NW Australia: Tropical Cyclone Nicholas (19S)

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 58
Issued at 3:30 am WDT on Tuesday, 19 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Mardie to Cape Cuvier,
including the towns of Onslow, Exmouth and Coral Bay.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Minilya Roadhouse to
Overlander Roadhouse including Carnarvon.

At 3:00 am WDT Tropical Cyclone Nicholas was estimated to be
130 kilometres north northwest of Exmouth and
250 kilometres north of Coral Bay and
moving south southwest at 11 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Nicholas continues to move in a south southwesterly direction.
Despite indications of weakening Nicholas may still be at category 2 intensity
as it approaches the North West Cape region this morning. As a result
DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour may develop on the North
West Cape this morning. Gales with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are
beginning to affect the North West Cape region, and may extend to coastal areas
between Mardie and Coral Bay during this morning, then extend down the coast to
Cape Cuvier later today. Gales may then extend south to Overlander Roadhouse on
Wednesday.

Tides between Onslow and Exmouth are likely to rise above the normal high tide
mark today, with very rough seas and possible flooding of low lying areas
especially if the cyclone passes close to Exmouth.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Nicholas at 3:00 am WDT:
Centre located near...... 20.9 degrees South 113.5 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 28 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 11 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 155 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 2
Central pressure......... 964 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal Pilbara communities between Mardie and
Coral Bay, including Mardie, Onslow, Exmouth and Coral Bay should be taking
action in preparation for the possibility of a cyclone impact.


The next advice will be issued by 7:00 am WDT Tuesday 19 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210



The eye is on the radar. http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR292.loop.shtml

[Squarethecircle]

I see no eye.

[HURAKAN]

NW Corner, between 100 & 200 km.

Easier to see in the loop. http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR29 ... =true#skip

[Squarethecircle]

No, I know what you mean, but it just doesn't look like any eye I've ever seen. Plus, it just so happens that the feature is only observable on radar, not convective or microwave.

[G.B.]

IDW24200
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: Transmitters serving the Exmouth area are requested to USE the Standard
Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 60
Issued at 10:00 am WDT on Tuesday, 19 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Mardie to Carnarvon,
including the towns of Onslow, Exmouth and Coral Bay.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Carnarvon to Overlander
Roadhouse.

At 9:00 am WDT Tropical Cyclone Nicholas was estimated to be
95 kilometres northwest of Exmouth and
195 kilometres north northwest of Coral Bay and
moving south at 11 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Nicholas is now moving in a general southerly direction and
remains a category 2 system. DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 150 kilometres per
hour may develop in the Exmouth region today. Gales with gusts to 110 kilometres
per hour are affecting coastal areas east to Mardie, and may extend southwards
to Coral Bay later today, then further down the coast possibly extending to
Carnarvon on Wednesday. Gales may affect coastal areas further south to
Overlander Roadhouse later on Wednesday.

Tides between Onslow and Exmouth are likely to rise above the normal high tide
mark today, with very rough seas and possible flooding of low lying areas.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Nicholas at 9:00 am WDT:
Centre located near...... 21.4 degrees South 113.4 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 37 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the south at 11 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 155 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 2
Central pressure......... 964 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near Exmouth should move to shelter.
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal Pilbara communities between Mardie and
Coral Bay, including Mardie, Onslow and Coral Bay should be taking action in
preparation for the possibility of a cyclone impact.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Cape Cuvier and
Carnarvon including Carnarvon should start taking precautions.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am WDT Tuesday 19 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[G.B.]

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: Transmitters serving the Exmouth area are requested to USE the Standard
Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 61
Issued at 11:00 am WDT on Tuesday, 19 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Mardie to Carnarvon,
including the towns of Onslow, Exmouth and Coral Bay.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Carnarvon to Overlander
Roadhouse.

At 11:00 am WDT Tropical Cyclone Nicholas was estimated to be
90 kilometres west northwest of Exmouth and
185 kilometres north northwest of Coral Bay and
moving south at 10 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Nicholas is now moving in a general southerly direction and
remains a category 2 system. DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 150 kilometres per
hour may develop in the Exmouth region today. Gales with gusts to 110 kilometres
per hour are affecting coastal areas east to Mardie, and may extend southwards
to Coral Bay later today, then further down the coast possibly extending to
Carnarvon on Wednesday. Gales may affect coastal areas further south to
Overlander Roadhouse later on Wednesday.

Tides in Exmouth Gulf are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark today,
with very rough seas and possible flooding of low lying areas.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Nicholas at 11:00 am WDT:
Centre located near...... 21.5 degrees South 113.4 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 37 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the south at 10 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 155 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 2
Central pressure......... 964 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near Exmouth should move to shelter.
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal Pilbara communities between Mardie and
Coral Bay, including Mardie, Onslow and Coral Bay should be taking action in
preparation for the possibility of a cyclone impact.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Cape Cuvier and
Carnarvon including Carnarvon should start taking precautions.

