WPAC: Tropical Depression (92W) - E of Philippines
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AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.5N 125.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 255 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. DEEP CON-
VECTION REMAINS LIMITED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CENTER, BUT A 270142Z
TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DISPLAYS DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BANDS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE DISTURBANCE LIES IN AN AREA OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
APPROXIMATELY 255 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. DEEP CON-
VECTION REMAINS LIMITED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CENTER, BUT A 270142Z
TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DISPLAYS DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BANDS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE DISTURBANCE LIES IN AN AREA OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5N
125.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 123.3E APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
DEPICTS A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH TIGHT TROUGHING AT THE
SURFACE. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED OVER THE DISTURBANCE.
A 272253Z SSMI MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE AND A 272115Z QUIKSCAT
IMAGE CONFIRM THE ABSENCE OF A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE DISTURBANCE LIES IN AN AREA
OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB. DUE TO LACK OF PERSISTENT
CONVECTION AND MARGINAL LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
125.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 123.3E APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
DEPICTS A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH TIGHT TROUGHING AT THE
SURFACE. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED OVER THE DISTURBANCE.
A 272253Z SSMI MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE AND A 272115Z QUIKSCAT
IMAGE CONFIRM THE ABSENCE OF A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE DISTURBANCE LIES IN AN AREA
OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB. DUE TO LACK OF PERSISTENT
CONVECTION AND MARGINAL LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
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