SW Pacific: Severe Tropical Cyclone Gene (TC 15P)

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 JAN 2008 Time : 053000 UTC
Lat : 17:01:51 S Lon : 179:21:36 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 993.7mb/ 43.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.7 3.0 3.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.5mb

Center Temp : -58.9C Cloud Region Temp : -64.0C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.58 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Chacor]

Intriguing track.

[Crostorm]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 28/0902 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [990HPA] CAT 1 NEAR 17.4S 178.2E AT
280600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. CYCLONE IS MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 12 KNOTS AND INTENSIFYING SLOWLY. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER
33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND
WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

LLCC IS OBSCURED BY A CDO. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS AND THERE IS A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH THE
SYSTEM CONTAINED IN MINIMAL SHEAR. DVORAK BASED ON 0.6 WRAP ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING DT=3.0 PT=3.0 MET=2.5, THUS T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON SOUTHWEST TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS AND
THEN A NORTHWEST TRACK AFTERWARDS WHILE INTENSIFYING.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 281800 UTC NEAR 18.5S 175.9E MOV WSW 10KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 290600 UTC NEAR 18.5S 174.1E MOV W 10KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 291800 UTC NEAR 17.2S 171.9E MOV NW 12KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 300600 UTC NEAR 16.5S 170.3E MOV W 07KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC GENE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 281430 UTC

[HURAKAN]

Heavy rainfall over Fiji.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 JAN 2008 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 17:48:28 S Lon : 177:48:14 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 987.3mb/ 53.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.9mb

Center Temp : -67.5C Cloud Region Temp : -69.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Coredesat]

CDO is becoming somewhat disrupted due to land interaction:

[Crostorm]

STORM WARNING 075 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 28/1332 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [985HPA] CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18
DECIMAL 1 SOUTH 177 DECIMAL 3 EAST AT 281200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 18.1 SOUTH 177.3 EAST AT 281200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING
TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 25 MILES CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS SOUTHWESTERLY
TRACK AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS BEFORE IT MOVES NORTHWEST.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 18.8S 175.0E AT 290000 UTC
AND NEAR 19.0S 173.1E AT 291200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO
SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 074. THE NEXT GALE WARNING
WILL BE ISSUED AT 281900UTC.

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 JAN 2008 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 17:58:18 S Lon : 177:32:06 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 985.9mb/ 55.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.9mb

Center Temp : -66.4C Cloud Region Temp : -65.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Chacor]

WTPS11 NFFN 281200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 28/1456 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [985HPA] CAT 2 NEAR 18.1S 177.3E AT
281200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10
KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES OVER
WATERS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED UP TO 50 KNOTS
CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 25 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 70 MILES ELSEWHERE.

DVORAK ANALYSIS GIVES A WRAP OF 0.8 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING
DT=3.5, THUS T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON SOUTHWEST
TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS AND THEN A NORTHWEST PATH AFTERWARDS.


FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 290000 UTC NEAR 18.8S 175.0E MOV WSW 12KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 291200 UTC NEAR 19.0S 173.1E MOV W 10KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 300000 UTC NEAR 18.9S 171.4E MOV WNW 08KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 301200 UTC NEAR 18.3S 170.8E MOV WNW 05KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC GENE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 282030 UTC.

[Chacor]

Name: GENE
Situation At: 1200UTC Tuesday 29 January 2008
Hurricane Warning: NIL
Storm Warning: SOUTHWEST VIVI LEVU
Gale Warning: REST OF VITI LEVU, BEQA, VATULELE, KADAVU, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS
Tropical Cyclone Alert: NIL
Location: 18.1S 177.3E
Recent Movement: SW 10 KNOTS

[HURAKAN]

Beginning to move away from Fiji.

[Coredesat]

Eye beginning to develop near the center.

[Coredesat]

[HurricaneBill]

Reports are indicating that Fiji took a devastating hit from Gene. At least 6 people dead.

Six die after cyclone hits Fiji

[Crostorm]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 29/0839 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [985HPA] CAT 2 NEAR 18.5S 175.5E AT
290600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 8
KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS PATH FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO
THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 25 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 70 MILES ELSEWHERE.

CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING AS QUICKLY AS IT DEVELOPS WITH CLOUD TOPS
WARMING ABOUT THE WESTERN FLANK. SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE
SHEAR ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLANK. STEERING INFLUENCED BY A
SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW OVER AREA WITH A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TC GENE. THIS SUPPORTS THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS DRIVING THE CYCLONE ALONG A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK FOR
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.95 WRAP ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING DT=3.5, MET AND PAT AGREE, THUS T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS.


FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 291800 UTC NEAR 18.7S 174.1E MOV SW 10KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 300600 UTC NEAR 18.9S 172.0E MOV SW 10KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 301800 UTC NEAR 19.5S 170.5E MOV WSW 8KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 310600 UTC NEAR 20.0S 169.2E MOV WSW 7KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON TC GENE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 291430 UTC.


.

[Coredesat]

Starting to come back together.

[HURAKAN]

Looking much better.

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 JAN 2008 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 18:36:22 S Lon : 173:54:46 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 985.7mb/ 55.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.7mb

Center Temp : -32.5C Cloud Region Temp : -66.0C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Crostorm]

[Squarethecircle]

This is stronger than 55 knots. Whaddya'll say, maybe, 70?