South Indian Ocean: Invest 92S

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED LOCATED NEAR 11.3S
58.8E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DEIGO GARCIA. RECENT
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF AN ELONGATED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTLFOW
BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL ENVI-
RONMENT AND THE MINIMALLY-DEVELOPED LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.

[Chacor]

284
WWIO21 KNES 121453

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92S)

B. 12/1430Z

C. 10.4S

D. 59.7E

E. FIVE/MET-7

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS... NO LLC COULD BE FOUND. CONVECTION WARMING AND SHEARING
TO SOUTH.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.3S
58.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 58.0E, APPROXIMATELY 590 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF AN
ELONGATED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTLFOW BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.