ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Gustywind]

Hey Cycloneye, hope this feature will race quickly wnw today or at least tommorow if not... it could pose maybe troubles for us in the Leewards and you in PR during the next 4-5days ( hope i'm wrong, should it verifies first). Sat pics presentation is very seductive; let's see what really happens with this nice system...

[HURAKAN]

Residents of the Lesser Antilles need to keep an eye on this system.

[Derek Ortt]

floater added at http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html

labeled as invest 10

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Any one know what the MJO is doing? It should either be back in the Atlantic or coming back soon at least.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks pretty healthy and the Islands need to watch this one closely.

[gatorcane]

Looks like maybe a similar track for the Leewards as 92L (Fay) but maybe a shade north. After that there is some idea from the models (GFS) of a building Western Atlantic ridge once the trough pulls out that lifts Fay to the north....but its far out still

I checked the calendar and sure enough things are really ramping up.....as expected.

[gatorcane]

Here is a good place to find Derek Ortt's imagery, nonJAVA based for tracking 94L and Fay. 94L is invest 10 on this page. Enjoy:

http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html

[Stratosphere747]

Here is a good place to find Derek Ortt's imagery, nonJAVA based for tracking 94L and Fay. 94L is invest 10 on this page. Enjoy:

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... latest.gif

Need to edit your post.

You're posting a single image of Fay in the 94 invest thread.

[gatorcane]

yes made correction here is the link:
http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html

[cheezyWXguy]

Wow, this looks pretty good. Obvious rotation. Maybe something at the surface developing within the next 1-2 days. I think this has a great shot at development. GFS last night wanted to take it on a frances-type track and hit eastern fla in about 10 days I believe, I havent seen the latest run, but that type of track seems reasonable based on the strength and position of the ridge and the steering currents. Btw, what is causing that shear at the end of the SHIPS run? TUTT?

[Blown Away]

Is this the disturbance the GFS had moving through SFL in like 8 days?

[gatorcane]

Yes

[Gustywind]

Residents of the Lesser Antilles need to keep an eye on this system.

Tkanks Hurakan i tkink that too, i don't like the steering to close for comfort for the moment!

[stormchazer]

Though TS Fay is obviously of concern now, 94L may be a bigger player down the road. Models are hinting that Fay may get blocked and pushed back by a strong High. That same High could make a developed 94L a problem for the islands.

Of course, nothing may happen if 94L does not develop.

[CrazyC83]

Wouldn't those steering currents result in a fish though?

[Gustywind]

Though TS Fay is obviously of concern now, 94L may be a bigger player down the road. Models are hinting that Fay may get blocked and pushed back by a strong High. That same High could make a developed 94L a problem for the islands.

Of course, nothing may happen if 94L does not develop.

waouw hope that this High your're speaking... will be eventually weak or will be erode by other thing, not good news if this trend is confirmed... , but we're a little far away, let's appreciate the fair weather during the end of this summer Holidays here in the islands . Whereas we should begin to monitor this feature in case of, as usual

[chris_fit]

I clicked on this thread and was prepared to see a random mess.. however this thing looks pretty good! Very small, but very organized. Like a classic system forming!

[HURAKAN]

[cheezyWXguy]

wow looks great. I bet a llc will develop in less than 2 days if this continues to organize so quickly.

[stormchazer]

Wouldn't those steering currents result in a fish though?

If there is a weakness between the Azores and Bermuda High sure. Looking at TAFB had her placed on the surface map, that did not seem the case. It even shows Fay over GA. A lot can happen sure, just seems that would make sense but others no much better.