WPAC: STS Halong (05W, PAGASA: Cosme)

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 13.5N 117.5E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 15.1N 118.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

[senorpepr]

Severe Weather Bulletin Number FOUR
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "COSME"
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Thursday, 15 May 2008 Tropical Depression "COSME" has intensified slightly for the past six hours.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 390 kms West of Calapan City
Coordinates: 13.6ºN, 117.5ºE
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 60 kph near the center

Movement: North at 07 kph

Forecast Positions / Outlook:
Friday evening: 420 kms West Norhwest of Calapan City or 250 kms West Southwest of Iba, Zambales
Saturday evening: 230 kms Northwest of Iba, Zambales
Sunday evening: 80 kms North Northwest of Laoag City


Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds)
Northern Palawan
Occidental Mindoro
Lubang Island


Tropical Depressions "COSME" and "DINDO" will enhance the southwest monsoon and bring rains over Luzon and Western Visayas. Residents in low lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautions against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Residents along the coastal areas of Luzon and Western Visayas are alerted against big waves generated by this tropical cyclone

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.

[senorpepr]

WTPN32 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/142000Z MAY 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 12.9N 117.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 117.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 14.0N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.2N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.1N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.4N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.5N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 26.1N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 33.2N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 117.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
220 NM WEST-SOUTWEST OF MANILLA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 142000Z MAY 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 142000 ). NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z,
160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW 1500) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//

NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

WTPN32 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 13.6N 117.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 117.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 14.6N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.7N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.1N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.7N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 23.5N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 31.2N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 40.6N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 117.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILLA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEAST-
WARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z,
161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04W
(MATMO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

[Chacor]

TCNA21 RJTD 160600 CCA
CCAA 16060 47644 MATMO(0803) 05251 11317 13234 230// 90620=
NAMELESS 06142 11172 14236 225// 93505=

Should be named at 07z.

[Ad Novoxium]

Don't know when it was named, but it's Halong now.

[RattleMan]

Don't know when it was named, but it's Halong now.

WTPQ21 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0804 HALONG (0804) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160600UTC 14.2N 117.2E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 170600UTC 14.9N 119.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 180600UTC 18.3N 122.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 190600UTC 23.2N 128.6E 270NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

[HURAKAN]

Looking much better.

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0804 HALONG (0804)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 14.7N 117.5E FAIR
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 17.1N 120.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 181200UTC 20.9N 124.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 191200UTC 26.4N 130.4E 270NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

[KWT]

Well looks like its starting to develop quite nicely esp on the southern side however its running quickly towards land, will be interesting to see what happens to the circulation and the system after it crosses land.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN32 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (HALONG) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 14.7N 117.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 117.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.7N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.3N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.5N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 21.0N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 28.4N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 37.0N 138.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 43.9N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 118.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TD) 05W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST
OF MANILLA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
161200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z,
170900Z AND 171500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04W (MATMO)
WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW 160900) FOR FINAL WARNING.

[senorpepr]

ZCZC 656
WTPQ21 RJTD 161500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0804 HALONG (0804)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161500UTC 14.9N 118.0E FAIR
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 171500UTC 17.4N 120.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 181200UTC 20.9N 124.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 191200UTC 26.4N 130.4E 270NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =
NNNN



ZCZC 605
WTPQ20 BABJ 161200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS HALONG 0804 (0804) INITIAL TIME 161200 UTC
00HR 14.6N 117.7E 995HPA 20M/S
30KTS 350KM
P12HR NE 10KM/H
P+24HR 16.5N 120.5E 990HPA 23M/S
P+48HR 19.3N 123.8E 988HPA 25M/S
P+72HR 24.6N 130.0E 980HPA 30M/S=
NNNN




Severe Weather Bulletin Number NINE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Storm "COSME" (HALONG)
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Friday, 16 May 2008 Tropical Storm "COSME" has maintained its strength as it continues to move towards Central and Northern Luzon area.
Location of Center: (as of 10:00 p.m.) 210 kms West Southwest of Iba, Zambales
Coordinates: 15.0ºN, 118.0ºE
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 95 kph near the center
gustiness of up to 120 kph

Movement: Northeast at 13 kph

Forecast Positions / Outlook:
Saturday evening: 150 kms North of Iba, Zambales or 60 kms North Northwest of Baguio City
Sunday evening: 330 kms Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Monday evening: 1,030 kms Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan or 300 kms East Southeast of Okinawa, Japan


Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds)
Zambales
Tarlac
Pangasinan
La Union

Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds)
Bataan
Bulacan
Pampanga
Nueva Ecija
Nueva Vizcaya
Ifugao
Benguet
Kalinga
Mt. Province
Abra
Ilocos Sur
Cavite
Batangas
Laguna
Rizal
Lubang Island
Metro Manila

Tropical Storms "COSME" will continue to enhance the southwest monsoon and bring rains over Southern Luzon and Western Visayas. Residents in low lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautions against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Residents along the coastal areas of Luzon and Western Visayas are alerted against big waves generated by these tropical cyclone.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 A.M. tomorrow.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I hope it doesn't reach typhoon strength.

I've had a beer or two in Zambales and Pampanga provinces.

[HURAKAN]

Great outflow. 50 knots says NRL.

[HURAKAN]

TPPN11 PGTW 161807

A. TROPICAL STORM 05W (HALONG)

B. 16/1730Z

C. 15.4N

D. 117.9E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS (16/1730Z)

G. IR/EIR

38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .60 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS A 3.0 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

SCANLIN

[KWT]

This system is starting to get a really good structure presently, nice banding emerging with some deep convection popping near the center. Looks like its heading for land which will halt development and this system could well come inland at 60-65kts IMO...

[HURAKAN]

WTPN32 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (HALONG) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 15.2N 118.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 118.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.6N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.1N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.7N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 21.9N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 29.7N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 37 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 42.2N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 118.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MANILLA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE OVERAL FORECAST
PHILSOPHY IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. HOWEVER,
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS NOW EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY OR JUST
AFTER TAU 48 AND BE COMPLETE BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z,
170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.

[senorpepr]

WTPQ21 RJTD 162100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0804 HALONG (0804)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 162100UTC 15.4N 118.2E FAIR
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 172100UTC 18.6N 122.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 181800UTC 22.3N 126.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 191800UTC 30.1N 133.7E 270NM 70%
MOVE NE 26KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

[HURAKAN]

Looking better by the minute.