NWPAC: 台风“浣熊” STS Neoguri (0801/02W)

[senorpepr]

I'm not going to do a complete observation, but I did grab a few from in and around the Paracel Islands.

Xisha Dao reported at 18Z winds of 33KT and a 6-hour precipitation total of 1.57". At 21Z, the winds had died down to 27KT.

Sanhu Dao reported at 18Z winds of 33KT and a 6-hour precipitation total of 0.24". At 21Z, the winds had died down to 29KT.

A German container ship--"Maersk Peterhead"--was moving northeastward across the South China Sea, to the east of the Paracel Islands. At 21Z, they had reported winds of 33KT. Their location at that time was about 125mi ESE of Neoguri.

[Squarethecircle]

Good thing it ran out of steam before hitting anything - starting to fall apart.

[HURAKAN]

Odd eye!!!!!

[CrazyC83]

My guess is 90-95 kt right now, but I think it was 100 kt at 1800Z. As for the pressure, my guess is 956mb right now.

[HurricaneRobert]

Getting close to Hainan. The eye was just filled with clouds, but it looks more symmetrical. It's not winking anymore.

[senorpepr]

[Category 5]

My guess is 90-95 kt right now, but I think it was 100 kt at 1800Z. As for the pressure, my guess is 956mb right now.

Do you see something I don't? At 1800Z this was a very ragged storm with half an eyewall.

It's closing now though, it looks alot healthier.

[Category 5]

The good news is, it's about to hit a wall. It will probably peak out now or within the next few hours.

[Category 5]

It's probably already peaked actually. Convection is weakening. Notice the NE quad. 95kts is probably overestimating it at this point.

[senorpepr]

New observations... with streamlines!

[jams]

Windspeed continues to go up, we will have gale soon



Radar image from Hainan~

[CrazyC83]

Looks to be about 80 kt now based on satellite and radar.

[senorpepr]

ZCZC 612
WTPQ20 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0801 NEOGURI (0801)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 19.1N 111.3E GOOD
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 191200UTC 21.0N 111.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 201200UTC 22.8N 112.2E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
NNNN





ZCZC 608
WTPQ20 BABJ 181200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY NEOGURI 0801 (0801) INITIAL TIME 181200 UTC
00HR 19.1N 111.2E 975HPA 33M/S
30KTS 260KM
50KTS 80KM
P12HR NNW 15KM/H
P+24HR 21.2N 110.5E 990HPA 23M/S
P+48HR 22.8N 112.0E 1000HPA 13M/S=
NNNN




TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS
BULLETIN ISSUED AT 20:45 L.T. 18-APRIL-2008
HERE IS THE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE MACAU METEOROGICAL AND GEOPHYSICAL BUREAU.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN EFFECT AND THE SIGNAL NO. 3 IS HOISTED.
THIS MEANS THAT THE CENTRE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOLLOWS A PATTERN OF MOVEMENT THAT WINDS TO BE EXPERIENCED IN MSAR MAY POSSIBLY RANGE FROM 41 TO 62 KM/H AND GUSTS ABOUT 110 KM/H.

AT 20:45, (0801) TYPHOON "NEOGURI" WAS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 360 KILOMETRES SSW OF MACAU (NEAR 19.4ºN, 111.6ºE). IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE N AT AROUND 20KM/H.
THE STANDBY SIGNAL NO. 1 WILL BE REPLACED BY THE STRONG WINDS SIGNAL NO. 3 AT 20:45 L.T.


PRECAUTIONARY ANNOUNCEMENTS WITH SIGNAL NO. 3 :
LEAD SHIPS AND OTHER SAILING CRAFTS INTO SAFETY SHELTERS OR PORTS. CHECK THE SAFETY OF DOORS AND WINDOWS. CLEAR DRAINS AND RAIN COLLECTORS OF OBSTRUCTIONS. FOLLOW BULLETINS BROADCASTED BY RADIO, TELEVISION AND OTHERS ELECTRONICS COMMUNICATIONS DEVICES.





Not a whole lot of juicy observations right now. Most of the wind reports out of Hainan are <10kt. However... Haikou Meilan is reporting 040° at 27G41KT, with 5mi vis and light rainshowers.

[Chacor]

Bulletin issued at 21:45 HKT 18/Apr/2008

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the
Hong Kong Observatory.

The Strong Wind Signal, No. 3 is in force.

This means that winds with mean speeds of 41 to 62
kilometres per hour are expected.

