SE Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Durga [ TC 29S ]

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Chacor
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#21 Postby Chacor » Tue Apr 22, 2008 10:00 pm

HURAKAN wrote:The point is that the amount of tropical cyclone activity in the SE Indian Ocean doesn't warrant two areas of responsibilities compared to basins like the WPAC that has annually a large number of tropical cyclones and only has one area of resposibility. That's my point. It may work for the WMO but I don't see the point. Sorry.


I think you missed my point. There are 14 areas in the WPac, only that the JMA has overall responsibility. Taking an average of 23.33 storms a year (23 in 2005, 23 in 2006, 24 in 2007) in the WPac, that averages 1.67 in every area. In the SE IO itself, where there are five TCWCs, taking an average of 9 storms a year (it was 12 in 05/06, 5 last year and 10 so far this year), that works out to 1.8 in every area. In this case, shouldn't this area have MORE TCWCs?

(EDIT: There are 5 SEIO TCWCs, not 4)
(EDIT: Update numbers with past three seasons' activity)
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Re: SE Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Durga [ TC 29S ]

#22 Postby Chacor » Wed Apr 23, 2008 3:33 am

INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WARNING

HIGH SEAS WARNING FOR AREA 0 - 10 S, 90 - 125 E
Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 08:11 UTC 23 April 2008

SITUATION
At 06:00 UTC Tropical Cyclone DURGA 994 hPa was within 70 nautical miles of 9.2 S 95.6 E moving south east at 5 knots.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 30 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 30 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 30 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 30 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds reaching 40 knots expected to increase to 40 knots in the next 24 hours.
High seas may exceed Rough to Very Rough scale and rising swell.

18:00 UTC 23 April: Within 50 nautical miles of 9.7 S 97.6 E
Central pressure 992 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 45 knots near centre.
06:00 UTC 24 April: Within 100 nautical miles of 10.3 S 98.8 E
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 40 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
Next warning will be issued by 13:00 UTC 23 April 2008.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre JAKARTA
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#23 Postby Chacor » Wed Apr 23, 2008 3:34 am

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#24 Postby Chacor » Wed Apr 23, 2008 6:58 am

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#25 Postby Chacor » Wed Apr 23, 2008 9:01 am

INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WARNING

HIGH SEAS WARNING FOR AREA 0 - 10 S, 90 - 125 E
Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 13:51 UTC 23 April 2008

SITUATION
At 12:00 UTC Tropical Cyclone DURGA 992 hPa was within 70 nautical miles of 9.7 S 95.9 E moving south east at 6 knots.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 50 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 20 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 10 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds reaching 40 knots expected to increase to 50 knots in the next 24 hours.
High seas may exceed Rough to Very Rough scale and rising swell.

00:00 UTC 24 April: Within 130 nautical miles of 10.6 S 96.9 E
Central pressure 988 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 40 knots near centre.
12:00 UTC 24 April: Within 225 nautical miles of 11.8 S 97.6 E
Central pressure 986 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
Next warning will be issued by 19:00 UTC 23 April 2008.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre JAKARTA
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#26 Postby Chacor » Wed Apr 23, 2008 9:01 am

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Re: SE Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Durga [ TC 29S ]

#27 Postby HurricaneRobert » Wed Apr 23, 2008 11:09 am

Where can you find this list of names from Jakarta? It's kind of odd that Vamei was actually over Sumatra, but it was named by JMA. I doubt that would be different if it happened today.
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Re: SE Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Durga [ TC 29S ]

#28 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Apr 23, 2008 11:35 am

HurricaneRobert wrote:Where can you find this list of names from Jakarta? It's kind of odd that Vamei was actually over Sumatra, but it was named by JMA. I doubt that would be different if it happened today.


Don't know about the names but Jakarta only covers from the equator to 10ºS, and from 90ºE to 125ºE. In the case of Vamei, Jakarta didn't have jurisdiction even if they have been naming since 2001.
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#29 Postby KWT » Wed Apr 23, 2008 11:36 am

Interesting to see the difference in track and strength between the different agencies right now, doesn't look too bad right now though.
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Re: SE Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Durga [ TC 29S ]

#30 Postby P.K. » Wed Apr 23, 2008 2:30 pm

HurricaneRobert wrote:Where can you find this list of names from Jakarta?


They've not issued one yet.

Durga has almost reached 10S now.

INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WARNING

HIGH SEAS WARNING FOR AREA 0 - 10 S, 90 - 125 E
Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 18:59 UTC 23 April 2008

SITUATION
At 18:00 UTC Tropical Cyclone DURGA 988 hPa was within 70 nautical miles of 9.9 S 96.9 E moving south east at 10 knots.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 50 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 10 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 20 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 35 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds reaching 40 knots expected to increase to 50 knots in the next 24 hours.
High seas may exceed Rough to Very Rough scale and rising swell.

06:00 UTC 24 April: Within 85 nautical miles of 10.8 S 98.2 E
Central pressure 985 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 50 knots near centre.
18:00 UTC 24 April: Within 80 nautical miles of 12.0 S 99.3 E
Central pressure 982 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
Next warning will be issued by 01:00 UTC 24 April 2008.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre JAKARTA

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#31 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Apr 23, 2008 3:07 pm

Image

Nice picture!
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#32 Postby Chacor » Thu Apr 24, 2008 9:44 am

IDW23200
40:3:1:24:11S099E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1227UTC 24 APRIL 2008

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Durga was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude eleven decimal three south [11.3S]
longitude ninety nine decimal four east [99.4E]
Recent movement : south southeast at 8 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 992 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 10 nautical miles of the centre in northern quadrants, extending to 90
nautical miles in southern quadrants.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 35 knots near the centre easing to 30 knots by 0000 UTC 25
April.

Clockwise winds above 34 knots within 10 nautical miles of the centre in
northern quadrants extending to 90 nautical miles in southern quadrants until
0000 UTC 25 April with rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 25 April: Within 50 nautical miles of 12.8 south 99.7 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre
At 1200 UTC 25 April: Within 75 nautical miles of 14.7 south 99.5 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 24 April 2008.


WEATHER PERTH
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#33 Postby Chacor » Thu Apr 24, 2008 9:35 pm

Final technical summary issued.
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