intensify and come to Mauritius. What we actually need is rain, not more than that..
0 likes   

User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:

Re: SW Indian Ocean: Tropical Disturbance 14R (94S) TCFA

#29 Postby P.K. » Fri Mar 21, 2008 1:47 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 211824

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/14/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14

2.A POSITION 2008/03/21 AT 1800 UTC :
15.6S / 59.9E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 100 SO: 140 NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/22 06 UTC: 16.1S/58.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/03/22 18 UTC: 16.2S/57.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2008/03/23 06 UTC: 16.2S/56.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2008/03/23 18 UTC: 16.1S/56.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/03/24 06 UTC: 16.0S/55.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2008/03/24 18 UTC: 16.1S/55.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-
ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES REMAIN LOW AND THE GRADIENT IS WEAK IN THE CENTER
OF THE CIRCULATION (SO WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE RATHER WEAK).
THE MAIN CENTER IS NOT VERY "STABLE", THAT MEANS THAT A RE-LOCATIONS
REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THIS BEGINNING OF LIFE. IT IS ESTIMATED FOR THE
MOMENT ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, UNDERGOING A
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
TROPICAL EASTERLY JET
(TEJ).

WINDS , ACCORDING TO 1425Z QUIKSCAT DATA, ARE STILL WEAK 15/20 KT NEAR
THE CENTER, REACHING VERY LOCALLY 30KT TO 35 KT IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE (GRADIENT EFFECT, AND WITHIN THE ACTIVE CURVED BAND, AS IN
SAINT-BRANDON ISLAND WHERE 37 KT 10 MIN AVERAGE WINDS, WITH GUSTS AT 50KT
, HAVE BEEN MEASURED
AT 1500 Z)

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK
WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BEFORE RECUIRVATURE
SOUTHWARDS, TOWARD A WIDE AND DEEP TROUGH AT THE END OF THIS FORECAST.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46080
Age: 30
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

#30 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Mar 21, 2008 2:33 pm

Image

Image

TC 25S: 35kts-996mb
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46080
Age: 30
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

#31 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Mar 21, 2008 3:07 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
RattleMan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1219
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 7:14 pm
Location: Phoenix, AZ

#32 Postby RattleMan » Fri Mar 21, 2008 7:45 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 220034

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/14/20072008
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 14 (LOLA)

2.A POSITION 2008/03/22 AT 0000 UTC :
16.0S / 59.3E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 100 SO: 150 NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1800
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/22 12 UTC: 16.6S/58.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2008/03/23 00 UTC: 16.8S/57.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2008/03/23 12 UTC: 16.8S/56.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2008/03/24 00 UTC: 16.7S/55.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2008/03/24 12 UTC: 16.5S/54.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2008/03/25 00 UTC: 16.5S/54.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5+
ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES REMAIN LOW AND THE GRADIENT IS WEAK IN THE
CENTER
OF THE CIRCULATION (SO WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE RATHER WEAK).
THE CENTER IS STILL ESTIMATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION, UNDERGOING A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ON
THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROPICAL EASTERLY JET (TEJ).

WINDS , ACCORDING TO 1717Z METOP/ASCAT DATA, ARE STILL WEAK NEAR THE
CENTER.
THE MSLP IS ESTIMATED AT 994 HPA, REFEERRING TO ST-BRANDON SLP 995,2
HPA
AT 2300UTC.
GALE FORCE WINDS, JUSTIFYING THE NAMING, EXIST ONLY IN THE SOUTH,
RATHER
FAR FROM THE CENTER (DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH
PRESSURES) AND UNDER DEEP CONVECTION (SQUALLS).

