SE Indian: Tropical Cyclone Rosie (TC 28S)

[Chacor]

INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WARNING

HIGH SEAS WARNING FOR AREA 0 - 10 S, 90 - 125 E
Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 14:48 UTC 21 April 2008

SITUATION
At 12:00 UTC Tropical Depression 1004 hPa was within 90 nautical miles of 9.3 S 102.3 E moving east at 14 knots.

AREA AFFECTED
Indian Ocean southwest of Sumatra, Southwest of Sunda strait and Indian Ocean south of Java.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds reaching 30 knots expected to increase to 35 knots in the next 24 hours.
High seas may exceed Rough to Very Rough scale and rising swell.

00:00 UTC 22 April: Within 105 nautical miles of 10.0 S 103.8 E
Central pressure 1004 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 35 knots near centre.
12:00 UTC 22 April: Within 145 nautical miles of 10.7 S 105.1 E
Central pressure 992 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 35 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
Next warning will be issued by 19.00 WIB, Monday 21 April 2008

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre JAKARTA

IDJ20080
INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

EXTREME WEATHER WARNING

Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 21:06 WIB 21/04/2008

EXTREME WEATHER WARNING NUMBER 3

A CYCLONE WARNING for a Tropical Depression has continues for areas Lebak, Pandeglang, Serang, Tangerang, Bengkulu Selatan, Bengkulu Utara, Rejang Lebong, Jakarta Barat, Jakarta Selatan, Bandung, Bekasi, Bogor, Ciamis, Cianjur, Garut, Kodya Bandung, Kodya Bogor, Kodya Sukabumi, Sukabumi, Tasikmalaya, Cilacap, Kodya Bandar Lampung, Lampung Barat, Lampung Selatan, Lampung Tengah, Agam, Danau Singkarak, Kodya Bukittinggi, Kodya Padang Panjang, Kodya Padang, Kodya Sawahlunto, Kodya Solok, Lima Puluh Koto, Padang Pariaman, Pasaman, Payakumbuh, Pesisir Selatan, Sawahlunto-Sijunjung, Solok and Tanah Datar.


At 19:00 WIB Tropical Depression was estimated to be 560 kilometres southwest of Tanjung Karang and 600 kilometres southwest of Jakarta and moving east at 26 kilometres per hour stationary.

Extreme weather is expected to develop caused by this Tropical Depression

Moderate to heavy rain with strong wind is probably occur in Western and Southern Coast of Sumatera, Banten, South of Jakarta, West Java and Southern Coast of Central Java.

High wave could reach 3.0 meters or higher along western waters of West Sumatera to Southern Waters of West Java.


Details of Tropical Depression at 19:00 WIB:
. Centre located near...... 9.3 degrees south 102.3 degrees east
. Location accuracy........ within 165 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the east at 26 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 1004 hectoPascals
. Maximum wind speed....... 55 kilometres per hour

The next advice will be issued by 07.00 WIB, Sunday 21 April 2008.

This advice is available on telephone 021-6546318, 4246321 ext 377

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre JAKARTA

IDW24400
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 7
Issued at 8:50 pm WST on Monday, 21 April 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for Christmas Island.

At 8:00 pm WST a Tropical Low was estimated to be
390 kilometres west northwest of Christmas Is and
700 kilometres east northeast of Cocos Is and
moving east at 20 kilometres per hour.

The low may develop into a cyclone during Tuesday. Heavy rain and GALES with
gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop over Christmas Island later on
Tuesday as the system approaches. Large swell is likely to develop by Wednesday.

Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 9.1 degrees South 102.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 95 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east at 20 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

The Christmas Island Emergency Management Committee advise that Christmas Island
is on Blue Alert. Residents should be taking precautions.

The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am WST Tuesday 22 April.



This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

21/1430 UTC 9.1S 102.2E T2.5/2.5 95S -- South Indian Ocean

[Ed Mahmoud]

21/1430 UTC 9.1S 102.2E T2.5/2.5 95S -- South Indian Ocean

Looks a lot better than this time yesterday.

[HURAKAN]

TC 28s. Looking excellent.

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued at 11:45 pm WST on Monday, 21 April 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for Christmas Island.

At 11:00 pm WST a tropical low was estimated to be
325 kilometres west northwest of Christmas Island and
750 kilometres east northeast of Cocos Island and
moving east at 20 kilometres per hour.

The low may develop into a cyclone during Tuesday. Periods of heavy rain are
possible overnight and tomorrow. GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may
develop over Christmas Island during Tuesday as the system approaches. Large
swell is likely to develop by Wednesday.

