NW Australia: Tropical Cyclone Nicholas (19S)

[Crostorm]

http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat2.html

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 44
Issued at 10:00 am WDT on Sunday, 17 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Exmouth.
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Exmouth to Cape Cuvier and
adjacent inland areas of the Warning zone.

At 9:00 am WDT Severe Tropical Cyclone Nicholas was estimated to be
320 kilometres north of Karratha and
510 kilometres north northeast of Exmouth and
moving west southwest at 7 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Nicholas is expected to take a generally west southwest
to southwest track during Sunday before taking a more southerly track on Monday
and approaching the west Pilbara coast. There is the risk of an impact from a
Severe Tropical Cyclone on the west Pilbara coast on Monday or early Tuesday,
with gales extending as far east as Whim Creek. Gales may extend south to Cape
Cuvier and adjacent inland areas later on Monday or on Tuesday.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nicholas at 9:00 am WDT:
Centre located near...... 17.9 degrees South 116.4 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 7 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 215 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 3
Central pressure......... 944 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal Pilbara communities between Whim Creek
and Dampier, including Wickham, Point Samson, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal Pilbara communities between Dampier and
Exmouth, including Mardie, Onslow and Exmouth.

People in coastal and adjacent inland Pilbara communities should listen for the
next advice.

The next advice will be issued by 1:00 pm WDT Sunday 17 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[Chacor]

AXAU02 APRF 170123
IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0122 UTC 17/02/2008
Name: Nicholas
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 17.9S
Longitude: 116.4E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [46 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [255 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 115 knots [215 km/h]
Central Pressure: 944 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [28 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/5.0/S0.0/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 996 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 17/1200: 18.8S 115.8E: 055 [100]: 080 [150]: 944
+24: 18/0000: 19.7S 114.8E: 080 [150]: 090 [165]: 936
+36: 18/1200: 21.0S 114.1E: 100 [185]: 095 [175]: 926
+48: 19/0000: 22.1S 114.0E: 120 [220]: 095 [175]: 928
+60: 19/1200: 23.4S 114.3E: 150 [280]: 050 [095]: 976
+72: 20/0000: 25.0S 114.6E: 180 [335]: 040 [075]: 986
REMARKS:
Although a DT of 5.0 could be obtained on a CDO analysis of the 2330 VIS image
[fairly well defined CDO of 1.75 degrees with BF=1.0] the MET is assessed at 4.5

and PAT does not adjust this upwards. Hence FT is assigned 4.5 but CI is held at
5.0.

Nicholas has intensified at less than the climatological rate over the past two
days
consistent with the continuing light to moderate shear over the system. Although
there
is some divergence in the models the consensus appears to be that shear will
remain
similar over the next 24 hours and hence a slow intensification rate is
forecast.

The forecast track is based on the consensus of a large number of members. ==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[Crostorm]

IDW24200
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 45
Issued at 12:45 pm WDT on Sunday, 17 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Exmouth.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Exmouth to Cape Cuvier and
adjacent inland areas of the Warning zone

At midday WDT Severe Tropical Cyclone Nicholas was estimated to be
490 kilometres north northeast of Exmouth and
310 kilometres north northwest of Karratha and
moving west southwest at 7 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Nicholas is expected to take a generally west southwest
to southwest track during Sunday before taking a more southerly track on Monday
and approaching the west Pilbara coast. There is the risk of an impact from a
Severe Tropical Cyclone on the west Pilbara coast on Monday or early Tuesday,
with gales extending as far east as Whim Creek. Gales may extend south to Cape
Cuvier and adjacent inland areas later on Monday or on Tuesday.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nicholas at midday WDT:
Centre located near...... 18.0 degrees South 116.2 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 46 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 7 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre reassessed at... 185 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 3
Central pressure......... 956 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal Pilbara communities between Whim Creek
and Dampier, including Wickham, Point Samson, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal Pilbara communities between Dampier and
Exmouth, including Mardie, Onslow and Exmouth.

