ATL INVEST 94L: Discussion

[weatherwoman]

You guys can argue all you want about tropical/sub-tropical. I can tell you this. I'm in Morehead City, its blowing hard, the tide is up pretty high, AND IT IS COLDER THAN CRAP! You almost need a jacket. I am almost convinced it is going to snow. lol

Seriously, It's pretty cool outside. I don't know if/where the air temp factors into the tropical/subtropical thing, but this feels more like a fall/winter noreaster than a tropical system. The cloud cover is the same way, tropical usually has some breaks of sun, but it has been totally overcast all day.

I agree I am in Morehead too and the temp is in the hi 60's like 68 i think when I last cked, the wind is blowing like crazy no rain yet this does not have the hot humid tropical feel, i do know my sister was called into work for the whole night she works for a local elect co. i just read where some of the down east schools were sent home early, tropical or no tropical we are getting a storm and it could be a good one, so far its been more than we got out of hannah, i was at the beach almost the whole time during that it was nothing wind wise or rain, i'm headed to newport in about a hour and im sure ill have to fight the wind blowing me all over the road going home. then off to the beach tonight, hey has anyone heard who will be here from the weather channel yet? I enjoyed Jim Cantore during Hannah

[CrazyC83]

Will this mission find a warm core or subtropical cracteristics? For sure they will find very strong winds.

I think subtropical with a very weak warm core. The convection needs to reform over the LLC. I say 50/50 shot at upgrading by 11pm.

They likely won't have a conclusion by 5 pm, but I think it will be upgraded between 6 and 8 pm in a special advisory.

[wxman57]

What hints in the Recon mission determine whether it is tropical? subtropical?

Well, it's certainly not tropical. They'll look at the temperature difference inside vs. outside the center to see if there are any hints of a warm core.

[jinftl]

Current visible not looking too impressive...even when compared to this morning's visible posted ealier.

After Ike people have disappeared like the season is over. This system may bring them back!

As the front detachest it appears that this is clearly becoming tropical. I think it should be kyle very soon indeed.

[El Nino]

It will be named Kyle, because it's surely subtropical, but not tropical. But it doesn't matter. It only needs to be subtropical to be named.

[CrazyC83]

ANZ086-242100-
HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR OUT TO 34N 71W TO 32N 73W
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...

...N WALL OF THE GULF STREAM FROM 33.4N 77.3W TO 34N 76.2W TO
34.4N 75.6W TO 35N 75.2W...

.THIS AFTERNOON...W OF 74W...NE WINDS 35 TO 50 KT...EXCEPT NEAR
THE GULF STREAM INCREASING TO 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT...
EXCEPT NEAR THE GULF STREAM BUILDING TO 20 TO 30 FT. E OF
74W...E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT SUBSIDING TO
10 TO 15 FT LATE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGHOUT.
.TONIGHT...WINDS BECOMING E TO SE 20 TO 30 KT...EXCEPT W OF 76W
N TO NE 30 TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 15 TO 20 FT...EXCEPT
E PORTION 10 TO 15 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...WINDS BECOMING SE 20 TO 30 KT THROUGHOUT LATE. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 10 TO 14 FT...HIGHEST W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 8 TO 12 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...EXCEPT W PORTION BECOMING SW 10 TO
15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT...EXCEPT W OF 76W SUBSIDING TO 5 TO 8 FT
LATE.
.SAT...WINDS BECOMING SW 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS BECOMING 5 TO 8 FT
THROUGHOUT.
.SUN...SW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3
TO 6 FT...HIGHEST NE.
$$

[jlauderdal]

Observation 18Z:



Dutch ship (PCEO - Spiegelgracht) at 31°42'N / 76°06'W reported 36 kt sustained winds, pressure 1009,0 hPa.

Just N of Bahama's a German ship (DHEE - Essen Express) at 27°54'N / 77°00'W reported 39 kt sustained winds, but I doubt if that is reliable.

\

so the dutch are reliable and the Germans arent..

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Even so Me and Wxman57 see this as a subtropical storm. I believe the nhc won't upgrade with some minus 70 or 80 convection exploding over that center...It looks a little thin right now. We will see, because I could be proven wrong with a Advisory at 11 tonight.

[capepoint]

Ferry runs canceled due to weather

NEWS-TIMES
Published: Wednesday, September 24, 2008 2:08 PM EDT
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

RALEIGH — Due to high winds and water, the N.C. Department of Transportation's ferry division has canceled its afternoon runs between Swan Quarter and Ocracoke, Cedar Island and Ocracoke, and Cherry Branch and Minnesott Beach. The Currituck-Knotts Island ferry will end service at 3:30 p.m.

In addition, the Hatteras-Ocracoke ferry route is running on the hour instead of the half hour, and is expected to end service at 6:30 p.m. The Southport-Fort Fisher and Bayview-Aurora ferry routes are currently running as regularly scheduled.

