SPAC: VANIA (03F/05P) - Tropical Cyclone

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Grifforzer
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#41 Postby Grifforzer » Tue Jan 11, 2011 3:46 pm

WTPS11 NFFN 111800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 11/2009 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD03F CENTRE 990HPA WAS ANALYZED NEAR 19.1S
169.4E AT 111800 UTC. DEPRESSION SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
MTSAT IR/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREE CELSIUS.

LLCC OBSCURED BY CIRRUS OUTFLOW. DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO NORTH
OF LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE.
DEPRESSION LIES ALONG A MONSOONAL TROUGH AND UNDER A 250HPA DIFFLUENT
REGION. SYSTEM LIES UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR. TD03F CURRENTLY
STEERED BY NORTHERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.4 WRAP LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=2.5, MET=3.0, PT=2.5 AND FT BASED ON DT, THUS T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP
THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR TD03F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD03F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
120200 UTC.
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#42 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jan 11, 2011 3:55 pm

Image

WTPS31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 19.0S 168.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 168.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 19.2S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.6S 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 20.2S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 20.9S 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 22.9S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 24.9S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 27.8S 163.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 168.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05P (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM NE OF
NOUMEA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS
CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE SUPPORTED BY
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, PHFO, NFFN, AND ABRF.
AN 111003Z ASCAT PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC SHOWS 30-KT UNFLAGGED
WIND BARBS ALONG THE SOUTHERN RIM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A POINT SOURCE THAT IS ENHANCING
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THIS IS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH
TRACKING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AND INTENSIFYING IT TO A MINIMUM 60-KT
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS 05P IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN BY TAU 96 AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE AND SSTS
BEGIN TO DECREASE. THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT
OF THE CONSENSUS OF DYNAMIC AIDS WHICH ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, WHICH IS BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO THE RIGHT OF
THE TRACK ENVELOPE AFTER TAU 36. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 110151Z JAN 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPS21 PGTW 110200) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z.//
NNNN
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#43 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jan 11, 2011 5:22 pm

It better not turn west into the area that has been hit by Katrina-like flooding! Australia cannot afford any tropical activity right now...
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#44 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jan 11, 2011 5:42 pm

11/2032 UTC 19.0S 169.6E T3.0/3.0 05P -- Southwest Pacific

45 knots
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Re: SPO: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F (05P)

#45 Postby P.K. » Tue Jan 11, 2011 6:31 pm

NWPS01 NFFN 112100
TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMING BULLETIN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 11/2323
UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 03F NEAR 19.1S 169.3E AT 112100 UTC HAS BEEN NAMED
"VANIA".
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Re: SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE VANIA 03F (05P)

#46 Postby Grifforzer » Tue Jan 11, 2011 8:33 pm

http://www.meteo.gov.vu/tcmod/tcmfiles/IDV60001.gif

TC Vania's track forecast from Vanuatu Meteorological Services.
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#47 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jan 11, 2011 9:56 pm

GALE WARNING 016 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 12/0100 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VANIA CENTRE 988HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2
SOUTH 169.3 EAST AT 120000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 19.2S 169.3E AT 120000 UTC.
CYCLONE SLOW MOVING BUT EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 19.5S 168.5E AT 121200 UTC
AND NEAR 20.1S 167.8E AT 130000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICALS MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO
SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 015.
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Re:

#48 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Jan 12, 2011 2:37 am

CrazyC83 wrote:It better not turn west into the area that has been hit by Katrina-like flooding! Australia cannot afford any tropical activity right now...



You know that was my first thought, it seems unlikely at this point but if it gets wrapped up in the monsoonal trough and heads west that defiantly would be a disaster scenario.
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Re:

#49 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Jan 12, 2011 4:01 am

My thoughts on Vania today, I know I probably pronounced it wrong on here...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1-Dny9tq68[/youtube]
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#50 Postby KWT » Wed Jan 12, 2011 6:33 am

Looks like we may have a landfalling system here above 65kts looking at the current forecasts...