People in coastal and adjacent inland Pilbara communities should listen for the
next advice.

The next advice will be issued by 4:00 pm WDT Sunday 17 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[G.B.]

IDW27400
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL SUMMARY: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0650 UTC 17/02/2008
Name: Nicholas
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 18.3S
Longitude: 115.8E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: southwest (236 deg)
Speed of Movement:6 knots (12 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 100 knots (185 km/h)
Central Pressure: 956 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 20 nm (37 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (28 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.5/W0.5/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km)
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+12: 17/1800: 19.2S 114.9E: 055 (100): 070 (130): 956
+24: 18/0600: 20.3S 114.2E: 080 (150): 070 (130): 956
+36: 18/1800: 21.3S 113.7E: 100 (185): 070 (130): 956
+48: 19/0600: 22.3S 113.4E: 120 (220): 050 (095): 976
REMARKS:
Nicholas has shown signs of weakening inteh last six hours. The CDO is much reduced in size, microwave shows a weakening trend and the inner core now appears to be more exposed to the ongoing shear. SSTs decrease along the forecast track and the shear is forecast to be maintained in the short term, then increasing as the system moves south of 20S and interacts with a strong surface high and a mid-level trough.

Further intensification is unlikely. Although upper wind observations indicate a broad mid level circulation the thermal core appears to be small and the system is likely to rapidly respond to increasing shear, especially as SSTs decrease.
the probability of a landfall is declining but is there is still a significant risk to coastal communities.Notes:
This product is issued every six hours; the Cyclone Advices (Watches and Warnings) are
usually issued more frequently and contain more useful information for coastal communities.

Time Conversion from UTC to local:
WST add 8 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
CST add 9 hrs 30 min
EST add 10 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[Squarethecircle]

Still looking rather weak. No more eye on microwave, and the convection seems pretty messy for a hurricane-strength storm.

[Squarethecircle]

Looking pretty good now.

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 48
Issued at 9:55 pm WDT on Sunday, 17 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Dampier to Exmouth.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Exmouth to Cape Cuvier and
adjacent inland areas of the Warning zone

At 9:00 pm WDT Severe Tropical Cyclone Nicholas was estimated to be
385 kilometres north northeast of Exmouth and
270 kilometres northwest of Karratha and
moving southwest at 12 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Nicholas is expected to continue on a generally
southwest track before taking a more south southwesterly track on Monday and
approaching the North West Cape.
Gales may develop between Dampier and Exmouth during Monday and may extend
south to Cape Cuvier and adjacent inland areas on Tuesday.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nicholas at 9:00 pm WDT:
Centre located near...... 18.7 degrees South 115.4 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 12 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 185 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 3
Central pressure......... 956 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal Pilbara communities between Mardie and
Exmouth, including Mardie, Onslow and Exmouth should be taking action in
preparation for the possibility of a cyclone impact.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in communities between Pt Samson and Mardie,
including the communities of Wickham, Point Samson, Roebourne, Karratha and
Dampier are advised to proceed with caution as near gale force winds are
possible overnight.
People in coastal and adjacent inland Pilbara communities should listen for the
next advice.

The next advice will be issued by 1:00 am WDT Monday 18 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 49
Issued at 12:45 am WDT on Monday, 18 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Dampier to Exmouth.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Exmouth to Cape Cuvier and
adjacent inland areas of the Warning zone

At 12:00 am WDT Severe Tropical Cyclone Nicholas was estimated to be
340 kilometres north northeast of Exmouth and
275 kilometres northwest of Karratha and
moving southwest at 13 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Nicholas is expected to continue on a generally
southwest track before taking a more south southwesterly track later today and
approaching the North West Cape.
DESTRUCTIVE winds may develop west of Onslow late on Monday or Tuesday morning.
Gales may develop between Dampier and Exmouth during Monday and may extend
south to Cape Cuvier and adjacent inland areas on Tuesday.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nicholas at 12:00 am WDT:
Centre located near...... 19.0 degrees South 115.0 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 46 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 13 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 185 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 3
Central pressure......... 956 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal Pilbara communities between Mardie and
Exmouth, including Mardie, Onslow and Exmouth should be taking action in
preparation for the possibility of a cyclone impact.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in communities between Pt Samson and Mardie,
including the communities of Wickham, Point Samson, Roebourne, Karratha and
Dampier are advised to proceed with caution as near gale force winds are
possible overnight.
People in coastal and adjacent inland Pilbara communities should listen for the
next advice.

