NWPAC: 台风“浣熊” STS Neoguri (0801/02W)

[CrazyC83]

JTWC now has it at 90 kt (Cat 2).

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

I doubt it'll be at 90kts too long given the way the northern eyewall has decayed in the last 6hrs, I suspect once the southern eyewlal reaches the lower heat content it'll go the same way as the northern eyewall went, could be a fairly quick weakening occuring past 6-12hrs IMO...

[Chacor]

Still 80 kts from JMA.

[Chacor]

HKO:
Tropical Cyclone Warnings
Bulletin issued at 20:45 HKT 17/Apr/2008

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the
Hong Kong Observatory.

The Standby Signal, No. 1 is in force.

This means that a tropical cyclone now centred within about
800 kilometres of Hong Kong may affect us.

At 9 p.m., Typhoon Neoguri was estimated to be about 690
kilometres south-southwest of Hong Kong (near 16.5 degrees
north 111.8 degrees east) and is forecast to move
north-northwest at about 12 kilometres per hour in the
general direction of Hainan Island.

Under the combined effect of the northeast monsoon and
Neoguri, winds locally will strengthen tomorrow. With
Neoguri staying on its current course, the chance of
issuing the Strong Wind Signal No.3 overnight is not high.

[jams]

I doubt it'll be at 90kts too long given the way the northern eyewall has decayed in the last 6hrs, I suspect once the southern eyewlal reaches the lower heat content it'll go the same way as the northern eyewall went, could be a fairly quick weakening occuring past 6-12hrs IMO...

Yup, WV shows dry air invading from the northwest. PGTW gave 85KT in their latest 12Z advisory.

Here in HK winds are strengthening steadily.

[Chacor]

Almost 25 kts on that chart now.

[HURAKAN]

[petet]

CATEGORY 3 - 95KTS

[RattleMan]

CATEGORY 3 - 95KTS

Not quite. Category 3 begins at 111 mph, and 95 knots is 109 mph.

[HURAKAN]

CATEGORY 3 - 95KTS

17/1457 UTC 16.9N 111.8E T5.5/5.5 NEOGURI -- West Pacific Ocean

Dvorak says 100 knots.

[CrazyC83]

How common are such strong storms in the WPAC in April?

[HURAKAN]

How common are such strong storms in the WPAC in April?

April:

2007 - Typhoon Kong-Rey [ 80 knts ]

2005 - Typhoon Sonca [ 90 knots ]

2004 - Typhoon Sudal [ 90 knots ]

2003 - Typhoon Kujira [ 90 knts ]

And if we continue down the years, there should be more.

[KWT]

Yeah so much for it weakening it looks pretty impressive...not sure you can read too much into the dvorak reading as its been around the 5.5 mark for the last 18hrs even when it looked less then impressive in the morning...however I wouldn't be surprised if this was 100-105kts looking at it right now. places in the path beware!

Typhoon Sonca made it to cat-4 in April 2005 so it does happen sometimes.

[HURAKAN]

[HurricaneBill]

What are those islands Neoguri is currently moving over?

[HURAKAN]

:uarrow: What are those islands Neoguri is currently moving over?

Paracel Islands

[Cyclone1]

o_O

I'm away from the computer for two days and I miss this?

Pretty impressive for a category 2 equivalent.

[HURAKAN]

Beginning to weaken.

[senorpepr]

WTPN31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 17.2N 111.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 111.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.6N 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 20.1N 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 21.7N 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 23.7N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 27.6N 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 111.8E.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
171800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z,
181500Z AND 182100Z.
//
NNNN




ZCZC 418
WTPQ20 RJTD 172100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0801 NEOGURI (0801)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 172100UTC 17.5N 111.9E GOOD
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 200NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 182100UTC 19.8N 111.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 191800UTC 21.2N 111.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 201800UTC 23.0N 111.3E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
NNNN




ZCZC 425
WTPQ20 BABJ 172200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY NEOGURI 0801 (0801) INITIAL TIME 172200 UTC
00HR 17.6N 111.4E 965HPA 38M/S
30KTS 300KM
50KTS 100KM
P12HR NNW 15KM/H=
NNNN


TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS
BULLETIN ISSUED AT 04:09 L.T. 18-APRIL-2008
HERE IS THE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE MACAU METEOROGICAL AND GEOPHYSICAL BUREAU.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN EFFECT AND THE SIGNAL NO. 1 IS HOISTED.
THIS MEANS THAT ALERT SIGNAL: THE CENTRE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LESS THAN 800 KILOMETERS FROM MSAR AND MAY LATER AFFECT THE MSAR.

AT 04:00, (0801) TYPHOON "NEOGURI" WAS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 550 KILOMETRES SSW OF MACAU (NEAR 17.4ºN, 111.8ºE). IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNW AT AROUND 14KM/H.
THE STANDBY SIGNAL NO. 1 IS STILL HOISTED.


PRECAUTIONARY ANNOUNCEMENTS WITH SIGNAL NO. 1 :
CHECK THE SAFETY OF OBJECTS WHICH MIGHT BE CARRIED OR DESTROYED BY THE WINDS SUCH AS FENCES, SCAFFOLDINGS, FLOWER POTS, ANTENNAE (AEREALS ), ETC. KEEP BOATS AND SMALL CRAFTS IN THE NEARBY SHELTERS.