Possible NW Gulf Development Late This Week?

[srainhoutx]

Brownsville chimes in with location of developing surface low...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
124 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF DEL RIO WHILE AT THE SFC
LOW PRESSURE SEEMS TO BE STARTING TO WRAP UP NEAR LRD. SFC WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT ONSHORE AT THE SFC ALONG THE COAST WITH WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN GREATER THAN 80
PERCENT THROUGH TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST AND A
WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...FURTHER FOCUSING THE
MOISTURE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WITH ATMOSPHERE REMAINING VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED OUT FURTHER TO
SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED WET WEATHER. SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED
AS FREEZING LEVEL AND WETBULB ZERO ARE NEAR 16KFT AND NO COOLING
OR DRYING EXPECTED ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN
THE LOW 90S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPS WHERE TEMPORARY BREAKS LET SOME
SUNSHINE THROUGH. LONGER RANGE FORECAST STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
AS MODELS ARE DISSIMILAR WITH RESPECT TO MIDLEVEL TROUGH PLACEMENT
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE POP CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEK...MAINLY DUE TO LLVL MOISTURE REMAINING AND DAYTIME HEATING
ACTIVATING THE SEABREEZE. IF THE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE
AS IT IS NOW...HIGHER POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

12Z EURO develops weak system and moves in near Port Lavaca, Slow N/NE motion. Talk about flooding rains.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[lrak]

reported sir! WTH does that mean?

[HURAKAN]

Interesting

[gboudx]

When would the NHC put this area on their map?

[southerngale]

12Z EURO develops weak system and moves in near Port Lavaca, Slow N/NE motion. Talk about flooding rains.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

hmmm, seems to do a loop-de-loop and goes back out into the water. I remember another system that did something similar, but no need to bring that up right now.

Does this seem plausible?


Edit: And unless I'm crazy, this would suggest an even longer rain event as it shows it right along the coast (again) in 5 days... if this model run were to verify.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Could be! The EURO is pulling an Allison type deal. System moves Inland this weekend then slowly back south as flow aloft becomes North. To much rain i'm afraid!!

[cycloneye]

HPC Discussion

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
251 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2009

...VALID 18Z THU SEP 10 2009 - 00Z SAT SEP 12 2009...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

SCNTRL TX...

CONCERNS FOR HVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMTS ARE OVER SCNTRL TX
INVOF THE MID TO UPR LEVEL VORT MOVG ACRS THIS AREA. THERE ARE
SOME DIFFS WITH DETAILS OF THIS VORT/CLOSED LOW WITH THE GFS
FASTER TO PUSH IT EWD THAN THE NAM OR EC. THIS MAY BE DUE TO GRID
SCALE VORTS THE GFS DEVELOPS OVR THE WRN GULF. AT THE MOMENT...WE
FAVOR THE SLOWER EWD PUSH OF THE NAM AND ECMWF. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS VORT...ABOVE NORMAL PW VALUES
AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HILL COUNTRY...SHRT TERM PCPN AMTS OF
1-2" IN A HR OR TWO AND ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3-5" ARE POSSIBLE THIS
PERIOD.

ORAVEC

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html

[KFDM Meteorologist]

That's only the start! SEVERAL inches especially across SE Texas this weekend into early next week.

[gboudx]

Time for my daily whine: We need the rain! Send whatever you don't use up here. Once again the radar shows the bulk of the heavy rains at I-10 and south. We're getting clouds and humidity here in Austin.

So latest radar looks like you are getting in on the liquid joy from above. I hope it's not all virga.

[Wx_Warrior]

Not good!

[Portastorm]

Time for my daily whine: We need the rain! Send whatever you don't use up here. Once again the radar shows the bulk of the heavy rains at I-10 and south. We're getting clouds and humidity here in Austin.

So latest radar looks like you are getting in on the liquid joy from above. I hope it's not all virga.

No sir ... no virga here ... been pouring downtown for 30 minutes at least and it continues. Love it, baby ... love it!

Liquid joy indeed!!

[vbhoutex]

Could be! The EURO is pulling an Allison type deal. System moves Inland this weekend then slowly back south as flow aloft becomes North. To much rain i'm afraid!!

The ECMWF better be out to lunch!!!! As much as we need rain, we don't need that!!!! Unfortunately it is often the case when we have drought breaking rains in Texas that we do get excessive rains.

Watching the sat loops, the feature(s)(ULL and possible surface low) over the Laredo area and SCTRL TX is being very slow to move E and may even be moving a little SE. This will continue to pump tons of moisture Northward possibly/probably setting the stage for some major rains in the next few days over much of SCTRL and SE TX.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[KFDM Meteorologist]

It's not out to lunch often. Always remember ...ALOT of times you go from drought to Flood.

[vbhoutex]

It's not out to lunch often. Always remember ...ALOT of times you go from drought to Flood.

Unfortunately, I have seen that too many times here in TX over the last 38 years. What is also a little disconcerting to me is I also see a pattern(don't know what other word to use) in the clouds to our S and SW that is similar to what I saw 8 years ago. I am not saying what will or won't happen, but I do see similarities and the uptake of all of it last time was WAY TOO MUCH RAIN.

[srainhoutx]

Could be! The EURO is pulling an Allison type deal. System moves Inland this weekend then slowly back south as flow aloft becomes North. To much rain i'm afraid!!

The ECMWF better be out to lunch!!!! As much as we need rain, we don't need that!!!! Unfortunately it is often the case when we have drought breaking rains in Texas that we do get excessive rains.

Watching the sat loops, the feature(s)(ULL and possible surface low) over the Laredo area and SCTRL TX is being very slow to move E and may even be moving a little SE. This will continue to pump tons of moisture Northward possibly/probably setting the stage for some major rains in the next few days over much of SCTRL and SE TX.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Maybe better suited for the TX threads, but I'll go ahead and post some of my unofficial thoughts here...

The problem I'm seeing longer term is a constant setup where we have a an El Nino flow (Pineapple Express) and the EPAC systems start to become more involved concerning future heavy rainfall events for TX as wave after wave of moisture moves through. As we often see, it's feast or famine regarding rainfall events after a longer summer of a persistant Western ridge and an EC trough. Interesting days ahead.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

It's not out to lunch often. Always remember ...ALOT of times you go from drought to Flood.

Unfortunately, I have seen that too many times here in TX over the last 38 years. What is also a little disconcerting to me is I also see a pattern(don't know what other word to use) in the clouds to our S and SW that is similar to what I saw 8 years ago. I am not saying what will or won't happen, but I do see similarities and the uptake of all of it last time was WAY TOO MUCH RAIN.

Has that Tropical look to it.

[cycloneye]

KFDM,do you think NHC may start to mention it at the next Tropical Weather Outlook?

[Nederlander]

We can we expect the NHC to put out a yellow or orange on this? Or will they?

[gboudx]

From jeff.

Radar images out of KBRO suggest a surface circulation is/has developed ESE of KBRO. This could just be a convectively induced vort center…that is what it kind of looks like on radar…such things can spin into larger system given time.

Additionally, numerous strong convection has developed near and to the N/E of the broad circulation. Latest 12Z (600am) models nearly all show development of a closed surface low along the lower TX coast lifting it NNE to NE with landfalls from Port Lavaca to Lake Charles. GFS shows the system moving NNE toward Matagorda Bay with tremendous moisture advection and excessive/flooding rains across SE TX. CMC shows the system moving more toward SW LA with the heaviest rains aimed at that region.

It is still very possible that the system will remain just an open trough…but very close watch is needed for the next 24-36 hours and residents should be ready for rapidly changing conditions.