Madagascar: OVERLAND DEPRESSION ex. IVAN (TC 18S)

[HURAKAN]

85kts-959mb

[Squarethecircle]

Maybe a very strong TS, but I agree, 85 knots seems [more than] a little high.

EDIT: I can't seem to find any recent microwave imagery, but what I'm seeing on convective suggests this may develop an eye not too far into the distant future at the current rate of intensification.

[HURAKAN]

Madagascar, you have a problem!

[HURAKAN]

Ivan, and yes, ex. Hondo!!!

[Sanibel]

Could be a coast sweeper. 95KTS and increasing predicted for 16/18z.

[HurricaneRobert]

Weird. It's like Hondo's eye is all that is left.

[wyq614]

Landfall forecast!!

FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE IVAN

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 975 HPA.
POSITION LE 15 FEVRIER A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 15.2 SUD / 55.7 EST
(QUINZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE-CINQ DEGRES SEPT EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 630 KM AU NORD
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST A 18 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 15.9S/53.3E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 16.7S/51.4E
DEPR. SUR TERRE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 17.6S/49.1E

[Squarethecircle]

Hmm... It's still lacking an eye, though for the first time I think hurricane strength might actually be reasonable. Microwave shows a very wide eye-like area, although the most recent wave cuts at about halfway through the pattern (annoying). My thinking is that this should develop an eye before Madagascan landfall. I'd put the maximum intensity at landfall to be around 95 knots, though probably less.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 151245

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 34/11/20072008
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IVAN)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/15 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6S / 54.7E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 300 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 300
50 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 070

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/16 00 UTC: 16.0S/53.3E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/02/16 12 UTC: 16.8S/51.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/02/17 00 UTC: 17.4S/50.8E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
48H: 2008/02/17 12 UTC: 18.0S/49.4E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
60H: 2008/02/18 00 UTC: 18.3S/48.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, OVERLAND.
72H: 2008/02/18 12 UTC: 19.4S/47.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5- AND CI=4.5-
IVAN KEEPS ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AT 10 KT WITHIN THE PAST 6
HOURS.
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSE TO THE NORTH
OF
TROMELIN'S ISLAND WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AT 1200Z, AT TROMELIN
MSLP
IS 979.6 HPA WITH 10MN WINDS UP TO 51 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 72 KT.
0000Z NWP MODEL RUNS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS
TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE APPEARS NOW TO HOLD THE SYSTEM ON A GENERALLY
WESTSOUTHWARDS TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. IT
SHOULD KEEP ON REGULARY INTENSIFYING WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
(HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTAIN AND DECREASING SHEAR).
SPREAD ON THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM HAS REDUCED AGAIN
SENSITIVELY ON THE LAST RUN... GIVEN SOME CONFIDENCE ON THE GUIDANCE.
SO THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE PREDICTION
SYSTEM
SOLUTIONS.
IVAN IS NOW A SERIOUS THREAT FOR THE CENTRAL EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR.
WINDS EXTENSION HAS BEEN RECALIBRATED THANKS TO 0511Z ASCAT SWATH.=

[Squarethecircle]

Recent microwave and convective imagery supports the beginning of an eye structure (M-7 and AMSUB). It doesn't look very good for Madagascar right now.

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

Eyewall trying to consolidate. NRL says 85 knots.

[Squarethecircle]

Second image is four hours old. Check the more recent AMSUB image, which shows a slightly more consolidated eyewall (which is even more ominous).

I wouldn't be surprised if this is above 75 knots right now, the shape is amazing.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Squarethecircle]

Vapor shows it the best: Definite beginning to a banding eye here.

[Chacor]

Why does the title still say STS Ivan?

[Chacor]

TPXS13 PGTW 151513

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN)

B. 15/1430Z

C. 15.8S

D. 54.7E

E. THREE/MET7

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS (15/1430Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

15A/PBO BANDING EYE/ANMTN. A W EYE TEMP SURROUNDED BY A
B RING YIELDS A DT OF 5.5. MET AND PT AGREE. POSITION
AIDED BY THE 15/1351Z SSMI 37H MICROWAVE PASS. DBO
DT/MET/PT.

GEIS

[HURAKAN]

Looking good. Bad for Madagascar.

[Squarethecircle]

Definitely above hurricane strength now. Microwave shows a well-formed eye as well, should be well developed by 4 o'clock EST.

[parvez_savage]