South Indian Ocean: TROPICAL CYCLONE GULA (TC 14S)

[Crostorm]

[Chacor]

Upgraded to TD.

WTIO30 FMEE 270609

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/9/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9

2.A POSITION 2008/01/27 AT 0600 UTC :
12.9S / 62.5E
(TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/27 18 UTC: 14.0S/61.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
24H: 2008/01/28 06 UTC: 14.6S/61.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2008/01/28 18 UTC: 15.1S/60.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/01/29 06 UTC: 15.8S/60.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/01/29 18 UTC: 16.7S/59.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/01/30 06 UTC: 17.6S/58.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.5

POSITION HAS BEEN MADE WITH PERSISTENCE. IT MAY NEED TO BE RELOCALIZE
LATER TODAY.

SYSTEME IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARDS A MID LAT TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF
25S AND ALONG 57E. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE TROUGH SHOULD SLIDE AWAY
AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE STEERED ON A MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK AS IT
WILL BE ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER, THIS
MOTION SHOU
LD BE AT A LOWER SPEED AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE UNDER THE OPPOSITE INFLUENCE
OF A SOUTHWESTERN FLOW GENERATED BY A MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE DEVELOPPING
NORTHWESTWARD.

AS THIS LOWER MOTION IS WELL SEEN BY MOST OF NWP MODELS, THERE IS SOME
DISPERSION ON HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM WILL RECURV ITS TRACK ...UKMO AND
ECMWF HAVE THE MOST DIFFRENT SOLUTIONS. UKMO ALMOST TRACK THE SYSTEM
WESTWARDS AND ECMWF MORE SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS. PRESENT FORECAST IS CLOSER
TO THE ECMWF SOLU
TION AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOLUTIONS PROVIDED BY US MODELS
(AVNO,GFDL).

EASTERLY SHEAR IS DECREASING, SO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST.

[Chacor]

[Coredesat]

This is Tropical Depression 09R now, so the thread title should be updated.

WTIO20 FMEE 270610
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 27/01/2008
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/09 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 27/01/2008 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 997 HPA
POSITION: 12.9S / 62.5E
(TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, MAINLY
IN
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE
CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2008/01/27 AT 18 UTC:
14.0S / 61.9E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
24H, VALID 2008/01/28 AT 06 UTC:
14.6S / 61.3E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
SYSTEM ORGANIZES SLOWLY ...
IT SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS TODAY THEN
SOUTHWESTWARDS
ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. IT
SHOULD
MOVE AT A SLOWER SPEED BY THAT TIME. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST.=

[Chacor]

Now a Moderate Tropical Storm. Still unnamed from Mauritius.

WTIO30 FMEE 271221

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/9/20072008
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9

2.A POSITION 2008/01/27 AT 1200 UTC :
13.7S / 62.5E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/28 00 UTC: 14.4S/62.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
24H: 2008/01/28 12 UTC: 14.9S/61.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2008/01/29 00 UTC: 15.2S/61.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/01/29 12 UTC: 15.5S/60.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/01/30 00 UTC: 16.1S/59.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/01/30 12 UTC: 17.6S/58.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.5+

SYSTEME IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARDS A MID LAT TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH.
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE TROUGH SHOULD SLIDE AWAY AND THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE STEERED ON A MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK AS IT WILL BE ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER, THIS MOTION
SHOULD BE AT A L
OWER SPEED AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE UNDER THE OPPOSITE INFLUENCE OF A
SOUTHWESTERN FLOW GENERATED BY A MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE DEVELOPPING
NORTHWESTWARD.

AS THIS LOWER MOTION IS WELL SEEN BY MOST OF NWP MODELS, THERE IS SOME
DISPERSION ON HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM WILL RECURV ITS TRACK DEPENDING ON
DEGRE OF REBUILT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
UP TO 36 TO 48 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARDS IN FRONT OF A TROUGH IN
THE SOUTH-WEST.

EASTERLY SHEAR IS DECREASING, SO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST.

[P.K.]

The corrected advisory now has this named.

WTIO30 FMEE 271259 CCA
*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/9/20072008
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GULA)

2.A POSITION 2008/01/27 AT 1200 UTC :
13.7S / 62.5E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/28 00 UTC: 14.4S/62.3E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2008/01/28 12 UTC: 14.9S/61.9E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2008/01/29 00 UTC: 15.2S/61.4E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/01/29 12 UTC: 15.5S/60.7E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/01/30 00 UTC: 16.1S/59.7E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/01/30 12 UTC: 17.6S/58.8E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CORRECTIF FOR NAME
T AND CI=2.5+

SYSTEME IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARDS A MID LAT TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH.
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE TROUGH SHOULD SLIDE AWAY AND THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE STEERED ON A MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK AS IT WILL BE ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER, THIS MOTION
SHOULD BE AT A L
OWER SPEED AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE UNDER THE OPPOSITE INFLUENCE OF A
SOUTHWESTERN FLOW GENERATED BY A MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE DEVELOPPING
NORTHWESTWARD.

AS THIS LOWER MOTION IS WELL SEEN BY MOST OF NWP MODELS, THERE IS SOME
DISPERSION ON HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM WILL RECURV ITS TRACK DEPENDING ON
DEGRE OF REBUILT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
UP TO 36 TO 48 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARDS IN FRONT OF A TROUGH IN
THE SOUTH-WEST.

EASTERLY SHEAR IS DECREASING, SO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST.

[Crostorm]

[KWT]

Not a bad looking system though like Fame before it seems a fairly compact system with a fairly small convective coverage, some of which is fairly deep in the SE section of the system. SST's are nice and high in this area so if he shear does ease of another fairly decent system has the chance to develop as the outlook shows.

[Chacor]

Direct hit on Réunion coming.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 280049

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/9/20072008
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GULA)

2.A POSITION 2008/01/28 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9S / 61.7E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/28 12 UTC: 15.2S/61.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
24H: 2008/01/29 00 UTC: 15.3S/60.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2008/01/29 12 UTC: 15.6S/59.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/01/30 00 UTC: 16.6S/58.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/01/30 12 UTC: 18.4S/57.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2008/01/31 00 UTC: 20.3S/56.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.5+
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDE AWAY AND SYSTEM SEEMS TO BEGIN RECURVING ITS
TRACK.
IT SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, SLOWING DOWN
STRONGLY.
BEYOND TO 36 TO 48 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARDS IN FRONT OF A TROUGH IN
THE SOUTH-WEST.
EASTERLY SHEAR IS DECREASING, SO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE TOMORROW EVENING.
A MORE CLEARLY INTENSIFICATION PHASIS SOULD ALSO BEGIN.

[Coredesat]

Next SSMI/S pass is due at 03Z.

[HURAKAN]

BOOM!

[Coredesat]

SSMI/S missed the center. SSMI shows a very well-defined structure with the beginnings of a possible eye.

[Crostorm]

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 280626

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/9/20072008
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GULA)

2.A POSITION 2008/01/28 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0S / 62.6E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 060 SO: 040 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/28 18 UTC: 15.2S/61.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2008/01/29 06 UTC: 15.5S/61.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2008/01/29 18 UTC: 15.9S/60.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/01/30 06 UTC: 16.8S/59.2E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2008/01/30 18 UTC: 18.5S/58.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/01/31 06 UTC: 21.2S/56.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5-
RELOCATED CENTRE EAST OF THE 0000Z ESTIMATED CENTRE THANKS TO THE SSMI AT
0035Z.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED AND SYSTEM HAS ORGANIZED AS A CURVED
BAND PATTERN.
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AS UPPER DIVERGENCE IS GOOD.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICALE RIDGE. BUT THIS SHOULD AT FIRTS BE QUITE SLONW DOWN
BY THE EFFECT OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED IN THE NORTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM.
BEYOND 48 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD
ACCELERATE SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS.

[Crostorm]

Visible Eye

[Coredesat]

It's cut off on this image, but you can clearly make out an eye:

[HURAKAN]

[Coredesat]

Now a severe tropical storm.

WTIO30 FMEE 281231

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/9/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GULA)

2.A POSITION 2008/01/28 AT 1200 UTC :
14.9S / 62.2E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 080 NO: 080
50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 950 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/29 00 UTC: 14.9S/61.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2008/01/29 12 UTC: 15.1S/60.5E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2008/01/30 00 UTC: 15.8S/59.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/01/30 12 UTC: 17.5S/58.4E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2008/01/31 00 UTC: 19.6S/57.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/01/31 12 UTC: 22.3S/55.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5

THE SYSTEM HAS ORGANIZED AS A CURVED BAND PATTERN.
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BUT THIS SHOULD BE QUITE SLOWN DOWN FOR THE
NEXT 36 HOURS BY THE EFFECT OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED IN THE
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.
BEYOND 48 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD
ACCELERATE SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS.

[Coredesat]

AMSR-E missed the system; there is a SSMI/S pass due at 1536Z. NRL is up to 65 kt.