NWPAC: 台风“浣熊” STS Neoguri (0801/02W)

[CrazyC83]

Direct hit yes as the eyewall was touching land (like Ophelia in NC). Landfall I don't think so - the center of circulation appeared to be just offshore.

[Derek Ortt]

in a way the CMA is both right and wrong

It made a direct hit on the Hainan, but not a technical landfall

That said, those who lost their homes from Ophelia do not care about he landfall technicality

This could be the earliest direct hit though, so again, CMA is more right than wrong from a practical viewpoint

[CrazyC83]

If that happened in the US, it would have gone down as XY-1* (Category 1 direct hit but not an official landfall, XY being a variable representating the state affected), but I think the CMA used the fact that the eyewall had reached land to call it a landfall.

[CrazyC83]

Still a typhoon but barely according to the JMA; land interaction (and cooler waters?) are taking their toll.

[Chacor]

Downgraded to STS.

WTJP21 RJTD 190000
WARNING 190000.
WARNING VALID 200000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0801 NEOGURI (0801) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 980
HPA
AT 20.8N 111.5E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 23.0N 113.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[HURAKAN]

Bye!!!

[CrazyC83]

Looks like a LOT of dry air getting in there as well, the way the storm is being disrupted so much.

[Chacor]

2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. THE STORM HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM DUE TO
RAPID WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS WANED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE LAST FORECAST. TS 02W CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN CHINA. THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LIMITED INTERACTION WITH HAINAN,
AND LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT HAVE BECOME PRIMARY FACTORS FOR THE
OBSERVED WEAKENING TREND.
B. TS 02W CONTINUES TO BROADEN AND WEAKEN IN THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA, 60 NM FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MAINLAND CHINA.
THE CIRRUS-FILLED EYE FEATURE THAT WAS PRESENT 12 HOURS AGO
HAS SINCE DISSOLVED INTO A BROAD CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH
WEAKENED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED
ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD RANGING
FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. POSITION CONFIDENCE HAS ALSO DECREASED DUE
THE BROADENED NATURE OF THE STORM.
A. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
B. TS 02W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL
TO THE WEST OF HONG KONG BY TAU 12. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK FORECAST. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE
WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS IT ENCOUNTERS A HEIGHTENED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR GRADIENT NEAR 22.0N. ONCE ASHORE THE TOPOGRAPHY OF
SOUTHERN CHINA WILL EXPEDITE FURTHER WEAKENING. TS 02W WILL
DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 24.

[Cyclenall]

It doesn't even look like a tropical cyclone anymore.

[wyq614]

CMA LANDFALL Bulletin

中央气象台今天下午六点钟发布热带低压消息：
Tropical Depression information issued by CMA at 6pm Beijing Time (1000 UTC)
　　
　　今年第1号热带风暴浣熊（NEOGURI）于今天下午减弱为热带低压，并于下午2点15分在广东省阳东县东平镇再次登陆，登陆时中心附近最大风力有7级（17米/秒）。下午5点钟低压中心位于广东省台山市境内，就是北纬22.3度、东经112.7度，最大风力有7级（17米/秒）。

Tropical Storm 0801 (Neoguri) has weakened at the stage of tropical depression this afternoon and made a second landfall in Dongping Town, Yangdong County, Guangdong Province at 2:15pm, Beijing Time (0615 UTC). When making landfall, its maximum sustained winds is 7 bft (17m/s). At 5pm the system is centered in the area of Taishan City, Guangdong Province i.e. 22.3N 112.7E, with a maximum sustained winds of 7 bft (17m/s)　

　　预计，低压中心将以每小时15公里左右的速度继续向北偏东方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。

The system is forecast to move north-northeastward at a speed of 15km/h and gradually weaken.
　　
　　受其影响，今天晚上到明天白天，南海西北部海面、广东中东部沿海仍将有6-7级大风，部分海域阵风可达8-9级；广东中部及东部沿海、福建南部将有大到暴雨，局部地区有大暴雨。

Under its influence, from tonight to tomorrow, 6-7 bft winds is expected in the northwest part of South China Sea as well as coastal area of central and east Guangdong Province. Some part of sea water can expect 8-9 bft winds. Heavy rain, and for some areas, extremely heavy rain, is expected along the coastal area of central and east Guangdong, as well as the south part of Fujian Province.

[Chacor]

T3.0 from JMA at 12z, although clearly inland in China by 09z.

[HURAKAN]

Hasta la vista, Baby!

[Chacor]

Bulletin issued at 20:47 HKT 19/Apr/2008

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the
Hong Kong Observatory.

The Strong Wind Signal, No. 3 is in force.

This means that winds with mean speeds of 41 to 62
kilometres per hour are expected.

At 9 p.m., Tropical Storm Neoguri was estimated to be about
150 kilometres west-northwest of Hong Kong (near 23.0
degrees north 112.9 degrees east) and is forecast to move
northeast at about 18 kilometres per hour moving into
inland Guangdong.

Neoguri is weakening gradually. However, its centre
continues to edge closer to Hong Kong and local winds will
remain strong. The Strong Wind Signal No. 3 will be in
effect for some time.

Local winds have changed to the south tonight. Those areas
previously sheltered from the winds may become exposed.

Under the influence of Neoguri's rainbands, heavy rain
occurred today. More than 150 millimetres of rainfall were
recorded over widespread areas.

In the past hour, winds of about 61 and 68 kilometres per
hour were recorded at Chek Lap Kok and Cheung Chau
respectively.

[jams]

not really bye!, this small system was so powerful that it brought terrible weather to Macau and Hong Kong. It made landfall near Yangjiang, about 150km west of Macau.

We had gales in the afternoon and gusts were horribly strong. Over 200mm of rainfall recorded in the past 12 hours!!

Here are the 10min average windspeed plots of 2 stations for your reference, one on an offshore island (Cheung Chau) and one on mountain (about 600m high).

[Chacor]

Whoa, well above typhoon strength.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looks like category 2 strength on that graph:
145 kph = 91 mph 10 minute --> (110+) 1 minute
a gust likely into the 110s mph there.

[Derek Ortt]

yeah, but it was at the top of the mountain, where winds were aboujt 25% higher than at 10m

Still, it did pack a punch for sure

[zaqxsw75050]

isn't those reading recorded on higher ground on the outer island and closer to the storm center? i remember those station always have higher wind speed than the metro area.

[jams]

isn't those reading recorded on higher ground on the outer island and closer to the storm center? i remember those station always have higher wind speed than the metro area.

Sorry for late reply!! The 1st one on outer island is at 98m ASL. 2nd one on mountain at 603m.

Winds in metro area are significantly lower, the Star Ferry Pier (you will know if you've been to here) recorded max sustained wind of only 41 km/h, gusting 67 km/h.