Going to be very wet for New Caledonia during the next few days as this is a fairly slow moving system.

Needs to be watched, a bombing system into landfall is a threat.
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Re: SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE VANIA 03F (05P)

#51 Postby GCANE » Wed Jan 12, 2011 7:26 am

Looks like this will continue to strengthen; I don't see anything holding this back till landfall.

Latest WindSAT shows a high rain-rate core.

Anti-cyclone is displaced to the NW with about 7 knots of shear.

It looks like it will track parallel to the anti-cyclone in the short-terem allowing the PV column to maintain its structure.

OHC looks good for the 48 hrs till landfall.

2C core with no boundary-layer inversion.

RMW at about 200km with a sharp gradient into the core and outflow away from the core at UL's.

Good outflow channels both equatorward and poleward.







Image


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Image


Image


Image


Image
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Re: SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE VANIA 03F (05P)

#52 Postby GCANE » Wed Jan 12, 2011 7:30 am

Moisture in-feed also looks great as well - no dry slots around.

Image
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#53 Postby KWT » Wed Jan 12, 2011 8:10 am

Yeah the system is wrapping ok at the moment though the main convection is on the S/E side at the moment.

How far west it manages to get is going to be key for whether it makes landfall or not.
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Re: SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE VANIA 03F (05P)

#54 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Jan 12, 2011 8:21 am

So much going on out there, looks like BOM has it going SW as well here.

Image
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Re: SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE VANIA 03F (05P)

#55 Postby GCANE » Wed Jan 12, 2011 8:28 am

Here is the latest 06Z Consensus

Possible ET for NZ.



Image


Image
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#56 Postby KWT » Wed Jan 12, 2011 8:32 am

Gosh thats quite close Rob, wouldn't like to call conditions in SE New Caledonia, could be anything from just light rain and gusty weather to 60-75kts sustained cyclone!
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Re: SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE VANIA 03F (05P)

#57 Postby Macrocane » Wed Jan 12, 2011 8:46 am

It is organizing fairly well, it still has some work to do as you mentioned maybe because of its size.
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#58 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jan 12, 2011 9:15 am

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 12/0813 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VANIA 03F CENTRE 987HPA CAT 1 WAS ANALYSED NEAR
19.3S 169.2E AT 120600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HRES MTSAT VIS/EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE
CURRENTLY SLOW MOVING BUT EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AT
05 KNOTS. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 240 MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO
SOUTHWEST.

LLCC SLIGHTLY OBSCURED BY CIRRUS OUTFLOW. CDO PULSATING UNDER DIURNAL
INFLUENCE BUT PERSISTING ABOUT LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH AND
DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. CYCLONE LIES UNDER A 250HPA DIFFLUENT REGION
WITH LOW SHEAR. CIMSS INDICATES DECREASING SHEAR ALONG FORECAST
TRACK. SST AROUND 29C. SYSTEM CURRENTLY STEERED BY A WEAK NORTHERLY
DEEP LAYER MEAN REGIME. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON 0.6 LOG 10 SPIRAL
YIELDING DT=3.0. MET=3.0, PT=3.0. FT BASED ON DT, THUS
T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS EVENTUALLY MOVE THE CYCLONE
SOUTHWEST WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS:
AT 12HRS VALID 121800Z 19.7S 168.5E MOV SW 05KT WITH 40KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE.
AT 24HRS VALID 130600Z 20.4S 167.8E MOV SW 05KT WITH 40KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36HRS VALID 131800Z 21.1S 167.2E MOV SW 05KT WITH 45KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID 140600Z 21.9S 167.0E MOV S 05KT WITH 50KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD03F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
121400 UTC.
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#59 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jan 12, 2011 9:18 am

Image

Latest
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#60 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jan 12, 2011 9:19 am

Image

broad eye forming
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