SE Indian: Tropical Cyclone Rosie (TC 28S)

[Cyclenall]

I'm not surprised, the wrap around effect that was displayed (this afternoon EST) was a dead give-away to the nearing of hurricane strength.

[HURAKAN]

Looking excellent.

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0108UTC 22 APRIL 2008

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 000UTC Tropical Cyclone Rosie located within 40 nautical miles of
Latitude ten decimal five degrees South [10.5S]
Longitude one hundred and four decimal eight degrees East [104.8E]
Recent movement southeast at 13 knots.
Maximum winds 40 knots.
Central pressure 988 hPa.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre increasing to 80 nautical miles by 1800
UTC 22 April.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 nautical miles of centre increasing to 50 knots by 0600UTC
22 April.
Winds above 48 knots within 25 nautical miles of centre after 0600 UTC with very
rough seas and moderate swell.
Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles increasing to 80 nautical miles of
centre by 1800 UTC with rough to very rough seasn and moderate swell.


At 1200 UTC 22 April: Within 60 nautical miles of 12.1 south 105.3 east
Central pressure 980 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 23 April: Within 80 nautical miles of 13.5 south 105.5 east
Central pressure 984 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 0700 UTC 22 April 2008.

WEATHER PERTH

[HURAKAN]

Not looking as good as before.

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued at 11:55 am WST on Tuesday, 22 April 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for Christmas Island.
At 11:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Rosie, Category 2 was estimated to be
120 kilometres southwest of Christmas Island and
moving south southeast at 22 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Rosie, although at category 2 intensity, is now moving away
from Christmas Island. Tides will continue to be higher than expected and will
combine with large waves that may cause flooding of low-lying areas today.

While the risk of sustained gales has diminished there remains the possibility
of squalls with gusts to 90 kilometres per hour today. The large swell is likely
to continue tonight.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Rosie at 11:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 11.2 degrees South 104.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 37 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 22 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals

The Christmas Island Emergency Management Committee advise that Christmas Island
is on YELLOW Alert. Residents should be taking action in preparation for a
cyclone impact.

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Tuesday 22 April.

This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[Chacor]

239
AXAU01 APRF 220712
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0711 UTC 22/04/2008
Name: Rosie
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 11.3S
Longitude: 105.2E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [46 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [141 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 980 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [28 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 22/1800: 12.3S 105.7E: 050 [095]: 045 [085]: 984
+24: 23/0600: 13.6S 105.3E: 075 [140]: 035 [065]: 990
+36: 23/1800: 15.1S 104.8E: 100 [185]: 030 [055]: 994
+48: 24/0600: 17.1S 104.3E: 130 [240]: 030 [055]: 994
+60: 24/1800: 19.2S 104.2E: 155 [285]: 025 [045]: 996
+72: 25/0600: 21.1S 104.3E: 185 [345]: 025 [045]: 996
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Rosie intensified rapidly overnight with microwave imagery
[SSMI at 2354UTC]
showing an eye evident earlier today.

Dvorak analysis: Curved band analysis is difficult on latest images, however
shear pattern and
time averaged curved band suggests DT=3.5 agreeing with MET to get FT/CI=3.5.

While upper divergence assisted in the development overnight the strong NW upper
level winds
are likely to inhibit further development, as recent imagery already suggests.
The increase in
shear should result in weakening in the next 24 hours.

The cyclone is moving on a southeast track but slowing and is likely to recurve
to the south then
southeast as it responds to the approach of another low to the northwest.
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1240UTC 22 APRIL 2008

GALE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Rosie was relocated to be within 25 nautical miles
of
latitude ten decimal eight south [10.8S]
longitude one hundred and five decimal seven east [105.7E]
Recent movement : east southeast at 6 knots
Maximum winds : 45 knots
Central pressure: 984 hPa


AREA AFFECTED
Within 20 nautical miles of centre in northern quadrants and 90 nautical miles
of centre in southern quadrants.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 45 knots near the centre easing to 30 knots by 1200 UTC 23
April.
Winds above 34 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre in northern quadrants
increasing to 90 nautical miles of centre in southern quadrants with rough to
very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 23 April: Within 45 nautical miles of 11.5 south 106.7 east
Central pressure 988 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 23 April: Within 75 nautical miles of 12.9 south 106.9 east
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 22 April 2008.

WEATHER PERTH

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ROSIE) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 11.5S 106.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S 106.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 13.0S 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 14.9S 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 106.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 28S (ROSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPEC SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SUS-
TAINED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS WHICH LENDS CREDIBILITY TO THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35
KNOTS FROM ALL FIXING AGENCIES. THESE ESTIMATES COUPLED WITH UN-
FLAGGED SCATTEROMETRY WIND OBSERVATIONS OF 35 KNOTS FORM THE BASIS OF
THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN TRACK
PHILOSOPHY AND TC 28S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WEAKENING WITH SLOW DISSIPATION
OCCURRING BY TAU 24 DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OFFICIAL TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
232100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (DURGA) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

[G.B.]

As I'm fairly new, I haven't seen two so close together before and so find it strange.

[Chacor]

[Chacor]

Has weakened below cyclone strength.

[HURAKAN]

Still not dead!