Madagascar: OVERLAND DEPRESSION ex. IVAN (TC 18S)

[HurricaneBill]

Mozambique is worried it might be next.

[G.B.]

[Meso]

If it had to take the NOGAPS route it would end up hitting us here in South Africa maybe.

EURO showing it skirt by the NE coast.If it does happen Durban could get some good surf

[HURAKAN]

[Sanibel]

Over land too long. Will move toward cooler waters.

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

Looks very non-tropical:

[Squarethecircle]

Not fast enough to get away from the harmful effects of what we weather people call "land". I'd say Ivan is probably completely dead now.

[Coredesat]

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION, PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED AS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 18S (IVAN), HAS PERSISTED NEAR 23.1S 42.8E, APPROXIMATELY 340
NM SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO MADAGASCAR. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND
SCATTEROMETRY OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A CONCENTRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY (WITHIN ONE DEGREE) OF THE LLCC.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A MAR-
GINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THIS WEAK DIFFLUENCE IS PRIMARILY THE RESULT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH IS SERVING TO DIM-
INISH CONVECTION OVER THE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN LLCC AND MARGINAL UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO POOR.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 210131

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 47/11/20072008
1.A FILLING DEPRESSION 11 (EX-IVAN)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/21 AT 0000 UTC :
24.0S / 42.0E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/21 12 UTC: 23.7S/41.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.
24H: 2008/02/22 00 UTC: 23.4S/41.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.
36H: 2008/02/22 12 UTC: 23.4S/40.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.
48H: 2008/02/23 00 UTC: 23.7S/40.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.
60H: 2008/02/23 12 UTC: 24.4S/39.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.
72H: 2008/02/24 00 UTC: 25.4S/39.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION OF IVAN IS WIDE, TOTALLY EXPOSED (ELONGATED FROM
THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH), OF A WEAK INTENSITY, GENERATING NEAR GALE FORCE
WINDS ONLY FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH. THIS IS NOT A TROPICAL LOW
STRUCTURE.
MINIMAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS LOW, BUT ASSOCIATED GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK
DUE TO THE FACT THAT ENVIRONMENTAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ARE ALSO LOW OVER
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.

THIS WIDE CIRCULATION IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WITH A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION, WHITHOUT
DEEPENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THEN TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BEYOND
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.

[Chacor]

[Coredesat]

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.1S 42.8E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.4S 42.5E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTHWEST OF
ANTANANARIVO MADAGASCAR. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETRY
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A CONCENTRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY (WITHIN ONE DEGREE) OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A MARGINALLY FAVO-
RABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. THIS WEAK DIFFLUENCE IS PRIMARILY THE RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH IS SERVING TO DIMINISH CONVEC-
TION OVER THE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1000 MB. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN LLCC AND MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENV-
IRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.



LLCC is now distinct enough to be seen on IR, but there's no convection anywhere near it.

[Sanibel]

I thought is was decoupled earlier but didn't want to be wrong.

[Chacor]

26 dead.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 221210

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 48/11/20072008
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 11 (EX-IVAN)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/22 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8S / 41.6E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/23 00 UTC: 21.5S/41.1E, MAX WIND=015KT, FILLING UP.
24H: 2008/02/23 12 UTC: 23.0S/41.0E, MAX WIND=015KT, FILLING UP.
36H: 2008/02/24 00 UTC: 23.5S/39.5E, MAX WIND=015KT, FILLING UP.
48H: 2008/02/24 12 UTC: 23.0S/40.0E, MAX WIND=015KT, FILLING UP.
60H: 2008/02/25 00 UTC: 24.7S/39.4E, MAX WIND=010KT, FILLING UP.
72H: 2008/02/25 12 UTC: 24.7S/38.0E, MAX WIND=010KT, FILLING UP.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
IVAN'S RESIDUAL CIRCULATION IS BROAD, EXPOSED AND POORLY DEFINED. THE
STRUCTURE IS NO LONGER TROPICAL. WINDS ARE WEAK CLOSE TO THE CENTRE AND
STRONGER WITHIN A BELT LOCATED BETWEEN 100 MN AND 300 MN FROM THE CENTRE,
MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
MINIMAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS LOW, BUT ASSOCIATED GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK
DUE TO RATHER LOW ENVIRONMENTAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURES OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL.

FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS, THIS BROAD CIRCULATION IS FORECASTTO REMAIN OVER
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY
TRACKING, WHITHOUT DEEPENING AS A PERSISTANT NORTHERLY WINDSHEAR DOES NOT
ALLOW TROPICAL REINTENSIFICATION.

THIS IS THE LAST WARNING RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM THAT REMAINS CLOSELY
MONITORED.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

Madagascar has appealed for help from the international community in the wake of Cyclone Ivan, which left at least 29 people dead and 18,000 homeless.

The storm struck the east coast of the island on Sunday, and was followed by torrential rains which caused flooding, leaving many communities cut off.

Winds gusting at more than 200km/h (125mph) caused widespread damage.

Officials say the difficulty in reaching isolated villages on this huge island are hampering relief efforts.

Although only two people were killed by the storm itself, the relentless downpour which followed has washed out roads, destroyed crops and left many communities accessible only by air or water.

This has prompted the authorities to make an appeal to the international community for assistance, with the government warning that, with the cyclone season not expected to end until April, further storms could follow.

The government says 55,000 people have been affected.

Foreign Affairs Minister Gen Marcel Rajeva said the situation on the ground was "deplorable" and highlighted why the international aid was so urgently needed.

"Whole villages have been wiped out, many roads are completely blocked, buildings have been destroyed and in the capital the water has risen extremely quickly," he said.

Flying over the capital, Antananarivo, where 8,000 people are homeless, it is easy to see the damage.

Huge swathes of low-lying land are under several metres of water, and video footage from the east coast, which bore the full brunt of the storm, shows roads that have been completely destroyed.

Indeed, 75% of buildings on the island of Sainte Marie, where the cyclone made landfall, are believed to have been destroyed.

A relief effort is under way but with the risk of disease increasing and the difficulty in reaching isolated villages on this huge island hampering relief efforts, Gen Ranjeva is warning that things are likely to get worse.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7259969.stm

[Chacor]

Nearly 145,000 people have been left homeless by a cyclone that tore through Madagascar, killing 44 people.

The figures double previous estimates of the havoc wreaked by the category three cyclone and have raised fears of a humanitarian catastrophe.

Cyclone Ivan struck the island's east coast last Sunday, and was followed by torrential rains which caused flooding, leaving many communities cut off.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7262125.stm

[HurricaneBill]

Death toll has risen to at least 60. Western media seems to show little interest in the situation.

Ivan, the forgotten hurricane

[HurricaneBill]

Cyclone toll rises to 83, with 177 still missing