Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

UKMET is upgraded

Good to see this model being upgraded to see better competition between ECMWF,GFS and UKMET.


Excerpt:

5. SUMMARY

A major upgrade to the MOGM that is planned for
implementation in 2014 is set to produce the single
biggest impact of any model change on TC
predictions in 20 years. Based on results in trials,
track forecast errors are likely to be significantly
reduced. TCs will also be more intense, particularly at
longer forecast lead times. Overdeepening of TCs in
the forecast is now possible in certain circumstances,
but overall TCs are still expected to be too weak.
However, the weak bias in TC forecasts is
considerably reduced by the package of changes. The
advantage ECMWF has held over MOGM in recent
years for TC prediction is also considerably reduced,
particularly for intensity. Thus overall, the package of
changes is seen as a significant step forwards in
improving the accuracy of predictions of TCs from the
MOGM.

https://ams.confex.com/ams/31Hurr/webpr ... R11A.3.pdf

[ROCK]

Luis did they do a 2013 model verification report? I am curious how the Euro did vs the GFS....

[cycloneye]

Luis did they do a 2013 model verification report? I am curious how the Euro did vs the GFS....

I haven't seen any yet unless I missed it.

[cycloneye]

How about some model watching already so early? GFS has some entertainment on long range but I guess it will be gone in next runs.

[TheStormExpert]

Don't we usually start seeing some systems trying to make a run at being Invest worth about this time of year? Anyways that's a good sign IMO for those who live for the start of hurricane so they can start tracking the tropics.

Whatever the GFS is showing there looks to originate off the tail end of a front.

[supercane4867]

You know it's that time of the year when GFS starts showing ghost storms in the very long range

[asd123]

You know it's that time of the year when GFS starts showing ghost storms in the very long range

Have any of these ghost storms ever come into fruition? In these extended range forecasts, such as what you showed, when the 384th hour comes around, do the maps even faintly resemble the so called phantom model runs?

[RL3AO]

Almost never at 384 hrs. That far out the only useful things models can even somewhat predict accurately is widespread patterns...and even that is hit or miss.

[cycloneye]

GFS continues to push the timeframe back and back on the Western Caribbean thing,Go figure. If anything develops it will be on the EPAC.

[crownweather]

GFS continues to push the timeframe back and back on the Western Caribbean thing,Go figure. If anything develops it will be on the EPAC.

Funny you should mention this, I am casually mentioning this in my forecast discussion. I don't expect anything to occur, although the GFS ensemble guidance does show lowering pressures over the southwestern Caribbean during the first full week of May which I thought was kind of interesting. European model shows nothing through day 10 and the Canadian model guidance does spin up a east Pacific tropical cyclone around May 3rd and 4th.

[blp]

Seems like this happens every other year with the GFS and in this part of the Atlantic especially. We see it in April, May and October and November. I have seen quite a few phantoms from the GFS over the years in this area. I do like the idea though of early season development in this region because it is an El Nino year which normally has early season development as the ENSO has not reached its peak yet.

[cycloneye]

HWRF upgraded on June 3


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification ... 19hwrf.htm


GFDL upgraded on June 10


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification ... 20gfdl.htm

Good to see both models being upgraded. We will see the results as the season rolls ahead.

[blp]

That is great news. Both have had trouble in there accuracy and over estimate intensity.

[tolakram]

The 2014 HWRF model configuration has been extensively tested

with a combination of all the upgrades listed above for a 6-year

sample of cases (2008-2013) and the results showed that for

Atlantic basin track and intensity, the 2014 HWRF showed about

10 percent improvement compared to the current operational HWRF.

It's going to need more than a 10% improvement to be usable IMO.

[cycloneye]

That is great news. Both have had trouble in there accuracy and over estimate intensity.

Agreed. Hopefully we wont see many cat 3+ in the runs many times.

[asd123]

Check this out: Note off the East Coast of Florida: http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim. ... na&lang=en

Question to the more experienced weather buffs: What strength storm is this?

[HURRICANELONNY]

All I can say is LOL. It will be gone or totally different on future runs. I can't beleive the season about to start. Seems when the season suppose to be slow a tropical system develops early. I guess have to wait and see if when or where anything early develops.

[SouthFloridian92]

Check this out: Note off the East Coast of Florida: http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim. ... na&lang=en

Question to the more experienced weather buffs: What strength storm is this?

That'd be a tropical storm.

[wxman57]

00Z Canadian develops a low in the southern/eastern Bahamas at the trailing end of a cold front on May 8th. It moves the low northward and strengthens it into a TS near the northern Bahamas a couple of days later. Looks like a bogus storm, but something to watch.

[cycloneye]

Yeah,over my head literally. This is a cold core low as it is with an upper trough and does not stay for enough time to make the transition to a subtropical or tropical entity.But if this pans out plenty of rain will pour to PR and adjacent islands next weekend.