NWPAC: 台风“浣熊” STS Neoguri (0801/02W)

[JonathanBelles]

That developed pretty quick. Interesting to watch when there are no other storms.

[senorpepr]

WTPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 13.3N 113.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 113.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.0N 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.4N 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.7N 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.8N 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.7N 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 22.3N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 23.8N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 112.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 19 FEET.
//

NNNN




The track has it going across western Hainan...

[HURAKAN]

Just beautiful!!!

[senorpepr]

Ship DGZL 12°24'N 111°06'E (140mi SW of 02W)
Time: 16th / 00Z
Visibility: 12mi
Wind: 320° at 32kt
Temperature: 82°F
Dewpoint: 77°F
Pressure: 1006.2mb
Weather: State of sky unchanged during past hour
Sky Condition: 8/8 stratus fractus 1000ft

[Category 5]

That developed pretty quick. Interesting to watch when there are no other storms.

*Slaps Fact789 around a bit with a large trout*

Thats always interesting to watch.

[Chacor]

Amazing development. Should be a typhoon soon, if not already.

JMA's 03z warning: 55 kts.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 13.3N 113.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 113.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.0N 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.4N 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.7N 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.8N 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.7N 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 22.3N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 23.8N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 112.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 19 FEET.

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

My guess is that it is really about 75 kt right now, with a pressure around 974mb. Too bad there are no Hurricane Hunters out there...

[senorpepr]

My guess is that it is really about 75 kt right now, with a pressure around 974mb. Too bad there are no Hurricane Hunters out there...

I would guess lower--I haven't seen anything to suggest that high. Based on satellite and observations in the area, I think 60-65kt seems reasonable.

[Cyclenall]

My guess is that it is really about 75 kt right now, with a pressure around 974mb. Too bad there are no Hurricane Hunters out there...

I would guess lower--I haven't seen anything to suggest that high. Based on satellite and observations in the area, I think 60-65kt seems reasonable.

I agree with this since the eye is struggling right now.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 010
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 13.4N 112.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 112.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 14.5N 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 15.7N 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.0N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.5N 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 21.4N 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 23.8N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 112.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM HAS SLOWED AND
TAKEN A SLIGHT WESTWARD TURN DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THESE
CHANGES TO THE STORM TRACK ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST. THERE-
FORE, THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY REASONING
REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING, EXCEPT
DISSIPATION IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.
//
NNNN

[wyq614]

CMA Bulletin

中央气象台今天下午六点钟发布台风消息：
　　今年第1号强热带风暴浣熊（NEOGURI）已于今天下午加强成为台风。下午5点钟其中心位于海南省三亚市东南偏南方向大约620公里的南海南部海面上，就是北纬13.5度，东经112.4 度，中心附近最大风力有12级（33米/秒）。

预计，台风中心将以每小时15公里左右的速度向西北方向移动，以后将转向偏北方向移动，逐渐向海南省南部海面靠近，强度还将略有加强。受其影响，今天晚上到明天白天，南海大部海面将有7-9级大风，海南南部和东部沿海也将有6-7级大风，台风中心经过的附近海面的风力有10-12级；海南南部和东部将有中到大雨，局部地区有暴雨。

Severe Tropical Storm 0801 (NEOGURI) has intensified and reached typhoon intensity this afternoon. At 5pm Beijing Time (0900UTC) it is centered some 620 kilometres south-southeast of Sanya City, Hainan, i.e. 13.5N 112.4E. Maximum sustained winds has reached 12 bft (33m/s)

This system will move northwestward at 15km/h and then curve northward and approach the southern coast of Hainan Island, intensifying further. Under its influence, 7-9 bft winds will occur in the major part of South China Sea and 6-7 bft winds for Hainan coast as well as east part of South China Sea. 10-12 bft winds near the center. Heavy rain to extremely heavy rainfall is expected in southern and eastern part of Hainan Island.

[HURAKAN]

[P.K.]

Unfortunately twister at ohio state is down so I don't have the latest JMA fix.

I had an e-mail this morning saying they have kindly restored access to it. T3.5 in the last sat fix.

[P.K.]

May well be upgraded to a typhoon shortly as they've just given it a T4.5.

[HURAKAN]

Deep convection around eye.

[Chacor]

TY Neoguri is here. First 64-kt storm in the NHem this year.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0801 NEOGURI (0801) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 13.7N 112.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 14.6N 111.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 181200UTC 16.2N 109.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 191200UTC 18.1N 109.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =