South Indian Ocean: Filling Depression ex.Kamba (TC 23S)

[HURAKAN]

35kts-996mb

23S is here!

[Crostorm]

23SNONAME.40kts-996mb

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070200Z FEB 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 11.9S 87.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 87.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 12.0S 86.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 12.4S 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 13.0S 83.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.9S 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 86.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 910 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 23S IS TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE STORM. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE A GENERALLY WESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE STORM
WILL INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL DECREASE AFTER THIS
TIME AND THE STORM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY MORE STEADILY.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC
AIDS THAT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS NEAR THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 070200Z FEB 08 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 070200) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 080300Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Next name in the list: Kamba

[HURAKAN]

Nice collage from Mtotec.com

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 MAR 2008 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 11:53:53 S Lon : 86:53:52 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 / 993.4mb/ 41.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.8 2.9 3.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -82.9C Cloud Region Temp : -78.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.1T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 MAR 2008 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 11:55:38 S Lon : 86:33:47 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 991.0mb/ 45.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.0 3.1 3.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -84.5C Cloud Region Temp : -82.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.1T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Squarethecircle]

Nice. This could go somewhere.

The convection is ridiculous, and I like the shape.

Does anyone have environment maps?

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

07/1900 UTC 12.8S 87.1E T3.5/3.5 23S -- South Indian Ocean

[HURAKAN]

Shrimp look disappearing as the storm intensifies.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 12.5S 87.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 87.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 12.9S 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 13.6S 84.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 14.6S 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 15.9S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 86.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 915
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTH-
WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 23S IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE A GENERALLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE STORM
WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD OUTFLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS THAT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NEAR THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. FORECAST INTENSITIES
ARE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO STRONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 080000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z AND 090300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 260
WTIO30 FMEE 080011
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/13/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13
2.A POSITION 2008/03/08 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2S / 87.4E
(TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 170 SE: 040 SO: 340 NO: 170
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/08 12 UTC: 12.9S/86.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2008/03/09 00 UTC: 13.8S/85.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2008/03/09 12 UTC: 14.9S/83.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2008/03/10 00 UTC: 16.7S/80.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2008/03/10 12 UTC: 19.1S/78.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/03/11 00 UTC: 22.5S/78.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5
STRONGER WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT LINKED TO STRONG CONVERGENCE IN THESE AREAS.
LATS MICROWAVE AQUA 1955Z IMAGERY SHOWS THAT VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS
NOW
CLEARLY WEAKENED, ALLOWING A QUICKER INTENSIFICATION.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD GLOBALLY TRACK ON THE NORTHERN THEN NORTHWESTERN
EDGE
OF A STRONG AND STATIONARY UPPER LEVER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST
SCENARIO.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Once again I will say that "Kamba" should be here very soon.

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 269
WTIO30 FMEE 090031
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/13/20072008
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13
2.A POSITION 2008/03/09 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5S / 85.0E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 36 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 350 NO: 180
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/09 12 UTC: 14.5S/82.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2008/03/10 00 UTC: 15.8S/80.9E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2008/03/10 12 UTC: 17.9S/79.4E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2008/03/11 00 UTC: 20.4S/78.8E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2008/03/11 12 UTC: 22.8S/78.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2008/03/12 00 UTC: 24.6S/79.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0-
CLOUDY PATTERN HAS ORGANIZED BUT THE SYSTEM STILL UNDERGOES AN
EASTERLY
WINDSHEAR, AND THE CENTER IS LOCATED UNDER THE ESATERN EDGE OF DEEP
CONVECTION.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD GLOBALLY TRACK ON THE NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN
EDGE
OF A STRONG AND STATIONARY UPPER LEVER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST
SCENARIO.=
NNNN

36 knots, very interesting.

[HURAKAN]

36 knts (10-min)? I think Meteo France can do better than that!!!

[HURAKAN]

By the way, when should this storm be named?

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 13.8S 84.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 84.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 15.0S 82.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.4S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.1S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.0S 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 83.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 810
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
TC 23S CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE STORM. GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STORM
HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
UNDER IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT. TC 23S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECASTS ARE CLOSE TO THEIR RESPECTIVE NUMERICAL
AND STATISTICAL MODEL CONSENSUSES. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091500Z AND 100300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//

[Chacor]

Mauritius has naming responsibility east of 55E.

[HURAKAN]

Mauritius has naming responsibility east of 55E.

I was imagining so. Thanks!



Nice outflow!