Arabian Sea: Depression (99A Invest)

[salmon123]

WWIO20 KNES 050352

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99A)

B. 05/0230Z

C. 16.9N

D. 65.7E

E. THREE/MET-7

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS WELL DEPICTED IN ANIMATED VIS/IR IMAGERY AS
WELL AS RECENT SSMI AND TRMM MICROWAVE PASSES. PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC
IS ON EASTERN EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION. SYSTEM EXHIBITS A SHEAR PATTERN
BUT THIS WOULD GIVE AN UNREALISTICALLY HIGH DT=3.0. USING CURVED BAND
PATTERN ONLY GIVES 2 TENTHS BANDING FOR DT=1.5 WHICH MATCHES PT...RUMINSKI



YESTERDAY'S LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA CONCENTRATED INTO A DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF TODAY, THE 5TH JUNE 2008 NEAR LAT.15.5 O N AND LONG 66.0 O E ABOUT 800 KM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI ( 43003 ). THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION INITIALLY.

IMD

BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LAT 9.0º N AND 18.5º N AND LONG. 55.5º E AND 66.0 º E.

[HURAKAN]

[badkhan]

It seems to be heading this way.

[salmon123]

well HURAKAN , what do u think where can this move ? possible more intensifying ?

[HURAKAN]

well HURAKAN , what do u think where can this move ? possible more intensifying ?

It's moving toward an area of lower windshear which should allow the system to further develop and apparently the JTWC agrees by placing the TCFA.

[salmon123]

well thanks for your experienced comments

[HURAKAN]

well thanks for your experienced comments

Still, the system seems to have been affected by windshear and looks loopsided to the right. Moreover, there's dry air over the northern part of the Arabian Sea, which is not favorable for development. Therefore, you shouldn't a strong system when it makes landfall.

[Chacor]

There's always going to be dry air over the northern Arabian Sea, for what it's worth, due to the deserts. We saw with Gonu last year that it doesn't always affect the storm.

[Chacor]

As of 0900:

ARB 01/2008/02 DATED: 05 June, 2008

Sub: Depression over eastcentral and adjoining westcentral Arabian Sea.

Morning’s depression over eastcentral Arabian Sea moved northwestwards and lay centred at 1430 hours IST of today, the 5th June 2008 over eastcentral and adjoining westcentral Arabian Sea near lat. 17.00 N and Long 65.00 E about 850 km west-southwest of Mumbai. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction.

Under its influence, the southwest monsoon current has strengthened and strong surface winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph are likely along and off Konkan & Goa, Karnataka & Kerala coasts and near Lakshadweep area during next 24 hours. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

[HurricaneRobert]

Another heart-shaped storm. It reminds me of Nargis.

[KWT]

Yeah there is some shear which is displacing the convection a little bit on the southern side but it has a good shape still and there is strong convection.

as others have said whilst the dry air does tend to reduce the risk of a powerful system it shouldn't stop it slowly strengthening.

[P.K.]

DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 05-06-2008


Tropical weather outlook for north Indian ocean (The bay of Bengal and Arabian sea) valid for next 24 hours issued at 1500 utc OF 05 JUNE , 2008 based on 1200 UTC of 05 JUNE 2008 (.)

THE DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION

AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY THE 5TH JUNE 2008 OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL

ARABIAN SEA NEAR LAT. 18.00 N AND LONG 64.50 E, ABOUT 900 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI (43003), 850 KM

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI (41780), PAKISTAN AND 750 KM SOUTHEAST OF SUR (41268), OMAN.

THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25-30 KTS. THE LOWEST MEAN SEA

LEVEL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED TO BE 996 HPA.



SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.



RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF SYSTEM CENTRE.

BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER the ARABIAN SEA

BETWEEN LAT. 13.00 N to 20.00 N AND LONG. 56.00 E to 64.00 E.