Passengers should call 1-800-BY-FERRY for updated information as conditions may continue to change.

[orion]

from http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/forecasts/zone/nc/ncz095.txt

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1052 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

NCZ095-242030-
CARTERET-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BEAUFORT...EMERALD ISLE...MOREHEAD CITY...
NEWPORT
1052 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2008
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY...
.REST OF TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE.
STRONG WINDS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTH WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH...
INCREASING TO 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.

[orion]

from http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/MHX/AFDMHX

Had to smile at the confusion between "weather" and "whether" (see bold)

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG NE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY
WHERE WINDS HAVE GUSTED BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KT. VERDICT IS STILL
PENDING WEATHER THE SYSTEM IS TAKING ON TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
AND A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS INVESTIGATING THIS AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS OF WEATHER THE SYSTEM BECOMES TROPICAL THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS...A VERY WINDY AND WET PERIOD IS EXPECTED BEGINNING TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY FRI. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN SPREADING INLAND. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU THEN WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE
CENTER OF THE LOW NEARS THE COAST WITH GRADIENT WEAKENING. NO
CHANGE TO HEADLINES WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUING ALONG THE
COAST FROM CARTERET COUNTY NORTH WITH WIND ADVISORIES ON THE
SOUNDSIDE COUNTIES. LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY OVER INLAND ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S COMMON. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SLOWLY RISING DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING
BELOW 60 FAR INLAND OVERNIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS LOW/MID 60S
INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 BEACHES AND OUTER BANKS.

[CrazyC83]

Recon seems to be in the storm at 300mb - I guess it wants the upper level temperature first?

[wxman57]

Note the wind directions at flight level - ESE-SE winds well southwest and west of the surface low center in the sam place that surface winds are N-NNE at 35-45 kts. Points to a mid-level center well southwest of the low level center.

[GaryOBX]

Code: Select all

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
448 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 PM     STORM SURGE      RODANTHE                35.61N 75.46W
09/24/2008  U0.00 FT         DARE               NC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            WEB CAM DATA AT S TURNS IN RODANTHE SHOWING OCEAN
            OVERWASH PRODUCING APPROXIMATELY 1 TO 2 FEET OF WATER ON
            HIGHWAY 12.


&&


Here's the cam the NWS is referencing... slow site but shows where the road should be.

http://www.darenc.com/webcam/mirlo.php

[Ed Mahmoud]

Here's an 18Z surface analysis. Note all the 30-40 kt winds south of the low blowing away from the low center. Plenty of cool, dry air around this low, so it won't likely become tropical before moving inland tomorrow night. Certainly looks as "subtropical" as any other such storm the NHC has named in recent years. I really can't fathom why they can't bring themselves to name it without a plane in it first. Of course it's not tropical, but it may produce winds near hurricane force over the next 24 hours.

You and JB agree. Small snippet of his column shouldn't violate terms of service agreement...

You know what is really going to tick me off..when in 5 days they name the monster that is going to develop midway between Bermuda and the Azores It will be exact distance from any land mass that can be effected within 3 days, of origin in the non tropics, and it will get named.

[Blown Away]

It's close enough and I expect STS Kyle, they have to beef up the #'s a little because 7/4/2 does not look good for the remainder of the season. JMHO

[capepoint]

Water over nc12 on Hatteras Island and in Carteret County at Cedar Island. Water over roads in Craven County and Pamlico County as well. Forcasts are calling for 4-6 feet or more of flooding on south end of Pamlico Sound tonight and tomorrow. Winds gusting to near 40 mph.

Whatever happens with 94l, the winds have eastern NC already underwater. If it develops, even to a strong STS/TS or minimal hurricane, the flooding will be the same as a hurricane, because the water is already piled-up on the west and south ends of the sounds and in the rivers. Not a good scenerio at all.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Thunderstorm cluster North of the smaller thunderstorm cluster over the center just barfed out a semi-linear outflow boundary that is heading Southward towards the center.

I wonder whether that will rev 94L up, or just disrupt it even more.

[seahawkjd]

Starting to get really windy here around Emerald Isle. Already had some gusts to around 50 mph. Local Mets are saying there's already 4-6 feet of flood water and that it probably is going to get worse as what we're getting right now is from the gradient with the high not the storm itself.

[RL3AO]

This is what David Roth from the HPC said on Wikipedia.

"Oh, heavens no, at least not anymore. NHC made a change in the hurricane and subtropical cyclone definitions in 2004/2005. Any subtropical cyclone which reaches 65 knots is deemed a hurricane. Also, subtropical cyclone type B's (neutercanes) fall under the tropical cyclone category. Another subtle change that confounds interpreting the database. I think HURDAT should have its own midrash or Mishna. Oy!"