Mozambique Channel: Moderate Tropical Storm Jokwe (TC 22S)

[Cyclenall]

This is remarkable, how can it turn due north like that in the forecast? It's like a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic that is heading out to sea going back south closer to the equator, and strengthening again.

This might edge out to be the weather story of the month.

[HurricaneBill]

I wonder if any weather observations have come from the island of Europa. Although the island is uninhabited, there is a meteorological station there. It looks like Jokwe passed close to it.

[HurricaneBill]

AFP: Mozambique cyclone toll rises to 16

[Meso]

It does have a weather station with barometer but no anemometer. Local weather service did a small write up on it.

http://www.weathersa.co.za/Pressroom/20 ... yclone.jsp

[HURAKAN]

Atmospheric conditions are becoming unfavorable.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS32 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 25.1S 41.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.1S 41.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 26.1S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 26.6S 40.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 26.7S 40.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 26.5S 40.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 25.4S 41.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST-
WARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW POSITIONED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ALLOWING A WEAK STEERING RIDGE TO BUILD IN
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS RIDGE AND ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE FORMING
TO THE WEST WILL CAUSE TC 22S TO PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TAU 12 BEFORE TURNING MORE WESTWARD AND BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY
NEAR TAU 36. TC 22S WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 23S (KAMBA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 616
WTIO30 FMEE 120011
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 30/12/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JOKWE)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/12 AT 0000 UTC :
25.1S / 40.8E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/4.0 /W 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 250 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 550 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/12 12 UTC: 25.3S/40.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2008/03/13 00 UTC: 25.4S/39.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2008/03/13 12 UTC: 25.1S/39.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
48H: 2008/03/14 00 UTC: 24.8S/39.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
60H: 2008/03/14 12 UTC: 24.4S/39.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
72H: 2008/03/15 00 UTC: 24.0S/39.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0+ CI=4.0+
THE CENTER HAS BEEN RE-LOCATED. DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, IT HAS
CURVED
WESWARDS, UNDEGOING THE STEERING FLOW OF THE RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST.
IT
IS EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
SYSTEM IS WEAKENING UNDERGOING A WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. IT IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS. BEYOND, THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FORECAST IS
IMPORTANT.
THE RSMC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO, IE DUE TO A
REBUILDING
RIDGE IN ITS SOUTHWEST AND A WEAKENED VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO RECURVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND COULD RE-INTENSIFY.
MANY NWMP FORECAST AN EVACUATION SOUTHEASTWARDS BEYOND THE 14.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 947
WTIO30 FMEE 121214
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 32/12/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JOKWE)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/12 AT 1200 UTC :
25.8S / 40.0E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/4.0 /W 2.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 200 SO: 180 NO: 080
50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 550 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/13 00 UTC: 26.0S/39.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2008/03/13 12 UTC: 25.8S/39.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2008/03/14 00 UTC: 25.2S/38.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2008/03/14 12 UTC: 24.7S/38.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
60H: 2008/03/15 00 UTC: 24.1S/38.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
72H: 2008/03/15 12 UTC: 23.6S/37.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5+ CI=4.0-
CONVECTION HAS REBUILT OVER THE CENTER DURING THE BEGINING OF TH DAY,
MAKING A STOP IN WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED HOWEVER
TO
KEEP ON WEAKENING AS SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASE OVER THE
SYSTEM IN THE NEXT HOURS.
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARDS SLOWLY.
BEYOND,
MORE NORTHWESTWARDS DUE TO A REBUILDING RIDGE IN ITS SOUTHWEST IN
MIDDLE LEVELS.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Down but not out!!

[HURAKAN]

WWIO21 KNES 121532

A. 22S (JOKWE)

B. 12/1430Z

C. 25.9S

D. 40.4E

E. ONE/MET-7

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/AMSU/SSMI

H. REMARKS...DT OF 4.5 BASED ON OW EYE/DG RING SURROUNDED BY DG. MET IS
4.5 BASED ON SLIGHT DEVELOPMENT OVER PAST 24 HRS. PT IS 4.0 WITH FT
BASED ON CONTRAINTS.
ADDL POSITIONS: 1127Z AMSU – 25.5S 40.2E
1414Z SSMI – 25.9S 40.4E

[HURAKAN]

Great image!

[Cyclenall]

Is it still expected to go North after some time?

[HURAKAN]

Is it still expected to go North after some time?

[Squarethecircle]

It's certainly not a good thing when Mozambique gets hit by two hurricane strength TCs in the span of a few days, and bizarre that the same system is the cause.

[HURAKAN]

Earlier today.

[Squarethecircle]

Lost its eye since then, but the convection near the center is starting to increase again, and it seems to be heading due west now; recurve is starting.

[HURAKAN]

Still pretty good circulation.

[HURAKAN]

[Squarethecircle]

It's further north than it was a couple hours ago; methinks this recurve thing is dead on.