ATL: Ex NINE

[ozonepete]

So how is a front even going to be able to make it all the way into the NW Caribbean? With the NAO/AO already Neutral and heading Positive. Plus the PNA heading Negative. Very unfavorable for troughiness in the Eastern U.S., ridging seems more likely.

There is currently a troughiness pattern across the US east Coast lasting over the next 4-6 days or so, after that is when it looks like the pattern will change back to ridging across the eastern US as the NAO & AO does indeed goes to positive and the PNA to negative.

NDG has it right. The bottom line or rather the other BIG caution is you can't over-rely on the NAO and AO. They are way over-rated for telling you how strong ridging or troughing will be in the East or the Atlantic. They are just one tool to use. I always look to see what the experts at NCEP/WPC say when I want to know how the surface will play out, regardless of how sure I am of the upper level forecast. I'm sure you use this, but just in case you don't, I look at this every single day, always:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

[NDG]

Here is another IR sat loop zoomed into the area of 93L

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=20

[gatorcane]

I wished we had Recon misson currently in the system. The convective burst taking place this evening I think should bump this to TD or possibly TS Hanna very shortly.

Agreed I wonder if the pressure has dropped below 1000MB, we may be in the high 990s right now, like around 998MB or 999MB?

[blazess556]

93L is still fighting 20-25 knots of westerly shear. Convection that is firing this evening is being pushed east of the center. Shear should finally drop below 15 knots in ~24 hours.

[ozonepete]

I wished we had Recon misson currently in the system. The convective burst taking place this evening I think should bump this to TD or possibly TS Hanna very shortly.

Agreed I wonder if the pressure has dropped below 1000MB, we may be in the high 990s right now, like around 998MB or 999MB?

Yeah, me too. Pretty likely it has. You can see on the satellite loop that the well-defined LLC got sucked northeastwaard in under the convective blow-up. So it could be consolidating very quickly. But of course this is one of the most famous areas for fast TC development in all of the Atlantic basin.

[NDG]

[NDG]

This is now TD 9

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
0300 UTC WED OCT 22 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
CELESTUN TO FRONTERA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CELESTUN TO FRONTERA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 92.9W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 92.9W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 93.2W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.4N 92.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.4N 91.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 19.4N 90.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.4N 88.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.0N 86.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 84.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 18.5N 83.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 92.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[gatorcane]

Can't wait to read the discussion as it is a complex situation that is unfolding the next several days.

[Blown Away]

NHC hugging TVCN model consensus has consistently moved 93L across the Yucatan into the NW Caribbean... It seems the chances 93L will get left behind after the front moves out are increasing and I guess the question is if the conditions will allow 93L to develop... IMO if 93L maintains a tight LLC in the NW Caribbean I bet there will be enough energy to get a decent TS...

[cycloneye]

[HurriGuy]

WOW ….look how wide that cone is. lol

[floridasun78]

it td 9 wow

[gatorcane]

[blp]

[]http://oi60.tinypic.com/hrzu4y.jpg[/img]

No dissipation on that graphic.

[RL3AO]

WOW ….look how wide that cone is. lol

Cone is the same for every storm this year. Might be the map projection making it look wider than usual.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Looks like this is going to be Hannah indeed.

Long time Ivan where have you been, miss your post on here.

[gatorcane]

Initial NHC discussion is going with the ECMWF (despite the GFS and some previous GEM and NAVGEM runs keeping this it's own entity and intensifying it in the NW Caribbean). Not much discussion of the other models though at all. We will wait for the 00Z guidance.

[HurriGuy]

NHC does mention the GFS at very end of discussion of not merging with trough.

[cycloneye]

They don't look bullish in NW Caribbean.

If the small cyclone survives the passage across the Yucatan
Peninsula, drier air and interaction with a frontal system is likely
to prevent strengthening. The NHC forecasts calls for degeneration
to a remnant low in 4 or 5 days, but this could occur much sooner.

[floridasun78]

drier air and interaction with a frontal system is likely
to prevent strengthening. The NHC forecasts calls for degeneration
to a remnant low in 4 or 5 days, but this could occur much sooner.
so done in nw carribbean