At 10 p.m., Typhoon Neoguri was estimated to be about 440
kilometres southwest of Hong Kong (near 19.3 degrees north
111.4 degrees east) and is forecast to move north at about
14 kilometres per hour crossing the seas east of Hainan
Island towards western Guandong.

[senorpepr]

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS
BULLETIN ISSUED AT 22:00 L.T. 18-APRIL-2008
HERE IS THE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE MACAU METEOROGICAL AND GEOPHYSICAL BUREAU.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN EFFECT AND THE SIGNAL NO. 3 IS HOISTED.
THIS MEANS THAT THE CENTRE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOLLOWS A PATTERN OF MOVEMENT THAT WINDS TO BE EXPERIENCED IN MSAR MAY POSSIBLY RANGE FROM 41 TO 62 KM/H AND GUSTS ABOUT 110 KM/H.

AT 22:00, (0801) TYPHOON "NEOGURI" WAS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 350 KILOMETRES SW OF MACAU (NEAR 19.5ºN, 111.6ºE). IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE N SLOWLY.
THE STRONG WIND SIGNAL NO. 3 IS STILL HOISTED.


PRECAUTIONARY ANNOUNCEMENTS WITH SIGNAL NO. 3 :
LEAD SHIPS AND OTHER SAILING CRAFTS INTO SAFETY SHELTERS OR PORTS. CHECK THE SAFETY OF DOORS AND WINDOWS. CLEAR DRAINS AND RAIN COLLECTORS OF OBSTRUCTIONS. FOLLOW BULLETINS BROADCASTED BY RADIO, TELEVISION AND OTHERS ELECTRONICS COMMUNICATIONS DEVICES.

[wyq614]

Forecast from Dongguan City Meteorological Station:

周末期间我市受热带气旋环流及其减弱成的低槽影响，有一次明显的降水过程，风力也将逐渐加大，沿海地区风力5到6级，阵风7级。台风“浣熊”已于18日22时30分在海南省文昌市龙楼镇登陆，登陆时已减弱为强热度风暴，中心气压980百帕，中心附近最大风速30米/秒（108公里/小时），相当于11级的风力。预计，强热带风暴“浣熊”未来24小时内将以10～15公里/小时的速度向偏北方向移动，强度继续减弱，将于19日下午到夜间在吴川到台山沿海地区登陆，登陆时中心最大风力仍可达9级左右。

During the weekend, under the influence of the convergence of the tropical cyclone as well as a low-level trough that may form during its weakening, aparent rainfall process is expected in our city (Dongguan) while winds becoming stronger. Coastal area will occur 5-6 bft wind, gusting to 7 bft. Typhoon Neoguri has made its landfall in Longlou Town, Wenchang City, Hainan Province at 2230 hours Beijing Time (1430 UTC) on Apr 18. At that time, it has weakened to the stage of Severe Tropical Storm with the central pressure of 980hPa and maximum sustained winds of 30m/s (108km/h), namely, a 11 bft wind. The system is forecast to move northward at a speed 10-15km/h and keep weakening. It may make a landfall once again sometime between the afternoon and night of Apr 19 at somewhere from Wuchuan City to Taishan City (both in Guangdong Province). The maximum wind may still reach 9 bft during the second landfall.

PS: I wonder if Noeguri has really made a landfall in Hainan or no.

[HURAKAN]

Not very clear as the system continues to weaken.

[Chacor]

"Landfall" means the centre of the eye (or centre of the system) has fully crossed land. This doesn't appear to be the case.

[wyq614]

Of all the agencies, only CMA insists that Neoguri did have made a landfall in Hainan. In our bbs some users say CMA simply wants to break the record of the earliest typhoon of a year that makes landfall in Hainan. They tend to break a record without respecting the truth.

[jams]

Of all the agencies, only CMA insists that Neoguri did have made a landfall in Hainan. In our bbs some users say CMA simply wants to break the record of the earliest typhoon of a year that makes landfall in Hainan. They tend to break a record without respecting the truth.

It was widely reported by Chinese media that the storm would make landfall on Hainan, and a deputy administrator of CMA even went south to Hainan. They might not be willing to say they've made a wrong forecast...

At 15Z,
JMA 19.5 111.4
HKO 19.5 111.4
NOAA 19.6 111.4
CMA 19.7 110.9

Anyway, these are just possible reasons. Wait for VIS to discover the truth.