South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone 27P (TD 16F)

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED LOCATED NEAR 12.7S
158.4E, APPROXIMATELY 735 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA.
RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 170843Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICT
FLARING CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF AN ELONGATED, LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND THE MINIMALLY-DEVELOPED LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POOR.

[HURAKAN]

17/1330 UTC 13.8S 158.3E T1.5/1.5 94P -- South Pacific Ocean

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPS21 PGTW 171830
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9S 157.9E TO 17.6S 161.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 171200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 158.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 181830Z.
//

[HURAKAN]

TPPS10 PGTW 171828

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF NEW CALEDONIA)

B. 17/1730Z

C. 14.0S

D. 159.8E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/STT: D0.5/06HRS (17/1730Z)

G. IR/EIR

38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .50 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. PT YIELDS A 2.0. DBO PT.

UEHARA

[P.K.]

GALE WARNING 012 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 17/2041 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16F [1000HPA] CENTRE WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.2S 160.0E AT
171800UTC AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. WITHIN 30 TO 100
MILES AWAY LFROM THE CENTRE EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE SECTORS
SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST TO NORTHWEST.
AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH DEPRESSION.

THIS IS THE WARNING ON THI SYSTEM.

[HURAKAN]

Latest!

[Cyclenall]

Looks fantastic with deep convection too.

[Squarethecircle]

Those are incredible temperatures. Kind of reminds me a bit of Noel (even a vaguely similar shape). I think this warrants a Tropical Storm, though I'm not sure if that's actually going to get through (it probably won't).

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 17/2307 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD 16F [1000HPA] NEAR 14.9S 161.0E AT 172130 UTC
MOVING SOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON IR/VIS WITH
ANIMATION AND SURFACE OBSERVATION. SST AROUND 29 DEGREE CELCIUS.

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS DUE TO THE DIURNAL
INFLUENCE WITH SYSTEM BECOMING SLOWLY ORGANISED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS.
16F IS EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND LIES UNDERNEATH A 250 HPA
DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER STRONG SHEAR
SOUTH OF SYSTEM. MOST GLOBAL MODELS [EC/UK/GASP/GFS] HAVE PICKED UP
THE SYSTEM AND AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH SLIGHT DEEPENING.
POTENTIAL FOR 16F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MODERATE-HIGH.

THERE ARE NO TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

[Chacor]

First warning on 27P was issued this morning.

180300Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 161.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 27P HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE ALONG THE SOUTH
PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). A STRONG 200 MB ANTICYCLONE
PROVIDING STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT. A 171907Z WINDSAT PASS SHOWS UNFLAGGED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS
NEAR THE CENTER. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD IN A
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ALONG THE SPCZ. THE GFS THE ONLY NUMERICAL
MODEL CURRENTLY RESOLVING THE STORM, AND CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK
SPEED IS LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF OBJECTIVE AIDS. THE STORM WILL
INTENSIFY IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND 20S. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE VICE INTERACTING WITH IT, AND THEREFORE
THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS OPPOSED TO UNDERGOING EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 171821Z APR 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 171830) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z AND 190300Z.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MY/171821Z APR 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 15.2S 160.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 160.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.7S 164.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.3S 167.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 22.8S 170.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 26.1S 175.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 161.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 27P HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE ALONG THE SOUTH
PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). A STRONG 200 MB ANTICYCLONE
PROVIDING STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT. A 171907Z WINDSAT PASS SHOWS UNFLAGGED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS
NEAR THE CENTER. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD IN A
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ALONG THE SPCZ. THE GFS THE ONLY NUMERICAL
MODEL CURRENTLY RESOLVING THE STORM, AND CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK
SPEED IS LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF OBJECTIVE AIDS. THE STORM WILL
INTENSIFY IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND 20S. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE VICE INTERACTING WITH IT, AND THEREFORE
THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS OPPOSED TO UNDERGOING EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 171821Z APR 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 171830) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z AND 190300Z.
//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 17.0S 164.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 164.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.1S 166.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.1S 169.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 22.7S 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 164.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE MAJOR CONVECTION MAY BE BEGINNING TO WANE HOWEVER
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETRY DATA SHOW UNFLAGGED WINDS OF 35
KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE SPCZ WHILE MAINTAINING INTENSITY DURING THE DIURNAL PERIOD
OF MAXIMUM CONVECTION. AS 27P NEARS 20 SOUTH IT WILL BEGIN ENCOUNTERING
HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHILE TRACKING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
VICE INTERACTING WITH IT. THE STORM WILL LIKELY NOT UNDERGO EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION, BUT RATHER, WILL DISSIPATE NEAR TAU 36 AS VERTICAL
SHEAR FURTHER INCREASES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z AND 191500Z.
//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 18/1457 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD 16F [998HPA] NEAR 16.6S 164.1E AT 181330UTC
MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST 18 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON
MICROWAVE,IR AND SURFACE OBSERVATION. SST AROUND 29 DEGREE CELCIUS.
SYSTEM HAS BECOME SHEARED, THUS LLCC IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.

CONVECTION HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE
SYSTEM IS QUICKLY MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST INTO A MODERATE TO HIGH
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT
WITH LITTLE OR NO DEEPENING. POTENTIAL FOR 16F TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

THERE ARE NO TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

[Squarethecircle]

Looks like it's following the jet down south. Shouldn't be too long before ETT or the like.

[HURAKAN]

Live fast, die young.