About learning models...

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ALhurricane
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#21 Postby ALhurricane » Sun Jun 03, 2007 8:45 pm

mempho wrote:
ALhurricane wrote:Wow, a thread I started 3 1/2 years ago while still in college has come back to life! What Derecho and Mike added since then are all good points. There are truly only a good few models out there that the NWS/NHC even bother looking at. On top of that, it is always dangerous to follow on deterministic model output, especially if it offers a radical solution. Ensemble models and model consesus is becoming more widely used and has great benefits.

As far as the GFS ensemble spread, it is important to see what the individual ensemble members are saying. If the individual member vary greatly, then the overall mean has to be looked upon with more caution.

The bottom line is that the best way to understand and use these models is to get first become educated in the subject of numerical weather prediction.


Didn't you live in Memphis last year?


Yes I did. I received a promotion to the NWS in Raleigh, so here I am! Much closer to the coast now!

To keep this on topic, I will comment a little on the model performance in regards to Barry. The ECMWF was superb during this event...forecasting a low pressure system in the Gulf days before the other models latched on. After that, the ECMWF was consistent in its track, while the NAM and GFS were erratic to say the least. The key thing to keep in mind is to watch model trends. One model run does not a forecast make. Comparing model to model, however, the ECMWF is simply taking our American models behind the woodshed as far as verification goes.
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#22 Postby A1A » Tue Jun 05, 2007 9:19 am

What is the link for the ECMWF model runs? What does ECMWF stand for?
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#23 Postby wjs3 » Tue Jun 05, 2007 11:33 am

A1A wrote:What is the link for the ECMWF model runs? What does ECMWF stand for?


http://www.ecmwf.int/

Is the home page. You'll see it referred to as the "Euro" or "European" sometimes. Unlike the models run by NCEP and others, there are only a limited number of variables available to those of us who do not subscribe to the model.

ECMWF stands for the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

WJS3
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#24 Postby A1A » Wed Jun 06, 2007 11:36 am

Just to know if I have gotten all I can get, I've gone to the North America info and then clicked on the Geopotential 500 hPa? Is that the best I can get for tracking significant weather features?
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#25 Postby x-y-no » Wed Jun 06, 2007 1:12 pm

College of Dupage offers the ECMWF, unfortunately only a North America view. So does the PSU E-Wall (look on the left under "Extras").
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#26 Postby wjs3 » Wed Jun 06, 2007 9:48 pm

...there you go...there 200 MB all the way down to the surface. Thanks x-y-no...learn something new every day!

WJS3
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#27 Postby Wthrman13 » Fri Jun 15, 2007 4:50 pm

MWatkins wrote:Excellent thread, Jason...



2. Be Suspicious of Big Changes in the 6Z or 18Z Guidance Remember that the global models almost never get new data for the 6Z and 18Z runs, which means these models are rerun using 12 hour old data. This is also why we almost never see huge changes to the 11AM and 11PM EDT forecast tracks from the NHC if the models start to shift…they almost always wait until new data gets in at the 0Z and 12Z runs. Don’t get too excited about a shift until it’s confirmed by the full runs of the models.



Hi Mike,

I'm not sure where this widespread misconception came from, but it's just not true that 06Z/18Z runs do not include any new data. I suspect that the fact that, in general, RAOB's are not launched except for special circumstances (such as in an area where there is a severe weather threat) other than the synoptic times of 12Z and 00Z has led people to believe that somehow the 18Z and 06Z runs contain no data in their initializations. In fact, there are many sources of data that go into the 6Z and 18Z runs, such as the regular ASOS surface obs, buoy data, aircraft obs, satellite soundings/cloud drift winds, other derived satellite data, as well as plenty of others. It's probably true however, that the lack of global coverage of RAOB's does degrade the forecasts in general versus those starting from 12Z and 00Z, but I'm not aware of any statistics off the top of my head that would confirm this. If I find any I will post them.

Dan
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Re: About learning models...

#28 Postby windstorm99 » Tue Jul 03, 2007 10:53 pm

Here's a great paper on tropical cyclone models...

Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) have a variety of prediction models available to provide guidance for their forecasts of tropical cyclone tracks and intensity. The intent of this paper is to provide a brief overview of each of the models. Forecasters may find this information helpful when considering NHC discussions which mention the performance of individual models. A primary reference is provided after the summary of each model for readers who desire more information.

Complete paper here
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Re: About learning models...

#29 Postby DrewFL » Tue Jul 17, 2007 2:22 am

OK....that's a copy and paste there Adrian. Do you understand what you actually posted?
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Re: About learning models...

#30 Postby artist » Mon Sep 24, 2007 7:23 pm

thanks everyone for all the information here. And ALhurricane - congrats on the promotion! Wish you were around here more.
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3ABirdMan
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Re: About learning models...

#31 Postby 3ABirdMan » Wed Aug 20, 2008 12:48 pm

TTT


Man, if everyone over in the MODELS threads on the ACTIVE boards would just read this thread, not to mention all of the info it references, there would be a lot less confusion, I believe!

THANKS for the links, and the opportunity to educate myself!
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keithy joe
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#32 Postby keithy joe » Tue Mar 16, 2010 12:00 pm

Thank you for an excellent educational overview on the model biases and ensembles. I have forecast the weather for the UK for a number of years and I have always been especially interested in severe weather. During 2008 I did become involved in some of the discussion on here and I am looking forward to joining in again during a more active 2010 season.
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~FlipFlopGirl~
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Re: About learning models...

#33 Postby ~FlipFlopGirl~ » Sat Jun 23, 2012 11:34 am

That orginal link you posted no longer works- any others you recommend- for the non-weather major? :wink:
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