NW Pacific: TY Rammasun (0802/03W)

[CrazyC83]

This could very well become a super typhoon soon. I'd say 125 kt and 928mb right now.

[Chacor]

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 100600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0802 RAMMASUN (0802)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100600UTC 15.5N 132.1E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 160NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 110600UTC 19.3N 132.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 120600UTC 24.2N 135.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 130600UTC 31.0N 141.6E 270NM 70%
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

[Typhoon Hunter]

Yikes....very powerful typhoon and expected to intensify further up to 95kts. The Philippines must be breathing a sigh of relief!

[Cyclenall]

Look at the size of this beast! The eye is clearing out by the hour, maybe 135-140 knots now. I think it should be a Super Typhoon now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 MAY 2008 Time : 073000 UTC
Lat : 16:01:55 N Lon : 132:08:58 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 900.5mb/140.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.1 7.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

Center Temp : +7.0C Cloud Region Temp : -77.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Cyclenall]

The next IR image shows a completely cleared out eye, I say 145 knots now. The northern Hemisphere is rocking.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03W (RAMMASUN) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 15.5N 132.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 132.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 17.8N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.2N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.8N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 25.6N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 32.1N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 132.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 03W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 100600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z,
110300Z AND 110900Z.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like a possible category 5.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 MAY 2008 Time : 093000 UTC
Lat : 16:30:37 N Lon : 132:03:16 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 892.7mb/146.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.2 7.3 7.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.3mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 28 km

Center Temp : +15.1C Cloud Region Temp : -78.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[P.K.]

WWPN20 KNES 101125
CCA

A. 03W (RAMMASUN)

B. 10/0830Z

C. 16.2N

D. 132.0E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR DT CALCULATION. CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED
ESPECIALLY NW OF THE EYE AND THE EYE HAS WARMED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. EYE
SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS DT OF 6.0 AND SINCE THE WMG EYE IS RINGED BY CMG
AN EYE CORRECTION OF +1.0 IS ADDED FOR A DT OF 7.0. FINAL T BASED ON
DT WITH A MET UNREPRESENTATIVELY LOW FOR THIS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM.

[RL3AO]

This storm developed very very quickly. It was just an TS 36 hours ago.

[Rachell]

I'm quite confused that JMA only gives 90KT at the moment(the report was issued at 1840JST), compared with KROSA last year, which JMA estimated 105KT at its peak, RAMMASUN's organization and the temprature of the top of the cloud is better and colder than those of it.

Hopefully RAMMASUN will be at least 100KT in JMA's next issue...

[RL3AO]

Classic.

[P.K.]

TCNA21 RJTD 101200
CCAA 10120 47644 RAMMASUN(0802) 04168 11320 12444 270// 93613=


TPPN10 PGTW 101208

A. TYPHOON 03W (RAMMASUN)

B. 10/1130Z

C. 16.9N

D. 132.0E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS (10/1130Z)

G. IR/EIR

05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. 22NM WMG EYE SURR BY W GRAY
SHADE YIELDS A 7.0 DT. 1.0 ADDED FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT WITH
A CMG SURR RING AND A WMG EYE. PT AGREES. UNREP MET
YIELDS A 6.0. DBO DT.

SCANLIN

[HURAKAN]

As bad as they come.

[RL3AO]

Rammasun picked the wrong month to make a storm of the month run.

[Rachell]

RJTD estimates that the CI is 7.0 now, it is said that the intensity will be at least 100KT in JMA's next report.

[HURAKAN]

Rammasun picked the wrong month to make a storm of the month run.

Yep, that's tragically already taken.