NW Pacific: TY Rammasun (0802/03W)

[P.K.]

105kts, 915hPa.

WTPQ20 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0802 RAMMASUN (0802)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101200UTC 16.8N 132.0E GOOD
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 270NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 111200UTC 20.9N 132.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 121200UTC 26.3N 136.7E 170NM 70%
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 131200UTC 33.4N 143.7E 270NM 70%
MOVE NE 23KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

[Pedro Fernández]

06 GMT 05/07/08 7.4N 133.0E 35 Tropical Depression
12 GMT 05/07/08 7.7N 132.3E 35 Tropical Depression
18 GMT 05/07/08 7.9N 131.5E 40 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 05/08/08 7.9N 131.5E 40 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 05/08/08 8.4N 131.3E 45 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 05/08/08 8.7N 131.5E 45 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 05/08/08 9.2N 131.5E 50 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 05/08/08 8.7N 131.5E 45 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 05/08/08 9.2N 131.5E 50 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 05/08/08 10.0N 131.9E 65 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 05/08/08 10.0N 131.9E 65 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 05/09/08 10.0N 131.9E 65 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 05/09/08 11.1N 132.2E 75 Category 1
06 GMT 05/09/08 12.0N 132.2E 80 Category 1
12 GMT 05/09/08 12.7N 132.2E 90 Category 1
18 GMT 05/09/08 13.7N 132.1E 115 Category 3
18 GMT 05/10/08 13.7N 132.1E 115 Category 3
00 GMT 05/10/08 14.5N 132.1E 140 Category 4
06 GMT 05/10/08 15.5N 132.1E 145 Category 4
12 GMT 05/10/08 16.9N 132.0E 155 Category 4

Only a bit stronger, and we will see RAMMASUN becoming a Super Typhoon Category 5................ DVORAK number raise to 7... (category 5).

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03W (RAMMASUN) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 16.9N 132.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 132.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 19.3N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 22.2N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 24.6N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 27.7N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 34.6N 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 132.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 03W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 615 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 101200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z,
110900Z AND 111500Z.

WDPN31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03W WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 03W (RAMMASUN) HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS TO A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT EXCELLENT CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLES WITH A WELL DEFINED
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL. THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED SLIGHTLY AND IS TRACK-
ING NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
B. TY 03W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED, MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUT-
FLOW WITH FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE AND WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN 37 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 127 TO 140 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND PHILOSOPHY REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
B. TY 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
EAST OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 24, TY 03W IS FORECAST TO TURN
INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTWARD AND TO ACCELERATE UNDER STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW. TY 03W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH
THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER, IN-
CREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA WILL INDUCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. AFTER
TAU 48, PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS WILL CAUSE
THE CYCLONE TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED THROUGH TAU 72 AND THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TRACK AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF
THE COMPLETION OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 72.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

[HURAKAN]

Upgraded to Super Typhoon!

[CrazyC83]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 892.6mb/146.0kt

I'd say 145 kt/902mb right now personally.

[HURAKAN]

Monster Rammasun.

[Chacor]

Remains 105 kt 915 hPa from JMA.

WTPQ20 RJTD 101500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0802 RAMMASUN (0802)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101500UTC 17.4N 131.9E GOOD
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 270NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 111500UTC 21.6N 133.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 121200UTC 26.3N 136.7E 170NM 70%
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 131200UTC 33.4N 143.7E 270NM 70%
MOVE NE 23KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

That eye sure is warming, this could strengthen further and become a monster of an extratropical cyclone.

[Sanibel]

I think Rammasun's quick development speaks for the likelihood of Nargis rapidly intensifying as well in a favorable environment.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

If this is not a cat. 5, then it's extremely close.

[Chacor]

Cloud tops no longer as intense, though. JMA at 100 kt; JTWC raised it back to 135 though.

[Cyclenall]

The convection around the eye is warming but the eye is also getting warmer and more round so it's a trade off.

[KWT]

I think its starting to respond to the lower heat content that its heading towards as the cloud tops tend to warm up as it reahces lower oceanic heat content. Still a very nice looking and powerful system however.

[wyq614]

CMA:

今年第2号强台风“威马逊”（RAMMASUN）的中心今天下午5时位于日本冲绳县(Okinawa)那霸(Naha)东南方向大约870公里的西北太平洋洋面上，就是北纬19.4度，东经131.9度，中心附近最大风力仍有14级（45米/秒）。预计，今天晚上到明天白天，“威马逊”将以每小时25公里左右的速度向北偏东方向移动，随后转向东北方向移动，强度将逐渐减弱。“威马逊”对我国近海无影响。

At 5pm Beijing Time, Strong Typhoon 0802 (Rammasun) is centered at about 870km northeast of Naha, Okinawa, Japan. i.e. 19.4N 131.9E(?!!), the maximum sustained winds is 14 bft (45m/s)(?!!). It is expected that, from tonight to tomorrow, Rammasun will be moving north-northeastward at about 25 km/h and then turn northeastward while gradually weakening. Rammasun won't affect Chinese seas.

The location is too south and the intensity is much too lower. In my forum almost all the users are scolding CMA.

[Chacor]

176
WTPQ20 RJTD 110900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0802 RAMMASUN (0802)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110900UTC 21.4N 132.3E GOOD
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 110NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
30KT 270NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 120900UTC 26.5N 135.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 130600UTC 32.5N 141.5E 170NM 70%
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 140600UTC 37.4N 147.2E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[P.K.]

45m/s is as high as the CMA have had 0802. The lowest centre pressure I can see from any of their advisories is 945hPa. At one point they were forecasting an increase to 50m/s with a centre pressure of 940hPa.

[HURAKAN]

Now really going down.

[HURAKAN]

Weakening fast.

[Ptarmigan]

It is weakening rather quickly. Must be over cooler water.

[senorpepr]

It is weakening rather quickly. Must be over cooler water.

I'd say somewhat. It's not only the water temperatures, but also shear.

The water temperature under Rammasun is around 80°F, which is slightly down from 84°F during it's peak.

However, Rammasun is beginning to encounter some shear associated with the mid-latitude trough.