AVAILABLE BUOY, SHIP AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRONG LOW LEVEL WESTERLY

FLOW ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. STRONG WESTWARD DIFLUENCE AT THE UPPER

TROPOSPHERE IS HELPING DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE SYSTEM LIES IN A REGION

OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

THE WIND SHEAR TENDENCY SHOWS INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR IN PAST 24 HOURS. DUE TO ITS CONTINUOUS

NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT, THE SYSTEM HAS ENTRED INTO A REGION OF COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE.

CONSIDERING THE ABOVE, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYTEM IS NOT LIKELY.

[badkhan]

Is it going to be one of those slow moving ones like Nargis?

[HURAKAN]

TCFA Reissued:

[StormspinnerD2]

Is it going to be one of those slow moving ones like Nargis?

It has been moving at a fairly decent pace for the past few days, so it appears steering currents are not weak in this area like they were with Nargis.

[HURAKAN]

WTIO21 PGTW 051930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050121Z JUN 08//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 050130)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.0N 63.9E TO 22.3N 60.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 051800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.1N 63.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4N
65.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 63.7E, APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF
A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 051750Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASS. THIS LLCC HAS PROGRESSED WESTWARD OUT-
SIDE OF THE PREVIOUSLY-FORECASTED FORMATION AREA, NECESSITATING
THIS REISSUANCE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. THE
DISTURBANCE LIES IN A REGION OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
HOWEVER, VERTICAL SHEAR MAY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS POLEWARD TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS. STRONG
WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO FUEL WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. THIS CONVEC-
TION IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE
PRESENCE OF SUSTAINED SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. BASED ON GOOD LOW LEVEL ORGANIZA-
TION, AND WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINING AS THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 061930Z.//

[StormspinnerD2]

Starting to look a little better.

[badkhan]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK


DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 06-06-2008



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 06 JUNE , 2008 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 06 JUNE 2008 (.)

THE DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY THE 6TH JUNE 2008 OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHWEST ARABIAN SEA NEAR LAT. 19.50 N AND LONG 62.00 E, ABOUT 1150 KM WEST OF MUMBAI (43003), 700 KM SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI (41780), PAKISTAN AND 450 KM SOUTHEAST OF SUR (41268), OMAN. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS OMAN COAST BETWEEN LATITUDE 20.50 N AND 22.50 N BY TOMORROW, THE 7TH JUNE 2008 BETWEEN 0300 AND 0600 UTC.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25-30 KTS. THE LOWEST MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED TO BE 995 HPA.

SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHEARED CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF SYSTEM CENTRE. BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER THE ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LAT. 15.00N TO 20.50 N AND WEST OF LONG. 63.00 E.

AVIALABLE BUOY, SHIP AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRONG LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. STRONG WESTWARD DIFLUENCE AT THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE IS HELPING DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE SYSTEM LIES IN A REGION OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNNING ROUGHLY ALONG 21.00 N.

Its looking really weak right now.

[ugaap]

IMD is not saying anything much right now. Still has quite a way.

Chacor you should know better. IMD won't say anything until it starts forming an eye.

For a change IMD is one up this time

Best status NRL: 30kts 1000 mb
Best status RSMC: 25-30 kts 995 hPa

[salmon123]

well looks like it is not important now. well in my info depression usually moves in june towards nort-eastward what happen to this ?


WWIO20 KNES 060930

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99A)

B. 06/0830Z

C. 19.8N

D. 62.2E

E. THREE/MET-7

F. T1.5/2.5/W1.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI/SSMIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...LLCC HAS EMERGED AND BECOME MORE DISCERNABLE IN RECENT VIS
IMAGERY AND CORRELATES WELL WITH RECENT MICROWAVE FIXES. CONVECTION IS
PULSING WITH PREVIOUS DEEP CONVECTION DECAYING AND NEW CONVECTION NOW
DEVELOPING. DURING THIS TRANSITION PHASE SYSTEM HAS MUCH LESS ORGANIZED
APPEARANCE WITH DISCREET AREAS OF CONVECTION...RUMINSKI