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL
RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK
WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WIDE AND DEEP
TROUGH SHOULD ATTRACKT THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD ADTER TAU72.=
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46080
Age: 30
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

#33 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Mar 21, 2008 8:35 pm

21/1900 UTC 15.2S 60.0E T2.5/2.5 25S -- South Indian Ocean
0 likes   

gigabyte89
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 45
Age: 28
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 9:10 am
Location: Mauritius

#34 Postby gigabyte89 » Fri Mar 21, 2008 9:51 pm

La perturbation signalée hier s'est lentement organisée, mais se situait toujours vendredi après-midi au stade de perturbation tropicale. Elle garde une structure cisaillée, avec un centre de basses couches qui restait ce soir complètement exposé au NE de la convection principale d'après les images micro-ondes disponibles.

Ce système devrait s'intensifier lentement au cours des jours à venir (malgré une mauvaise alimentation prévue en flux de mousson), avec un affaiblissement progressif du cisaillement de NE.

La trajectoire est prévue se faire en trois temps :

a) jusqu'à dimanche : déplacement lent vers le SSO

b) de dimanche à lundi : la dorsale de moyenne altitude est prévue se renforcer au S du système et provoquer un déplacement (toujours assez lent) vers l'O ou l'ONO

c) à partir de mardi soir/mercredi : changement radical d'environnement avec un profond talweg arrivant au SO puis au S du système, qui devrait alors faire route vers le S puis le SE.

La fiabilité des étapes a et b est moyenne à cause de la faible vitesse de déplacement attendu. celle de l'étape c (recourbement vers le S puis SE) est par contre assez bonne.

Pas d'influence directe à attendre sur notre île au cours des prochaines 48-72h. Toutefois des masses nuageuses périphériques risquent de nous concerner à partir de dimanche en amenant une dégradation pluvieuse, surtout sur la moitié E et l'intérieur de l'île.
0 likes   

gigabyte89
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 45
Age: 28
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 9:10 am
Location: Mauritius

Re: SW Indian Ocean: Tropical Disturbance 14R (94S) TCFA

#35 Postby gigabyte89 » Fri Mar 21, 2008 9:54 pm

parvez_savage wrote:Gigabyte..i am from mauritius too.. But i don't want it to intensify and come to Mauritius. What we actually need is rain, not more than that..


hmm it will surely affect MRU, a talweg will arive in the south causing the system to move South and SE...
0 likes   

HurricaneRobert
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 812
Joined: Fri May 18, 2007 9:31 pm

Re: SW Indian Ocean: Moderate Tropical Storm Lola (TC 25S)

#36 Postby HurricaneRobert » Fri Mar 21, 2008 10:21 pm

Her name was Lola.
She was a showgirl...
0 likes   

gigabyte89
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 45
Age: 28
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 9:10 am
Location: Mauritius

#37 Postby gigabyte89 » Sat Mar 22, 2008 1:55 am

WTXS31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211351Z MAR 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 59.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 59.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.3S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 16.8S 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.8S 56.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.5S 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 59.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM NORTHEAST OF
LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW
AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN ADVANCE OF A TRANSITORY MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH. A 211418Z CORIOLIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN INCREASE
IN CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON
PGTW DVORAK ANALYSIS AND 211422Z QUIKSCAT DATA. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES
TO PUSH EASTWARD POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL INCREASE AND FURTHER
INTENSIFY. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO SUSTAINABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL AID, WHICH ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
211351Z MAR 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 211400)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 220900Z AND 222100Z.
//

NNNN
0 likes   

gigabyte89
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 45
Age: 28
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 9:10 am
Location: Mauritius

Re: SW Indian Ocean: Moderate Tropical Storm Lola (TC 25S)

#38 Postby gigabyte89 » Sat Mar 22, 2008 4:07 am

Selon Loic Abadie:

prochain point : dimanche vers 16h

la perturbation n°14 est devenue une tempête tropicale modérée, et est passée à proximité N de l'île de St Brandon et se situait ce matin à 600 kms au NE de nos côtes. Elle s'est intensifiée, mais la convection a tendance à faiblir depuis ce matin...reste à savoir si cette tendance va se poursuivre.

