Possible tropical/subtropical development in central Atlanti

[BigA]

This seems a longshot, but the CMC, GFS and EURO all show some sort of cutoff low forming at the end of a digging trough in the central Atlantic in the 4-5 day period.

Canadian at 4 days

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=096hr

Canadian at 5 days

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=120hr

GFS at 5 days

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=120hr

My bet is no tropical development, but no one ever was harmed from keeping an eye out.

[wxman57]

Looks like a big upper low with a surface reflection in a high-shear environment. With what the NHC has named these days, who knows...

[jinftl]

From Dr. Jeff Master's blog today:

...a non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop in the middle-Atlantic on Monday, and may spend enough time over water to acquire some tropical characteristics and become Subtropical Storm Ida
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1365

[fci]

It's that time of year for systems way out there in the Central Atlantic to add to the storm total just to mess with people's predictions!!

[cycloneye]

That low is starting to take shape in the Northcentral Atlantic.The question is if it will have time to make the transition to subtropical before it moves north to northeastward.

[wxman57]

No, the question is whether the NHC is going to name another occluded low either out in the middle of the ocean or by the Azores. Such lows would never have been named in the past.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL GALE CENTER IS LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF BERMUDA. TRANSITION OF THIS LOW INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL GALE CENTER IS LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF BERMUDA. THIS LOW COULD SLOWLY ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[breeze]

[wyq614]

01/0545 UTC 30.7N 51.4W ST2.5 INVEST -- Atlantic

[cycloneye]

Floater 1 is over it.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL GALE CENTER IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST
OF BERMUDA. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...
REFER TO HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

Thread is locked as is invest 96L.Continue the discussions about this system at the 96L thread at Active Storms forum.