The next advice will be issued by midday WDT Tuesday 19 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

[Sanibel]

The IR makes it look like the eye hit the coast near Exmouth. Can't tell. The storm is badly formed with a dry desert air boundary to the east.

[G.B.]

IDW24200
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: Transmitters serving the Exmouth area are requested to USE the Standard
Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 63
Issued at 1:00 pm WDT on Tuesday, 19 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Onslow to Carnarvon,
including the towns of Onslow, Exmouth and Coral Bay.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Carnarvon to Overlander
Roadhouse.
The Cyclone WARNING from Mardie to Onslow has been cancelled.

At 1:00 pm WDT Tropical Cyclone Nicholas was estimated to be
85 kilometres west northwest of Exmouth and
175 kilometres north northwest of Coral Bay and
moving south at 10 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Nicholas is moving in a general southerly direction and remains
a category 2 system. DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour may
occur in the Exmouth region today. Gales with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour
are affecting coastal areas east to Onslow, and may extend southwards to Coral
Bay later today, then further down the coast possibly extending to Carnarvon on
Wednesday. Gales may affect coastal areas further south to Overlander Roadhouse
later on Wednesday.

Tides in Exmouth Gulf are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark today,
with very rough seas and possible flooding of low lying areas.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Nicholas at 1:00 pm WDT:
Centre located near...... 21.6 degrees South 113.4 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 37 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the south at 10 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 155 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 2
Central pressure......... 964 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near Exmouth should move to shelter.
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal Pilbara communities between Onslow and
Coral Bay, including Onslow and Coral Bay should be taking action in preparation
for the possibility of a cyclone impact.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Cape Cuvier and
Carnarvon including Carnarvon should start taking precautions.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in communities between Mardie and Onslow are
advised to proceed with caution.

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm WDT Tuesday 19 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[G.B.]

IDW24200
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: Transmitters serving the Exmouth area are requested to USE the Standard
Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 64
Issued at 2:05 pm WDT on Tuesday, 19 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Onslow to Carnarvon,
including the towns of Onslow, Exmouth and Coral Bay.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Carnarvon to Overlander
Roadhouse.

At 2:00 pm WDT Tropical Cyclone Nicholas was estimated to be
80 kilometres west northwest of Exmouth and
165 kilometres north northwest of Coral Bay and
moving south at 9 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Nicholas is moving in a general southerly direction and remains
a category 2 system. DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour may
occur in the Exmouth region today. Gales with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour
are affecting coastal areas east to Onslow, and may extend southwards to Coral
Bay later today, then further down the coast possibly extending to Carnarvon on
Wednesday. Gales may affect coastal areas further south to Overlander Roadhouse
later on Wednesday.

Tides in Exmouth Gulf and on the west coastal parts of North West Cape are
likely to rise above the normal high tide mark today, with very rough seas and
possible flooding of low lying areas.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Nicholas at 2:00 pm WDT:
Centre located near...... 21.7 degrees South 113.4 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 37 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the south at 9 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 155 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 2
Central pressure......... 964 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near Exmouth should move to shelter.
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal Pilbara communities between Onslow and
Coral Bay, including Onslow and Coral Bay should be taking action in preparation
for the possibility of a cyclone impact.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Cape Cuvier and
Carnarvon including Carnarvon should start taking precautions.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in communities between Mardie and Onslow are
advised to proceed with caution.

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WDT Tuesday 19 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[G.B.]

Weakening but travelling faster

IDW24200
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: Transmitters serving the Exmouth area are requested to USE the Standard
Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 65
Issued at 3:10 pm WDT on Tuesday, 19 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Onslow to Carnarvon,
including the towns of Onslow, Exmouth and Coral Bay.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Carnarvon to Overlander
Roadhouse.

At 3:00 pm WDT Tropical Cyclone Nicholas was estimated to be
75 kilometres west of Exmouth and
140 kilometres north northwest of Coral Bay and
moving south at 11 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Nicholas is moving in a general southerly direction and remains
a category 2 system. DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 140 kilometres per hour may
occur in the Exmouth region today. Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour
are affecting coastal areas east to Onslow, and may extend southwards to Coral
Bay later today, then further down the coast possibly extending to Carnarvon on
Wednesday. Gales may affect coastal areas further south to Overlander Roadhouse
later on Wednesday.