The next advice will be issued by 4:00 am WDT Monday 18 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[Squarethecircle]

[HURAKAN]

[Crostorm]

IDW24200
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 50
Issued at 3:40 am WDT on Monday, 18 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Dampier to Exmouth.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Exmouth to Cape Cuvier and
adjacent inland areas of the Warning zone

At 3:00 am WDT Severe Tropical Cyclone Nicholas was estimated to be
330 kilometres north of Exmouth and
295 kilometres northwest of Karratha and
moving southwest at 12 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Nicholas is expected to continue on a generally
southwest track before taking a more south southwesterly track later today and
approaching the North West Cape.
DESTRUCTIVE winds may develop west of Onslow late today or Tuesday morning.
Gales may develop between Dampier and Exmouth during today and may extend south
to Cape Cuvier and adjacent inland areas on Tuesday.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nicholas at 3:00 am WDT:
Centre located near...... 19.0 degrees South 114.7 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 46 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 12 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 185 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 3
Central pressure......... 956 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal Pilbara communities between Mardie and
Exmouth, including Mardie, Onslow and Exmouth should be taking action in
preparation for the possibility of a cyclone impact.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in communities between Pt Samson and Mardie,
including the communities of Wickham, Point Samson, Roebourne, Karratha and
Dampier are advised to proceed with caution as near gale force winds are
possible overnight.
People in coastal and adjacent inland Pilbara communities should listen for the
next advice.

The next advice will be issued by 7:00 am WDT Monday 18 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 52
Issued at 9:50 am WDT on Monday, 18 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Mardie to Minilya, including
the towns of Onslow, Exmouth and Coral Bay.
A Cyclone WATCH extends south from Minilya to Carnarvon, and includes adjacent
inland parts of the Warning zone. The Cyclone WARNING from Dampier to Mardie is
CANCELLED.

At 9:00 am WDT Severe Tropical Cyclone Nicholas was estimated to be
315 kilometres north of Exmouth and
315 kilometres northwest of Karratha and
moving west southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Nicholas is expected to continue on a generally
southwest track before taking a more south southwesterly track this afternoon
and evening. DESTRUCTIVE winds may develop on the North West Cape during
Tuesday, possibly extending as far east as Onslow. Gales may develop between
Mardie and Exmouth later today or overnight and extend down the coast to Minilya
Roadhouse on Tuesday. Gales may extend south to Carnarvon on Wednesday.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nicholas at 9:00 am WDT:
Centre located near...... 19.1 degrees South 114.4 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 9 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 185 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 3
Central pressure......... 956 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal Pilbara communities between Mardie and
Exmouth, including Mardie, Onslow and Exmouth should be taking action in
preparation for the possibility of a cyclone impact.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near Coral Bay should commence taking precautions.
People in coastal and adjacent inland Pilbara communities should listen for the
next advice.

The next advice will be issued by 1:00 pm WDT Monday 18 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

[Crostorm]

IDW24200
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 53
Issued at 12:50 pm WDT on Monday, 18 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Mardie to Minilya Roadhouse,
including the towns of Onslow, Exmouth and Coral Bay.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Minilya Roadhouse to
Carnarvon, and adjacent inland parts of the Warning zone

