Bay of Bengal: Invest 96B

[HURAKAN]

13/1430 UTC 16.5N 95.7E OVERLAND 96B -- Bay of Bengal

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.7N
97.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 96.0E, APPROXIMATELY 15NM SOUTHWEST
OF YANGON, MYANMAR. OBSERVATIONS FROM YANGON AS OF 131300Z, SUPPORT
A 25 TO 30 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH SEA LEVEL PRESSURES NEAR 1001 MB (1
MB PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS) AND WINDS 10 KNOTS SUS-
TAINED GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. A PARTIAL 130301Z
ASCAT IMAGE ALSO INDICATES STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM AND EASTERLIES TO THE NORTH, FURTHER PROOF OF CYCLONIC TURN-
ING. A 121210Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC
TURNING AS WELL WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY LIES UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR JUST SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH FAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
THOUGH THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND, MINIMAL DEGRADATION OF
THE LOW LEVEL IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LOW LYING TOPOGRAPHY AND FAIRLY
QUICK TRANSIT OVER THE YANGON DELTA REGION AND REEMERGENCE INTO THE
BAY OF BENGAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[KWT]

well its going over an area that doesn't really need this sort of rainfall. Still it will be interesting to see how the system does once its back over the hot waters...it's like Nargis in reverse in some respects!

[RattleMan]

TCFA:

617
WTIO21 PGTW 132030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.5N 96.1E TO 19.4N 92.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 131800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.7N 95.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 121210Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING
OF CONVECTION AT THE WESTERN END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. HOWEVER,
MORE RECENTLY, CONVECTION HAS WANED SOMEWHAT IN RESPONSE TO LAND
INTERACTION. THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS CURRENTLY TRANSITING
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YANGON DELTA REGION OF MYANMAR.
OBSERVATIONS FROM YANGON AS OF 131300Z, SUPPORT A 25 TO 30 KNOT
CIRCULATION WITH SEA LEVEL PRESSURES NEAR 1000 MB (3 MB PRESSURE
FALLS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS) AND SUSTAINED WINDS AT 10 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. A PARTIAL 130301Z ASCAT
IMAGE ALSO INDICATES STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CENTER WITH SUSTAINED EASTERLIES TO THE NORTH, FURTHER PROOF OF
CYCLONIC TURNING. THE CENTER CURRENTLY LIES UNDER LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR JUST SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH FAVOR-
ABLE SOUTHWESTERLY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THOUGH THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY OVER LAND, MINIMAL DEGRADATION OF THE LOW LEVEL IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LOW LYING TOPOGRAPHY AND FAIRLY QUICK TRANSIT
OVER THE LOW-LYING COASTAL REGION OF SOUTHERN MYANMAR. EMERGENCE
INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD WITH THE ONLY LIMITATION BEING
TEMPORARY LAND INTERACTION.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 142030Z.//

[HURAKAN]

Looks pretty well-organized.

[RL3AO]

Watch, it will hit Bangladesh as a strong cyclone.

[KWT]

Yeah I wouldn't be all that surprised, indeed I think this could well be a TD as soon as it hits the waters given its current sturcture, could well develop into a proper tropical cyclone pretty quickly I fear, just hope Nargis has taken some of the energy out of the waters...I dare say it han't done it enough...

[RL3AO]

Nargis left a very strong cold wake, but it is SE of where this area is heading.

TCHP


SST

[StormspinnerD2]

This system is very compact, so it could be difficult to track. The models look to be having trouble with it.

[HURAKAN]

[Ad Novoxium]

Does anyone notice how puny the size of the consolidated shower activity is? It's the size of the Irrawaddy region, but little more. It vaguely brings back memories of the 2000 Hong Kong depression.

[Sanibel]

The area is juiced to produce another one so soon in the same place.

[salmon123]

HMM... HI IAM FROM PAKISTAN CAN ANY ONE SENIOR PERSON LIKE HURAKAN WATCHING HURRICANES AND CYCLONES FROM SOME TIME. PLZ TELL ME WHICH MONTH ANY LOW PRESHER AREA MOVE TOWARDS EASTWARD AND TOWARDS WEST NORTWESTWORD ? PLZ AND IS THERE ANY POSSIBILITY 96B MOVE TOWARDS ARABIAN SEA?

[Derek Ortt]

it looks to be a little too far north to get into the Arabian Sea

However, it is also too far north to move over the waters cooled by Nargis

[CrazyC83]

Cyclone or no cyclone, any tropical rains there is terrible news considering the devastation.

[Derek Ortt]

rain is very good news.

IT GIVES THEM SOMEWHAT CLEAN DRINKING WATER

[KWT]

I've just noticed that its got a very small area of convection with it, I hope that doesn't dmean it could develop very rapidly, even a mod TS type system with lots of rainfall can cause real issues in this part of the world...

[senorpepr]

WTIO21 PGTW 141730
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION //
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/132021Z MAY 08//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 132030)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS:
THIS CANCELS REF A. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.7N 95.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 94.4E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
NORTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
FLARING DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT. THE 141320Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A POORLY DEFINED LLCC. RECENT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER INDICATED SLP
OF 1002 MB AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COAST AND IS FORE-
CAST TO CONTINUE INTERACTING WITH THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGE,
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO HINDER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO THE
WEAKENED LLCC AND LAND INTERACTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.//
NNNN

[salmon123]

well thanks to Derek Ortt

[RattleMan]

Up to 1.5/1.5 from earlier today:

14/2030 UTC 18.4N 93.4E T1.5/1.5 96B -- Bay of Bengal
14/1430 UTC 17.8N 94.0E T1.0/1.0 96B -- Bay of Bengal