Tides on the southern side of Exmouth Gulf and on west coastal parts of North
West Cape are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark today, with very
rough seas and possible flooding of low lying areas.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Nicholas at 3:00 pm WDT:
Centre located near...... 21.9 degrees South 113.4 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 37 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the south at 11 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 150 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 2
Central pressure......... 968 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near Exmouth should move to shelter.
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal Pilbara communities between Onslow and
Coral Bay, including Onslow and Coral Bay should be taking action in preparation
for the possibility of a cyclone impact.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Cape Cuvier and
Carnarvon including Carnarvon should start taking precautions.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in communities between Mardie and Onslow are
advised to proceed with caution.

The next advice will be issued by 4:00 pm WDT Tuesday 19 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[Crostorm]

[G.B.]

[G.B.]

IDW24200
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 68
Issued at 9:55 pm WDT on Tuesday, 19 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Exmouth to Carnarvon.
The Cyclone WARNING from Onslow to Exmouth has been cancelled.
The Cyclone WATCH for coastal areas from Carnarvon to Overlander Roadhouse has
been cancelled.

At 9:00 pm WDT Tropical Cyclone Nicholas was estimated to be
60 kilometres southwest of Exmouth and
90 kilometres north of Coral Bay and
moving south at 11 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Nicholas has been relocated based on radar, satellite and
surface observations and is situated very close to the coast. It has weakened a
little during the day but remains a Category 2 system. Destructive winds with
gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may occur over west coastal parts between North
West Cape and Coral Bay overnight. Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour
are affecting the North West Cape, and are likely to extend southwards to Coral
Bay overnight. Gales may extend further down the coast to Carnarvon on
Wednesday.

Tides on the southern side of Exmouth Gulf and over west coastal parts between
Coral Bay and North West Cape are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark
tonight, with very rough seas and possible flooding of low lying areas.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Nicholas at 9:00 pm WDT:
Centre located near...... 22.3 degrees South 113.7 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the south at 11 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 2
Central pressure......... 974 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near Coral Bay should move to shelter.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Cape Cuvier and
Carnarvon, including Carnarvon, should start taking precautions.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in or near the communities of Onslow and Exmouth
are advised to proceed with caution.
The next advice will be issued by 1:00 am WDT Wednesday 20 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone


These positions seem to suggest to me a slight SSE direction rather than South.

[Frank2]

I find the alert levels interesting - it seems to give a very good plain language explanation of what citizens need to do, based on the proximity to the system...

[HURAKAN]

Near landfall:


Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 69
Issued at 12:55 am WDT on Wednesday, 20 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Exmouth to Carnarvon.

At midnight WDT Tropical Cyclone Nicholas was estimated to be
60 kilometres north of Coral Bay and
255 kilometres north of Carnarvon and
moving south at 11 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Nicholas is situated very close to the coast. The cyclone
weakened a little during Tuesday but remains a Category 2 system. DESTRUCTIVE
winds with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may occur over west coastal parts
between North West Cape and Coral Bay early this morning. Gales with gusts to
120 kilometres per hour are affecting the west coast between North West Cape and
Coral Bay. Gales may extend further down the coast to Carnarvon later today.

Tides on the southern side of Exmouth Gulf and over west coastal parts between
Coral Bay and North West Cape are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark
during the next few hours, with very rough seas and possible flooding of low
lying areas.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Nicholas at midnight WDT:
Centre located near...... 22.6 degrees South 113.7 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the south at 11 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 2
Central pressure......... 974 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near Coral Bay should take shelter.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Cape Cuvier and
Carnarvon including Carnarvon should start taking precautions.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in or near the communities of Onslow and Exmouth
are advised to proceed with caution.
The next advice will be issued by 4:00 am WDT Wednesday 20 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

[JonathanBelles]

Can you please post images through imageshack or something...all the (forecast) images here are the same.

[KWT]

Convection is starting to become shallower in nature though close to the center its still fairly deep. Hopefully there won't be too much damage on those western coasts that are exposed to the cyclone.

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 71
Issued at 6:50 am WDT on Wednesday, 20 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Exmouth to Carnarvon.

At 6:00 am WDT Tropical Cyclone Nicholas was estimated to be
19 kilometres west of Coral Bay and
200 kilometres north of Carnarvon and
moving south at 9 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Nicholas is situated just west of Coral Bay and continues to
move in a southerly direction. DAMAGING winds with gusts to 100 kilometres per
hour are likely between North West Cape and Cape Cuvier and may extend south to
Carnarvon during today. Nicholas is expected to continue to weaken as the
cyclone moves further south. Winds should ease near North West Cape later this
morning.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Nicholas at 6:00 am WDT:
Centre located near...... 23.1 degrees South 113.6 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 37 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the south at 9 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 1
Central pressure......... 982 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near Coral Bay should move to shelter.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Cape Cuvier and
Carnarvon including Carnarvon should start taking precautions.
The next advice will be issued by 10:00 am WDT Wednesday 20 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

______________________________________

Nicholas made landfall according to the map. Now back on water.

[G.B.]