NWPAC: 台风“浣熊” STS Neoguri (0801/02W)

[CrazyC83]

Looks like it is holding its own now.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 13.7N 112.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 112.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 14.6N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 15.6N 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.0N 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.7N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.3N 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 23.9N 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 112.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
161200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z
AND 171500Z.//

[Ed Mahmoud]

How densely populated is Hainan Island?

[HURAKAN]

How densely populated is Hainan Island?

Population (2004)
8,180,000

[HURAKAN]

[petet]

Hey you have a personal messege

[jams]

An alternative forecast by CWB, Taiwan
This agrees well with ECMWF

[senorpepr]

TCNA21 RJTD 161800
CCAA 16180 47644 NEOGURI(0801) 03147 11123 12344 245// 93510=

14.7N 112.3E T4.5

[HURAKAN]

From large to small in a matter of hours!!!

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 APR 2008 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 14:43:30 N Lon : 112:19:39 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 932.7mb/112.4kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 5.9 6.0 6.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.9mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : -17.2C Cloud Region Temp : -70.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[senorpepr]

ZCZC 070
WTPQ20 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0801 NEOGURI (0801)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 14.7N 112.3E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 171800UTC 16.4N 110.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 181800UTC 18.1N 109.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 191800UTC 20.3N 110.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =
NNNN



ZCZC 071
WTPQ20 BABJ 161800
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY NEOGURI 0801 (0801) INITIAL TIME 161800 UTC
00HR 14.7N 112.3E 970HPA 35M/S
30KTS 260KM
50KTS 100KM
P12HR NW 15KM/H
P+24HR 16.6N 110.5E 970HPA 35M/S
P+48HR 18.6N 109.5E 990HPA 20M/S
P+72HR 21.1N 109.9E 995HPA 16M/S=
NNNN

[senorpepr]

Ship DADD 13.6°N 113.8°E (126mi SE of 02W)
Time: 16th / 18Z
Visibility: 12mi
Wind: 160° at 35kt
Temperature: 80°F
Dewpoint: 75°F
Pressure: 1003.0mb
Weather: Recent drizzle
Sky Condition: 3/8 coverage

[senorpepr]

WTPQ20 RJTD 162100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0801 NEOGURI (0801)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 162100UTC 14.9N 112.3E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 172100UTC 17.1N 111.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 181800UTC 18.1N 109.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 191800UTC 20.3N 110.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

[Chacor]

TCNA21 RJTD 170000
CCAA 17000 47644 NEOGURI(0801) 03152 11121 11334 245// 93405=

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 80 knots

[RattleMan]

WTPQ20 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0801 NEOGURI (0801)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170600UTC 15.9N 112.0E GOOD
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 200NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 180600UTC 18.4N 110.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 190600UTC 20.4N 109.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 200600UTC 22.3N 109.3E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[KWT]

Interesting to see they upped it to 80kts despite at the time Hurakans images showed a rather weak looking north eyewall on IR...still vis imagery looks decent enough.

[wyq614]

Chinese Meteorological Agency -- Typhoon Emergency Alert (Orange)

中央气象台今天下午六点钟发布台风橙色紧急警报：
　　今年第1号台风浣熊（NEOGURI）的中心今天下午5点钟位于海南省三亚市东南方向大约350公里的南海中部海面上，就是北纬16.2度，东经111.9 度，中心附近最大风力有13级（38米/秒）。

A Typhoon Emergency Alert (Orange) is issued at 6pm Beijing Time (1000UTC) by CMA:
At 5pm this afternoon (0900z) , Typhoon 0801 (Neoguri) was centered at some 350 kilometres southeast of Sanya City, Hainan Province, i.e. 16.2N 111.9E, the maximum sustained winds near the center is 13 bft (38m/s)

预计，台风中心将以每小时10-15公里的速度继续向西北偏北方向移动，逐渐向海南省东南部沿海靠近，将于18日下午到19日白天在海南三亚到文昌一带沿海登陆，也有可能擦过海南东部沿海继续向北移动，强度变化不大。

The system is forecasted to move north northwestward at 10-15km/h and gradually approach the coast of the southeast of Hainan Province and make a landfall sometime between the afternoon of Apr 18 and the daytime of Apr 19 at somewhere between Sanya City and Wenchang City, Hainan Province. It is also possible that pass by Hainan without making a landfall and then continue moving northward. It may maintain its intensity.

受其影响，今天晚上到明天白天，南海中北部海面、海南南部和东部沿海将有8-10级大风，琼州海峡、广东沿海、海南西部沿海、广西沿海、北部湾海面也将有7-8级大风，台风中心经过的附近海面或地区的风力有11-13级；海南南部和东部、广东沿海以及雷州半岛将有大到暴雨，其中海南东南部的部分地区有大暴雨。

Under its influence, from tonight to tomorrow, A 8-10 bft wind is expected the north and central part of the South China Sea, the coastal area of eastern and southern Hainan. What's more, 7-8 bft wind is expected in Qiongzhou Strait, coastal area of Guangdong, western Hainan, Guangxi, as well as the entire Beibu Bay (Tonkin Bay). The system may produce 11-13 bft wind at where its centre has passed. Heavy rain is expected in southern and eastern Hainan, coast of Guangdong as well as Leizhou Peninsula, among which, extremely heavy rain in some area of southeast Hainan.

[wyq614]

Neoguri is to be the typhoon that makes landfall in Chinese mainland at the earliest time of a year (April 18-19) since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949.