Lola garde une structure cisaillée, avec un centre de basses couches en bordure NE de l'amas convectif principal.

Les conditions en altitude sont toujours prévue s'améliorer, par contre l'alimentation flux de mousson est faible -> une intensification lente reste pour le moment le scénario le plus probable, avec une faible fiabilité.

Côté trajectoire, une petite dorsale au S devrait permettre un déplacement lent vers l'OSO puis O / ONO jusqu'à lundi. Par contre à partir de mardi, un gros talweg associé à une dépression polaire devrait aspirer Lola vers le S, puis le SE mercredi et jeudi. La fiabilité est assez bonne avec des modèles globalement en accord

Le passage au plus près ou sur les Mascareignes est attendu pour le moment mercredi PM ou dans la nuit de mercredi à jeudi...la distance reste à préciser, l'incertitude à 4 jours dépasse 400 kms.

Pas d'influence directe à attendre sur notre île au cours des prochaines 48h. Toutefois des masses nuageuses périphériques risquent d'apporter une dégradation modérée du temps avec quelques bonnes averses sur la moitié E à partir de demain et lundi. A surveiller de près pour le milieu de semaine prochaine...

Prévision de trajectoire :

[All the graphics are live images ]

Légende : Jaune = perturbation tropicale , Vert = Dépression tropicale , bleu = Tempête modérée, Mauve = forte TT, Rouge = Cyclone,

blanc = cyclone intense. Noir = cyclone très intense.

Les pointillés noirs sont essentiels : Ils représentent l'incertitude (toujours très élevée au delà de 24h) de la prévision : la trajectoire a simplement de bonnes chances de se faire entre les limites des pointillés noirs et la trajectoire en couleur n'est donc là que pour donner une certaine tendance !

Un indice de confiance est aussi donné :

A -> confiance très bonne ; modèles en excellent accord, situation simple et claire.

B-> confiance assez bonne ; modèles globalement en accord sur la situation globale, mais avec quelques divergences

C-> confiance médiocre : modèles assez divergents, situation complexe

D-> confiance très faible : modèles très divergents, situation très complexe et contradictoire.


Image
0 likes   

User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:

Re: SW Indian Ocean: Moderate Tropical Storm Lola (TC 25S)

#39 Postby P.K. » Sat Mar 22, 2008 4:19 am

WTIO30 FMEE 220610

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/14/20072008
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 14 (LOLA)

2.A POSITION 2008/03/22 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3S / 58.7E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 050 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/22 18 UTC: 16.8S/57.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
24H: 2008/03/23 06 UTC: 17.0S/56.6E, MAX WIND=045KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2008/03/23 18 UTC: 17.0S/55.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/03/24 06 UTC: 16.9S/55.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/03/24 18 UTC: 16.8S/54.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/03/25 06 UTC: 16.8S/54.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5+
THE CENTER IS STILL ESTIMATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION, UNDERGOING A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WEAKENING
WINDSHEAR ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROPICAL EASTERLY JET (TEJ).

WINDS , ACCORDING TO 0242 QUIKSCAT DATA, ARE EXTENDING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE UNDER DEEP CONVECTION AND DUE TO THE GRADIENT
EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK
WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WIDE AND DEEP
TROUGH SHOULD ATTRACKT THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD ADTER TAU72.
0 likes   

Fadil
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 18
Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2008 4:51 am

Re: Re:

#40 Postby Fadil » Sat Mar 22, 2008 5:30 am

gigabyte89 wrote:
wyq614 wrote:Gigabyte, Thank you very much although the second website may be blocked so I can't open it. By the way, I wonder when JTWC will issue a TCFA on this system.


You're welcome :roll:
For the second link, u could this (Same website but different domain):

Code: Select all

firinga.com


I badly want this system to instensify and come to Mauritius :lol:



hehe its been long time we haven't had a big cyclone since Dina.
0 likes   


Return to “2008”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest