ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I am quite surprised. We now have the possibility of 2 cape verde systems
forming in July- Bertha already and now this invest.

What doesn't surprise me is the fact that this area could develop. It has
very well focused intense convection minimal shear and favorable
conditions. It is very large and is quite packed- this could very well
be a storm that nears the Carribean Islands- time will tell, but based
on the data I've seen, this looks like it could become a tropical
storm at the very least.

[Chacor]

AL, 94, 2008071312, , BEST, 0, 89N, 372W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,

[canetracker]

Above models show South America is likely target. Sure they will flip flop.

[Gustywind]

Yep Cycloneye it 's awfully low in lattitude , hope nothing from this, but we should watch it carefully during the next couple of days.... as usual . Seems that a twave will bring wet wetter conditions within the next 48h , busy week ahead for the East and N/E Carib should it verifies too.

[DESTRUCTION5]

At least today we have a focal point unlike yesterday..

[Gustywind]

Busy active and very suspicious is an euphemism given San Juan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
624 AM AST SUN JUL 13 2008

.DISCUSSION...IF TRENDS CONTINUE...IT APPEARS THAT AN INTERESTING
AND RATHER ACTIVE NEXT 7 DAYS MAY BE AHEAD FOR THE LOCAL REGION.
GIVEN SOME CHANGES IN MODEL GUIDANCE THIS MORNING...TRIED TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY IN GRIDS AND FORECASTS AGAIN...AND MADE ONLY
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR TODAY...BUT STILL WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR
SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A BAND OF MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
MONDAY AND SHOULD COINCIDE WITH DECENT HEATING...SO A LITTLE MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

BRIEF DRYING MAY OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT/VERY EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE
THE MOISTURE FROM THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE SPREADS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS DURING TUESDAY. IT IS HERE WHERE THE GFS MODEL HAS
CHANGED ITS SOLUTION...KEEPING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE JUST SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND MOVING THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN A
BIT FASTER THAN BEFORE. STILL BELIEVE THAT FA WILL RECEIVE A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
AND GUSTY WINDS AS THIS FEATURE PASSES BY...BUT PERHAPS NOT AS
ACTIVE AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. DRIER WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED
BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE PLOT THICKENS AGAIN...AS GFS NOW BRINGS
ANOTHER PERTURBATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. TAKING A LOOK AT SATELLITE DATA AND ANALYSES AND
COMPARING THEM TO MODEL DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHERN VORTEX
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 37 WEST EARLY THIS MORNING OR A SEPARATE
PERTURBATION ALTOGETHER...WILL BE FORCED OUT AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN
VORTEX OF THIS WAVE...WHICH WILL LAG BEHIND ALONG THE ITCZ. THIS
MORE NORTHERN FEATURE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS...AND THEN AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AGAIN ENCOMPASSING THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

LOOKING AHEAD...WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN VORTEX OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 37
WEST...AS MOST GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE
DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED SURFACE SYSTEM AND HEADING IN THE GENERAL
DIRECTION OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LATE IN THIS UPCOMING WEEK OR
OVER THE WEEKEND. WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY ANYTHING ELSE OTHER THAN IT
IS WORTH WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY DURING THE 18Z-22Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT EAST NORTHEAST OR EAST WINDS OF 11 TO
23 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 7 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGHEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DUE TO THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE.

&&
Waouw looks like a forecast of September but we're only in mid July, and that's not a cartoon ....

[Emmett_Brown]

I take back my previous comment about the basin sleeping for another 2 weeks. This area looks very favorable for development. Some really mean storms have originated around this region, Hugo and Ivan were from this neighborhood if memory serves.

The Bams show a crash into SA, but this shouldnt happen if the storm is fairly well stacked. I think this is a low rider though, and the southern windwards need to watch closely.

After that, it's anyone's guess. My very early guess (and it is just a wild guess) is the Yucatan, into the BOC, and into Mexico.

[HURAKAN]

I think first we need a storm to develop to guess where it will go. Models do very poorly when they don't have a definite center of circulation.

[Emmett_Brown]

I think we are 36 hours away from TD status. My thought is by noon Tuesday. Right now the wave has an "S" shape, so it is still pretty loose.

[GeneratorPower]

Boo-yah! Go baby go. I'm kinda surprised they pulled the trigger on two areas at once.

[GeneratorPower]

I take back my previous comment about the basin sleeping for another 2 weeks. This area looks very favorable for development.

Oh that was funny. Yeah, it's amazing how quickly things spring to life. That's part of the interest.

[HouTXmetro]

IF this were to develop and affect CONUS in the future, what is the earliest we could expect impact?

[canegrl04]

Intial forecast landfalls are usually highly inaccurate. If it become Cristobol,its more likely to make landfall anywhere from the tip of Texas to the East coast

[KatDaddy]

Gotta give Joe B credit if this develops. He has talking about this wave developing and being much more westward threat. We shall see. The NW GOM does not want anything to do with Invest 94. Rita was more than enough for the next 20 years.

[HURAKAN]

We have been talking about possible development for a long time because of the persistance of the models and the fact that this was going to track further south than Bertha. What credit to JB?

[Derek Ortt]

we've also been calling for development

JB did not make any extraordinary forecast with this wave

[jlauderdal]

We have been talking about possible development for a long time because of the persistance of the models and the fact that this was going to track further south than Bertha. What credit to JB?

he gets the same credit as everyone else that saw this coming, what that credit is actually worth is open for interpretation

[HURAKAN]

We have been talking about possible development for a long time because of the persistance of the models and the fact that this was going to track further south than Bertha. What credit to JB?

he gets the same credit as everyone else that saw this coming, what that credit is actually worth is open for interpretation

The credit to believe in development when computer models agree. What I was referring was the fact that he didn't exclusively saw it coming, we all did for a long time.

[Category 5]

Gotta give Joe B credit if this develops. He has talking about this wave developing and being much more westward threat. We shall see. The NW GOM does not want anything to do with Invest 94. Rita was more than enough for the next 20 years.

He can't get credit yet, it didn't obliterate NYC

[jlauderdal]

We have been talking about possible development for a long time because of the persistance of the models and the fact that this was going to track further south than Bertha. What credit to JB?

he gets the same credit as everyone else that saw this coming, what that credit is actually worth is open for interpretation

The credit to believe in development when computer models agree. What I was referring was the fact that he didn't exclusively saw it coming, we all did for a long time.

ok, so everyone gets the same credit no extra credit for him or anyone else. good work JB and everybody else that saw it. now lets see who can nail a landfall point say within 150 miles at 5 days out, that would deserve extra credit in my opinion.