At midday WDT Severe Tropical Cyclone Nicholas was estimated to be
280 kilometres north of Exmouth and
265 kilometres north northwest of Onslow and
moving southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Nicholas is expected to continue on a generally
southwest track before taking a more south southwesterly track this afternoon
and evening. DESTRUCTIVE winds may develop on the North West Cape during
Tuesday, possibly extending as far east as Onslow. Gales may develop between
Mardie and Exmouth later today or overnight and extend down the coast to Minilya
Roadhouse on Tuesday. Gales may extend south to Carnarvon on Wednesday.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nicholas at midday WDT:
Centre located near...... 19.4 degrees South 114.3 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 9 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 185 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 3
Central pressure......... 956 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal Pilbara communities between Mardie and
Exmouth, including Mardie, Onslow and Exmouth should be taking action in
preparation for the possibility of a cyclone impact.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near Coral Bay should commence taking precautions.
People in coastal and adjacent inland Pilbara communities should listen for the
next advice.

The next advice will be issued by 4:00 pm WDT Monday 18 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[G.B.]

[G.B.]

IDW27400
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL SUMMARY: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0703 UTC 18/02/2008
Name: Nicholas
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 19.8S
Longitude: 114.1E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm (37 km)
Movement Towards: south southwest (205 deg)
Speed of Movement:7 knots (12 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots (110 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots (155 km/h)
Central Pressure: 964 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm (19 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/4.0/W0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km)
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+12: 18/1800: 20.8S 113.6E: 045 (085): 060 (110): 964
+24: 19/0600: 21.8S 113.3E: 065 (120): 055 (100): 970
+36: 19/1800: 22.9S 113.1E: 090 (165): 045 (085): 978
+48: 20/0600: 24.5S 113.2E: 120 (220): 040 (075): 984
REMARKS:
Nicholas has shown some signs of weakening during the day as expected. Dvorak analysis: a shear pattern would seem appropriate and gives a DT of 3.5. A generous CDO analysis also gives 3.5. Both these agree with the MET and PAT and hence an FT of 3.5 is arrived at with the CI dropped to 4.0.

Shear has remained moderate over the system and is expected to contribute to weakening
over the next 24-48 hours, especially as the system moves south of 20S into cooler SSTs and then interacts with a strong surface high and a mid-level trough.

NWP indicate two scenarios as the system moves south and weakens. The low level centre may west into the Indian Ocean under the influence of the low level easterlies. However the models that favour this scenario tend to underestimate the systems current intensity and models which analyse stronger current intensity indicate a more south southeasterly track. The low level easterly flow is initially quite shallow and so this second scenario is favoured.
Notes:
This product is issued every six hours; the Cyclone Advices (Watches and Warnings) are
usually issued more frequently and contain more useful information for coastal communities.

Time Conversion from UTC to local:
WST add 8 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
CST add 9 hrs 30 min
EST add 10 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 55
Issued at 7:00 pm WDT on Monday, 18 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Mardie to Minilya Roadhouse,
including the towns of Onslow, Exmouth and Coral Bay.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Minilya Roadhouse to
Overlander Roadhouse.

At 6:00 pm WDT Tropical Cyclone Nicholas was estimated to be
195 kilometres north of Exmouth and
205 kilometres northwest of Onslow and
moving south southwest at 13 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Nicholas continues to move in a south southwesterly direction.
DESTRUCTIVE winds may develop on the North West Cape during Tuesday. Gales may
develop between Mardie and Exmouth tonight or Tuesday morning and extend down
the coast to Minilya Roadhouse later on Tuesday. Gales may extend south to
Overlander Roadhouse on Wednesday.

Tides between Onslow and Exmouth are likely to rise above the normal high tide
mark on Tuesday with very rough seas and possible flooding of low lying areas
especially if the cyclone passes close to Exmouth.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Nicholas at 6:00 pm WDT:
Centre located near...... 20.2 degrees South 113.9 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 37 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 13 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 155 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 2
Central pressure......... 964 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal Pilbara communities between Mardie and
Coral Bay, including Mardie, Onslow, Exmouth and Coral Bay should be taking
action in preparation for the possibility of a cyclone impact.

The next advice will be issued by 10:00 pm WDT Monday 18 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[Crostorm]

[Sanibel]

Looks further east than they are tracking.