2015 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

:uarrow: Doubt it would bring those effects. Getting TOO bullish euro, that you are changing actual facts. Mild EL NINO events do not bring that much effects globally and in cyclone activity. Like 2009, EPAC had only 8 hurricanes... WPAC only had 22 storms and it was a globally low quality year. Quite too excited.

Why only 2009?

2009 had 7 major typhoons with 5 category 5
2002 had 27 tropical storms with 12 major typhoons and 3 cat 5...

No season is the same...

You say Mild EL NINO does not bring global effects and in global cyclone activity? Explain?

We would like to know your amateur opinion...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

:uarrow: Doubt it would bring those effects. Getting TOO bullish euro, that you are changing actual facts. Mild EL NINO events do not bring that much effects globally and in cyclone activity. Like 2009, EPAC had only 8 hurricanes... WPAC only had 22 storms and it was a globally low quality year. Quite too excited.

Why only 2009?

2009 had 7 major typhoons with 5 category 5
2002 had 27 tropical storms with 12 major typhoons and 3 cat 5...

No season is the same...

You say Mild EL NINO does not bring global effects and in global cyclone activity? Explain?

We would like to know your amateur opinion...

First of all, it is too weak to produce much effects, and you tend to exaggerate. The El Nino had no effects and EVEN the NOAA said and reiterated as shown in several news articles and sources. So if you argue with me, then you're basically arguing with them.

Here's proof. http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-el-nino-rain-20150304-story.html

IDC if all seasons are the same, my point was that just because there's a Niño doesn't mean it'd be extraordinarily active.

[euro6208]

Even several news articles and sources can overexaggerate...

Here is the officlal CPC discussion...

During January through February 2015 the SST just met the thresholds for weak Niño conditions. Lately some of the atmospheric variables began indicating an El Niño pattern a little more than they had been before January. The consensus of ENSO prediction models indicate warm neutral to borderline El Niño conditions during the February-April season in progress, continuing into northern spring 2015, with some suggestion of strengthening El Niño toward mid-2015.

Arguing with them?

This is forecast to strengthen toward the 2nd half of 2015...Not arguing but agreeing...

if all seasons are the same, my point was that just because there's a Niño doesn't mean it'd be extraordinarily active.

1997 produced 10 category 5's in the WPAC alone...

How about the global activity you mentioned?

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: Doubt it would bring those effects. Getting TOO bullish euro, that you are changing actual facts. Mild EL NINO events do not bring that much effects globally and in cyclone activity. Like 2009, EPAC had only 8 hurricanes... WPAC only had 22 storms and it was a globally low quality year. Quite too excited.

2009 PHS was active given it was during the inactive era.

And 2009 PTS was quite destructive.

And who is to say this ENSO event won't be mild? Decebt shot IMO it is moderate.

[euro6208]

Recon coming back since 1987?

The WPAC can support reconnaisse with bases in Japan and definitely Guam at Anderson AFB. Many older Global Hawk drones are already stationed here...

Can't understand why there is no support for recon over here for the world's most active basin with the most population of civilian and U.S military personel affected by the world's most powerful tropical cyclones...

It will definitely be a huge help in meteorology...

Drone to be deployed to Andersen in 2017

http://www.guampdn.com/article/20150306/NEWS01/303060005/Drone-deployed-Andersen-2017

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Euro, you're saying Dr. Jeff Masters and NOAA are wrong?

http://www.wunderground.com/news/el-nino-2015-noaa

[Yellow Evan]

Euro, you're saying Dr. Jeff Masters and NOAA are wrong?

http://www.wunderground.com/news/el-nino-2015-noaa

He's saying there right.

The forecast issued by the Climate Prediction Center branch of NOAA says that there is a 50 to 60 percent chance that El Nino conditions may persist into summer 2015.

Sure, this is weak right now, and the article means that little short-term effects are expected? Could it change in the long-run sure.

[euro6208]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=76&t=117131

Looks like we might have our 3rd typhoon with Bavi this month...Incredible...

[euro6208]

Another March storm?

Models hinting that we might have Maysak later this month with EURO, GFS, and NAVGEM on a large system...

[euro6208]

00Z Maysak with development starting in 252 hours

[euro6208]

Well the models except CMC no longer develops Maysak

[euro6208]

Models again latching onto Maysak last week of March, early April in almost the same location where Bavi developed...Still very very far out so let's see what happens...

[euro6208]

Future Maysak...

Interestingly, GFS doesn't show anything...

[euro6208]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/ppegion/hurricanes/tc_comp_mjo_with_enso.html

Interesting link that shows the level of activity during MJO phrases with ENSO. I read that Bavi is just the 2nd ever storm to develop in phrase 6 in the northern hemisphere...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=76&t=117131

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

While all models try to develop a TC near Guam, GFS is much further east near the dateline...

[euro6208]

Chip Guard on El nino...

Yes, the El Niño. The El Niño is Mother Nature’s way of distributing heat in the ocean. When an El Niño sets in, we get all this warm water and it starts to propagate and is pushed farther and farther to the East. We then get big, strong West winds. Some westerly winds in the equator sometimes produce twin storms — that was the case with Pam and Bavi. Since storms form farther to the east, during El Niño period, the Mariana Islands have about a 300-percent increase in their chances of getting hit.

[euro6208]

Most models now latching onto a disturbance that eventually develops near the dateline end of March, early April that takes it across Micronesia.

CMC is the strongest bringing this to a typhoon south of Guam.

NAVGEM barely a TS and maybe recurves.

EURO is also weak and takes it to the Philippine Sea.

GFS has a slowly developing system that's stationary near 178E.

Still long range...

[euro6208]

Much stronger on this run and closer in development at 300 hours...

[euro6208]

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/noac-yokosuka/RSS/satLooper.php?location=fulldisk&type=ir&action

Could this be the one the models are developing from the Central Pacific that turns to Maysak? It does look pretty healthy and in time for the next kelvin wave passing through that would likely aid in it's development down the road.

Right now shear is low but increases near the dateline into the WPAC so that might delay it's development but it does have a robust vorticity signature already.

SST's down there is 28-29C and warmer along the track...