Details of Tropical Low at 11:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 9.2 degrees South 103.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 95 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east at 20 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals

The Christmas Island Emergency Management Committee advise that Christmas Island
is on Blue Alert. Residents should be taking precautions.

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Tuesday 22 April.

This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[P.K.]

Almost in TCWC Perth's AOR now.

INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WARNING

HIGH SEAS WARNING FOR AREA 0 - 10 S, 90 - 125 E
Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 19:35 UTC 21 April 2008

SITUATION
At 18:00 UTC Tropical Depression 1004 hPa was within 100 nautical miles of 9.8 S 103.6 E moving east southeast at 14 knots.

AREA AFFECTED
Indian Ocean southwest of Sumatra, Southwest of Sunda strait and Indian Ocean south of Java.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds reaching 30 knots expected to increase to 35 knots in the next 24 hours.
High seas may exceed Rough to Very Rough scale and rising swell.

06:00 UTC 22 April: Within 110 nautical miles of 10.5 S 105.2 E
Central pressure 1004 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 35 knots near centre.
18:00 UTC 22 April: Within 150 nautical miles of 10.9 S 105.8 E
Central pressure 998 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 35 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
Next warning will be issued by 07.00 WIB, Tuesday 22 April 2008

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre JAKARTA

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210521Z APR 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 10.0S 103.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 103.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 10.6S 105.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 11.2S 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 11.9S 105.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.6S 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 10.2S 104.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 28S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IM-
AGERY AND A 211833Z TRMM 85 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAP-
PING INTO THE CENTER, WHICH IS PARTIALLY-EXPOSED AND IS DISPLACED
SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE BANDING. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE TRMM MICROWAVE 85 AND 37 GHZ IMAGES.
TC 28S HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH IMPROVED ORGAN-
IZATION WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES INCREASING TO 35 (KNES) TO 45 (PGTW)
KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF THESE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A STRONG SHEAR GRADIENT SOUTH OF 13S WHICH
SHOULD INFLUENCE THE SYSTEM LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 28S
IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY
SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STEERING RIDGE STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TRACK SOUTHWARD.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE WEAKENING
SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED BUT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 210521Z
APR 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 210530)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND 222100Z.//

[HURAKAN]

21/2030 UTC 10.2S 104.1E T3.0/3.0 28S -- South Indian Ocean

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued at 5:45 am WST on Tuesday, 22 April 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for Christmas Island.

At 5:00 am WST a tropical low was estimated to be
160 kilometres west northwest of Christmas Island and
850 kilometres east northeast of Cocos Island and
moving east southeast at 25 kilometres per hour.

The tropical low may develop into a tropical cyclone during the day with periods
of heavy rain possible. GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop
over Christmas Island during the day. Tides will be higher than expected with
large swell likely to develop later today or Wednesday.

Details of tropical low at 5:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 10.0 degrees South 104.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east southeast at 25 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 994 hectoPascals

The Christmas Island Emergency Management Committee advise that Christmas Island
is on Blue Alert. Residents should be taking precautions.

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am WST Tuesday 22 April.

This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

Looking great.

[Chacor]

Dun...dun...dunnnnn

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks around 55-60 knots with that eye forming in that special satellite.

[HURAKAN]

I agree. Lets see what Perth has to say in about 20 minutes.

[HURAKAN]

Or less!!!



Welcome Rosie!

[HURAKAN]

TPXS10 PGTW 220031

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (W OF SUMATRA)

B. 21/2330Z

C. 10.8S

D. 105.1E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS (21/2330Z)

G. IR/EIR

38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .90 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. PT AGREES. MET YIELDS AN UNREP
3.0. DBO DT.

UEHARA

[HurricaneRobert]

Did they wait to name it because it wasn't in Perth's area or did they wait because it wasn't developed enough?

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
Issued at 8:45 am WST on Tuesday, 22 April 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for Christmas Island.
At 8:00 am WST a tropical low was estimated to be
100 kilometres west of Christmas Island and
moving southeast at 24 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Rosie may cause GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour
over Christmas Island today. Heavy rain can be expected today. Tides will be
higher than expected and combined with an increasing swell may cause flooding of
low-lying areas possible.
While winds are likely to ease later today a large swell is likely to continue.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Rosie at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 10.5 degrees South 104.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 24 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 988 hectoPascals

The Christmas Island Emergency Management Committee advise that Christmas Island
is on YELLOW Alert. Residents should be taking action in preparation for a
cyclone impact.

The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm WST Tuesday 22 April.

This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[Chacor]

[HURAKAN]

If it's not at hurricane intensity, it's very close.

First visible:

[HURAKAN]

ROSIE.50kts-985mb