BoB: INVEST 95B

[senorpepr]

Not seeing anything on JTWC or IMD yet. NRL initializes at 175 mi (280 km) E of Mannarguddi, India: 15 kt, 1010 hPa.

[ugaap]

NRL now has 95B at 25kts-1004mb @10.0N & 863E

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.8N 86.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. RECENT
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION FLARING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A WEAK AND ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 282027Z AMSU-B PASS.
THIS DISTURBANCE LIES SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BECAUSE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE AND THE
LLCC JUST BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.

[RobWESTPACWX]

GFS is really spinning up on this system as well. I think it does have the potential to develop in to something in the coming weekend and head NE towards Myanmar , may have the first BOB cyclone for the year.

I put out a video today and talked about it, link below if any one wants to check it out. Going to be an interesting one.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kvznV1CBQuU

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[RobWESTPACWX]

That pretty much confirms what I was saying about GFS there, Hurakan , can you post the link for that? One of the many graphics that I would love to get the links to from you!

[HURAKAN]

That pretty much confirms what I was saying about GFS there, Hurakan , can you post the link for that? One of the many graphics that I would love to get the links to from you!

Link: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/index.html

[Extratropical94]

JTWC 1800Z:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.8N
86.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 86.5E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATINON
CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN WEAKLY DEFINED AND SLOW TO DEVELOP, ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SHOWED A
CLEAR CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE AROUND THE
CENTER. A 291358Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC, AND THE 37GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS A HINT OF CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. SCATTERED
CONVECTION EXISTS ON ALL SIDES OF THE LLCC. THE 291200Z UPPER LEVEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS CONFIRMS THAT THE LLCC IS DRIFTING DIRECTLY
UNDER THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE
DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE GRADIENT LEVEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEVELOPED WESTERLY WIND FIELD OVER
THE SOUTHERN BAY OF BENGAL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ESTIMATED
AT 29 TO 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

[Extratropical94]

The Canadian CMC model is far more bullish on 95B, spins it up to a 985-987 mbar storm.
JTWC described the quite favorable conditions in their TWO.

Looks like we're nearing May...

[HURAKAN]

The Canadian being bullish? wow, that almost never happens!!! lol

[Extratropical94]

From JTWC's 1800Z summary:

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 86.5E,
HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

It also seems to have disappeared from all the model pages.

[RobWESTPACWX]

And Good Riddance, with everything else going on in the world a cyclone moving over Myanmar would be the worst. These are the cases where I am happy the forecast was busted, just fizzle out and stay out to sea!