SWPC: G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storms approaching

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SWPC: G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storms approaching

#1 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Sep 11, 2014 6:35 am

2014-09-11 05:01 UTC A Pair of CMEs

G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storms remain in the forecast for September 12th as a result of the coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R1 (Minor) solar flare observed on the 9th. The latest WSA-Enlil model run has the CME associated with yesterday's R3 (Strong) solar flare arriving mid to late day on that same day. A G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm Watch has been issued for September 13th due to the combined influence of these two events with G1 (Minor) storming anticipated to continue into September 14th. In addition, the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm that is in progress as a result of the eruption yesterday is expected to persist for the next few days. Keep in mind that the forecast periods listed are in Universal Time so aurora watchers in the northern U.S. should be looking for possible activity both Thursday and Friday nights. Stay tuned for updates.


http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
Last edited by tolakram on Fri Sep 12, 2014 5:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: changed subject, strong now predicted
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Re: SWPC: G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storms approaching

#2 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 11, 2014 11:06 pm

Staying up late just in case. I remember around 1990 seeing the Aurora in Ohio under city lights, a very strong storm.

edit: 1989 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm

Aurora News:
http://www.softservenews.com/Aurora.htm

Time sensitive from now.

in 12 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 3.33 -- Active.
in 20 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 3.33 -- Active.
in 36 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 5.33 -- at STORM LEVEL!
in 46 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 5 -- Very Active.

I need 7+ to have a chance to see anything.
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#3 Postby WeatherGuesser » Fri Sep 12, 2014 4:48 am

I remember something from the early 2000s that was visible from around 37°N. Fire departments were getting calls about a 'red glow' thinking there was a house or barn fire in the area. Nothing was ever found and they found out later it was an atmospheric event. But I don't remember the details.

-----------

When the current event was originally reported, there was concern for the power grid and some of the communications satellites. They toned that down after more evaluation of the threat and where the energy was going.
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Re: SWPC: G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storms approaching

#4 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 12, 2014 4:56 pm

The storm is starting and naturally we're socked in a cloud deck from Tenn to Canada!

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wingkp/index.html

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SWN/index.html

The Space Environment Center's Neural Net Program estimates that . . .

in 2 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 5.33 -- at STORM LEVEL!
in 20 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 5.33 -- at STORM LEVEL!
in 28 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 5.67 -- at STORM LEVEL!
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Re: SWPC: G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storms approaching

#5 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 12, 2014 5:06 pm

4 hour prediction just jumped to a KP of 8, which is the bottom end of a severe storm. Those with clear skies to the north may have a really good chance of seeing the Aurora Borealis tonight!
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Re: SWPC: G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storms approaching

#6 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 12, 2014 5:24 pm

2014-09-12 18:05 UTC G2 (Moderate) Storming Underway

The second of the expected coronal mass ejections (CMEs) has arrived, and arrived in good agreement with the predicted arrival times. As expected, an initial looks shows this CME is stronger than the first. G2 (Moderate) storming is underway now and the forecast for G3 (Strong) storming on the 13thstill looks reasonable. The solar radiation storm that is in progress as a result of the eruption on September 10th peaked briefly, as it often does with the passage of the shock, but is currently below the S2 threshold and in decline.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
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#7 Postby WeatherGuesser » Fri Sep 12, 2014 5:33 pm

I ain't gonna be seein' nuthin' but gray. Then dark. Just plain dark. No stars. No moon. No lights.
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