ATL: Invest 97L in Central Atlantic

DESTRUCTION5 · #21 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Tue Jul 22, 2008 8:42 am

HURAKAN wrote:Danny in 2003 was a very northern system that was not able to organize until it was already in the subtropics. 97L may have the same destiny.

All the Globals tak this a on a Westward ride for a while..

#22 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jul 22, 2008 8:43 am

These models?

#23 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 22, 2008 8:43 am

The subtropical waters are above average in the anomalies.If it moves there it can develop.

KWT · #24 Postby **KWT** » Tue Jul 22, 2008 8:48 am

I think if it can make it to 40W without gaining much latitude and not decaying totally then its got a fair chance, remember Bertha didn't really take off till further west.

x-y-no · #25 Postby **x-y-no** » Tue Jul 22, 2008 8:52 am

As far north as this is already, it's pretty hard to imagine it making it all the way across without catching a weakness along the way and going fishing ...

DESTRUCTION5 · #26 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Tue Jul 22, 2008 8:53 am

x-y-no wrote:As far north as this is already, it's pretty hard to imagine it making it all the way across without catching a weakness along the way and going fishing ...

Agree...Just not ready to call it Danny II yet..

funster · #27 Postby **funster** » Tue Jul 22, 2008 8:54 am

x-y-no wrote:As far north as this is already, it's pretty hard to imagine it making it all the way across without catching a weakness along the way and going fishing ...

Yes, seems like it will probably be a fish if it forms.

#28 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jul 22, 2008 8:55 am

KWT · #29 Postby **KWT** » Tue Jul 22, 2008 9:01 am

Indeed this is likely to be a recurving system the main uncertainty is just how far west it will get. Doesn't look too bad right now though!

bob rulz · #30 Postby **bob rulz** » Tue Jul 22, 2008 9:28 am

Does this still have a chance to drop to the southwest soon or is that pretty much out of the question now?

Emmett_Brown · #31 Postby **Emmett_Brown** » Tue Jul 22, 2008 9:40 am

48 hour GFS seems to take it in a W/SW direction:

Still doesnt preclude an early recurve of course

#32 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 22, 2008 9:58 am

That high looks strong.Lets see how far west it goes before it recurves.

#33 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Jul 22, 2008 10:43 am

Yeah I wouldn't assume it is going to recurve yet -- that high is very strong and it may even go WSW for a while across the Atlantic.

#34 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Jul 22, 2008 10:44 am

Cryomaniac wrote:To comment on something from the other thread, why the hell would Dolly stop this being named? Come on, the NHC aren't going to not name something just because there is another storm.

Agreed I really question the logic of those people who would even think to postulate this. :roll:

Clearly they are reading way too much into things

Steve H. · #35 Postby **Steve H.** » Tue Jul 22, 2008 10:51 am

Yeah, I think we're going to need to be really patient with this one. This time of the year starts to make me nervous, since ridging can really become stronger in the mid-summer. We've got a long time to watch it. An early exit stage right would be fine with me though.

KWT · #36 Postby **KWT** » Tue Jul 22, 2008 10:51 am

The high is strong and it may well move WSW for a little while but even then odds are very high that it will find a weakness in the high somewhere along the line IF it does develop, the main issue is how quickly does this develop from here on.

Chacor · #37 Postby **Chacor** » Tue Jul 22, 2008 10:52 am

AL, 97, 2008072212, , BEST, 0, 164N, 202W, 20, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 180, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,

#38 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Jul 22, 2008 10:55 am

KWT wrote:The high is strong and it may well move WSW for a little while but even then odds are very high that it will find a weakness in the high somewhere along the line IF it does develop, the main issue is how quickly does this develop from here on.

The odds are always higher of a CV system recurving than not, that's a fact. But there are several examples of systems that have made it all the way across around where 97L is heading especially later August and into September. By no means can we simply associate its lattitude with a recurve without careful attention to the synoptic setup.

jabman98 · #39 Postby **jabman98** » Tue Jul 22, 2008 11:15 am

Does the fact that 94L/Dolly made is across the Atlantic and into the GOM mean that conditions are somehow different this season? And that such a thing happening again are more likely? Or was that more due to 94L/Dolly coming off the African coast at a different latitude and/or conditions specific to her at that time?

I think this one will decide to go fishing. Hope anyway. It's potentially a strong one.

#40 Postby **fci** » Tue Jul 22, 2008 11:38 am

funster wrote:
x-y-no wrote:As far north as this is already, it's pretty hard to imagine it making it all the way across without catching a weakness along the way and going fishing ...

Yes, seems like it will probably be a fish if it forms.

Agree.
It would be a TOTAL SHOCK if this could make it across when starting so far north.

ATL: Invest 97L in Central Atlantic

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