ATL INVEST 94L: Discussion

[Hurritrax]

I'm currently in Nags Head and sustained winds are about 27 MPH, and had a gust a while ago of 38MPH......the ocean is looking just plain mean with some waves appearing to be in the 15 foot range. Heavy beach erosion up and down the beach from this system, and from a northeast wind that's been battering the Outer Bank since the weekend.....it's going to get nasty here tonight and tomorrow...expecting some overwash on Hatteras Island near Pea Island and Rodanthe....and possibly in Kitty Hawk where Hwy 12 and the ocean are literally just yards apart....

[HURAKAN]

24/1745 UTC 31.5N 74.8W ST2.5 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

[orion]

I teach HS in Beaufort, NC and the schools here in Carteret County sent all students who live downeast - towns of sea level, atlantic, and cedar island - home early because of overwash on the roads.

[cycloneye]

18:00 UTC Best track.

AL, 94, 2008092418, , BEST, 0, 317N, 750W, 55, 1007, EX, 50,

[OuterBanker]

Just went to beach access (one with stairs to top of dune). Sandblasted to top with winds that must be around 40. Ocean is huge and mad. And beach, well there is no beach as far as the eye can see (in northern Nags Head). Surf wash all the way to the foot of the dune line. btw, schools were released prior to noon here.

[Category 5]

I think it is extremely important to remember that regardless if this becomes a named system or not, it will still be a major troublemaker. The reports our friends in North Carolina are posting are showing quite dangerous conditions already.

[HURAKAN]

I agree but it will be named as RECON is going to pay a visit as I type.

[cycloneye]

Hay cycloneye where is the plane taking off from?????

By the coordinates it looks like Biloxi,MS.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

:uarrow: I agree but it will be named as RECON is going to pay a visit as I type.

What is important to look for if it gets upgraded or not is another blow up of convection over the LLC. If it blows up again around the time of recon, they may upgrade. It will also show that this is a tropical system.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I am not sure which post to stick this under 94L or 93L but on my google earth a ship east of Melbourne florida just north-east of the extrame northern part of the Bahama's and a ship reporting sustain winds nne of 44mph!!!!!!!!

I think the ship is around 28.0n and 77.w but it's in that area somewhere can someone confirm this!!!!!!!!

[jinftl]

Totally agree...the debate is over the structure of the system...warm core vs. cold core, etc. Conditions of at least tropical storm force are already forecast on the coast....as evidenced by the High Wind Warning which has almost the same wind threshold (sustained at 40 mph or higher) as a tropical storm warning (39mph or higher sustained). The coastal flooding impacts will happen regardless of whether this is tropical or subtropical as well. No one who would be impacted by such conditions should be waiting on an 'upgrade' to Kyle to make any preparations.

It is not a question of whether this system is strong enough to be 'upgraded' to a tropical system...the question is over the structure and whether it meets the criteria. 94L has winds that have been found that are well over the threshold to be a tropical storm....but it doesn't have the internal structure yet. Nor'easters can have hurricane force winds as well....remember the Blizzard of '78. But that wasn't called a hurricane either.

The NHC is not trying to downplay 94L by not calling it Kyle yet...solely a technical distinction on structure. The NHC explicitly stated there are winds of up to 65 mph in the north and nw portions of 94L. 65mph winds are 65mph winds...whether they come from Kyle or a subtropical storm won't make a difference to power lines, tree limbs, etc.

All of this debate about whether it will be a subtropical storm or subtropical hurricane, I mean who really cares? It is still a weather event with high winds and lots of rain. To me what you call it is irrelvant except from a theoretical point of view.

[cycloneye]

Will this mission find a warm core or subtropical cracteristics? For sure they will find very strong winds.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Will this mission find a warm core or subtropical cracteristics? For sure they will find very strong winds.

I think subtropical with a very weak warm core. The convection needs to reform over the LLC. I say 50/50 shot at upgrading by 11pm.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Hay cycloneye where is the plane taking off from?????

By the coordinates it looks like Biloxi,MS.

Thank you Cycloneye I just wasn'tsure but tyvm anyways

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A thought: I don't believe that another system besides a possible single hurricane in the western Caribbean in Late October will form below 25 north in this season. Meaning We will have to wait for another year for a MDR system to form. IF I'm right. I feel we will have 2 more subtropical systems after this, with that late October hurricane over the Western Caribbean.

This looked much better earlier, this is having problems forming deep convection over its LLC. In which tells me it is subtropical. It will be very close call if the nhc upgrades.

[capepoint]

You guys can argue all you want about tropical/sub-tropical. I can tell you this. I'm in Morehead City, its blowing hard, the tide is up pretty high, AND IT IS COLDER THAN CRAP! You almost need a jacket. I am almost convinced it is going to snow. lol

Seriously, It's pretty cool outside. I don't know if/where the air temp factors into the tropical/subtropical thing, but this feels more like a fall/winter noreaster than a tropical system. The cloud cover is the same way, tropical usually has some breaks of sun, but it has been totally overcast all day.

[jinftl]

Off topic I know...but keep in mind, some western caribbean october storms have been legendary.....mitch and wilma pop into mind....absolutely possible that we still see a hurricane this season....and it absolutely could be a major, esp if it forms in the 'october hotspot' that produced mitch and wilma. At least with those storms, there was no question as to whether they were purely tropical in structure...unlike 94L (trying to head back to the topic system at hand....lol)!

A thought: I don't believe that another system besides a possible single hurricane in the western Caribbean in Late October will form below 25 north in this season. Meaning We will have to wait for another year for a MDR system to form. IF I'm right. I feel we will have 2 more subtropical systems after this, with that late October hurricane over the Western Caribbean.

This looked much better earlier, this is having problems forming deep convection over its LLC. In which tells me it is subtropical. It will be very close call if the nhc upgrades.

[HenkL]

Observation 18Z:



Dutch ship (PCEO - Spiegelgracht) at 31°42'N / 76°06'W reported 36 kt sustained winds, pressure 1009,0 hPa.

Just N of Bahama's a German ship (DHEE - Essen Express) at 27°54'N / 77°00'W reported 39 kt sustained winds, but I doubt if that is reliable.

[wxman57]

Here's an 18Z surface analysis. Note all the 30-40 kt winds south of the low blowing away from the low center. Plenty of cool, dry air around this low, so it won't likely become tropical before moving inland tomorrow night. Certainly looks as "subtropical" as any other such storm the NHC has named in recent years. I really can't fathom why they can't bring themselves to name it without a plane in it first. Of course it's not tropical, but it may produce winds near hurricane force over the next 24 hours.

[CrazyC83]

What hints in the Recon mission determine whether it is tropical? subtropical?