ATL: DOLLY - REMNANTS - Discussion

[Ntxw]

Would anyone like to guess when was the last time that there was not even a depression in the Gulf prior to September 1st? I'll give you a hint - I was just starting 1st grade.

1961

I double that, 1961 year of Carla

[redneckweather]

Would anyone like to guess when was the last time that there was not even a depression in the Gulf prior to September 1st? I'll give you a hint - I was just starting 1st grade.

1961

I double that, 1961 year of Carla

Yea, but I don't think there was a depression in the Gulf prior to Carla.

[Andrew92]

Would anyone like to guess when was the last time that there was not even a depression in the Gulf prior to September 1st? I'll give you a hint - I was just starting 1st grade.

1963. Only Gulf storm that year was Cindy which didn't form until September.

-Andrew92

[Portastorm]

Would anyone like to guess when was the last time that there was not even a depression in the Gulf prior to September 1st? I'll give you a hint - I was just starting 1st grade.

That was late 19th century, right?!

[YoshiMike]

Hard to tell but in the last few images it appears that a circulation might be taking shape in the general vicinity of 17.5n 83.5W.

http://tropicwatch.info/avn_lalo-animated.gif

Yeahm, I can see it! (Hi, I am new!) I'm just hoping it wont affect Hattiesburg. Or if it isn't too it's okay if it does LOL

[Rgv20]

99L looks descent on the latest visible satellite..


Saved Loop:

[tropicwatch]

Might be getting that look

[Nimbus]

The NE pole lost some convection going over Jamaica but should see some rebuilding west of Jamaica around sunset.

[tropicwatch]

I didn't notice that circulation up by Jamaica earlier but 99L at 12z was:

12z Best Track.

99L INVEST 140830 1200 16.6N 84.6W ATL 25 1009

A lot further to the south west of Jamaica.

[Alyono]

development chances rapidly decreasing. May not have favorable conditions until this is close to mainland Mexico based upon the latest guidance.

[tropicwatch]

Sliding over parts of Mexico won't help it any either.

[chaser1]

Seems to me to be showing some evidence of maybe a lazy broad cyclonic twist to it. As Alonyo mentioned above, conditions may not be all that favorable still and I just don't think 99L is going to wind up nearly quick enough to pose much issue to points in the Caribbean. On the other hand, flooding rains are always a threat and could simply occur from any significant increase in convection. I just don't see any quick development though

[underthwx]

Can anyone post what Mr. Jeff has to offer on 99l? Not sure what website he is on...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive during
the next couple of days, but land interaction will likely limit
significant development while the disturbance moves across the
Yucatan peninsula Sunday and Sunday night. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some gradual development once the
system moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[underthwx]

Im thinkin 99l will remain basically disorganized due to its interaction with land and at the most.be a depression upon its final destination...only my opinion

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

99L INVEST 140830 1800 17.1N 85.3W ATL 25 1009

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. Land interaction will likely limit significant development
while the disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula Sunday and
Sunday night. However, environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for some gradual development once the system moves into
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I'd expect development chances to continue to go up over coming days. Land interaction will slow if not inhibit development tomorrow as the disturbance crosses land. However, after emerging into the Bay of Campeche Monday into Tuesday, wind shear should be light to moderate, sea surface temperatures should be plenty warm, and mid-level moisture should be more than ample to support development. It's also important to keep the curvature of Mexico in mind; when wind flows towards the tall mountains in this region, it's effectively directed in a counter-clockwise fashion, helping to tighten up preexisting circulations, and helping to create new ones.

I have a weak tropical storm moving in near Tampico.

[wxman57]

Would anyone like to guess when was the last time that there was not even a depression in the Gulf prior to September 1st? I'll give you a hint - I was just starting 1st grade.

1963. Only Gulf storm that year was Cindy which didn't form until September.

-Andrew92

Correct! 52 seasons ago. So far this season, we've had only 2 disturbances in the Gulf. That's a record low, too.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

99L INVEST 140831 0000 17.7N 86.4W ATL 25 1009