Mozambique Channel: Moderate Tropical Storm Jokwe (TC 22S)

[Squarethecircle]

Even further north now, and the eye feature is starting to come back:

[Squarethecircle]

Now full wraparound:

[HURAKAN]

[HurricaneBill]

Hopefully, Jokwe won't be like Cyclone Felicie from 1971.

[RattleMan]

934
WTIO30 FMEE 130625

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 35/12/20072008
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE)

2.A POSITION 2008/03/13 AT 0600 UTC :
25.0S / 40.4E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.5 /D 0.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 120 SE: 390 SO: 250 NO: 140
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/13 18 UTC: 24.5S/40.6E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2008/03/14 06 UTC: 24.1S/40.6E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2008/03/14 18 UTC: 23.5S/40.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/03/15 06 UTC: 23.2S/40.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/03/15 18 UTC: 22.8S/40.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2008/03/16 06 UTC: 22.4S/41.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0+ AND CI=4.5-

BETWEEN 00z AND 04z, THE SYSTEM HAS REACHED TEMPORARILY MINIMAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE. HOWEVER LAST VIS AND IR IMAGERIES SHOWS A POORLY DEFINED
EYE PATTERN.
JOKWE IS SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWARDS, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE IN THE EAST. THIS TRACK SHOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM WITHIN A RATHER
FAVORABLE ENVIRONEMENT WITH HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND LOWER VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A GLOBAL EQUATORWARDS
TRACK BUT WITH A RATHER BROAD SPECTRUM

[G.B.]

70kts-970mb

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[Pedro Fernández]

LLC very displaced?..............

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 131210

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 36/12/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JOKWE)

2.A POSITION 2008/03/13 AT 1200 UTC :
25.3S / 40.6E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.0 /W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 240 SE: 650 SO: 260 NO: 180
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 045

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/14 00 UTC: 25.0S/40.8E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2008/03/14 12 UTC: 24.5S/40.9E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2008/03/15 00 UTC: 24.3S/40.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/03/15 12 UTC: 24.6S/40.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/03/16 00 UTC: 25.0S/40.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2008/03/16 12 UTC: 24.3S/41.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.5 AND CI=4.0

SINCE 0500Z, THE EYE PATTERN HAS DISORGANISED. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM UNDERGOES A WESTERLY WINDSHEAR WITH AN ARC OF CIRRUS. F16 13/0520Z
SHOWS A LLCC WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY EXISTING IN THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY WITJIN A WEAK ENVIRONMENT. AVAILABLE
MODELS MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM IN THE SAME AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND
THEN ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH A BROAD FORECAST SPECTRUM.
THE FORECAST SCENARIO IS CLOSE TO ECMWF.
WITH THE SYSTEM BEING QUASI-STATIONAY, THE POTENTIAL FOR
REINTENSIFICATION IS LIMITED AS THE MOST FAVOURABLE CONDTIONS ARE UPPER
NORTH - HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND LOWER VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE SLOWLY WEAKEN.

Very weird forecast track. Also, a very large 30-kt wind radius - 640 km (405 mi).

[Squarethecircle]

Looking very disorganized right now, although convection is still over the center. Eye feature is gone, and at this point I think a precise forecast should be nigh on impossible.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 131801

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 37/12/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JOKWE)

2.A POSITION 2008/03/13 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.3S / 40.4E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/4.0 /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SO: 260 NO: 180
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 100 SO: 080 NO: 030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/14 06 UTC: 25.1S/40.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2008/03/14 18 UTC: 24.8S/40.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2008/03/15 06 UTC: 24.5S/40.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2008/03/15 18 UTC: 25.0S/40.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2008/03/16 06 UTC: 24.7S/41.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
72H: 2008/03/16 18 UTC: 24.2S/41.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0 AND CI=4.0-.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A WESTERLY WINDSHEAR WITH AN ARC OF
CIRRUS. N15 13/1504Z SHOWS A LLCC WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY
EXISTING IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY WITJIN A WEAK ENVIRONMENT. AVAILABLE
MODELS MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM IN THE SAME AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND
THEN ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH A BROAD FORECAST SPECTRUM.
THE FORECAST SCENARIO IS CLOSE TO ECMWF.
WITH THE SYSTEM BEING QUASI-STATIONAY, THE POTENTIAL FOR
REINTENSIFICATION IS LIMITED AS THE MOST FAVOURABLE CONDTIONS ARE UPPER
NORTH - HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND LOWER VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE SLOWLY WEAKEN.

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 486
WTIO30 FMEE 140616 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 39/12/20072008
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JOKWE)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/14 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1S / 40.2E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
EAST
)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 180 SE: 350 SO: 250 NO: 150
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/14 18 UTC: 25.0S/40.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/03/15 06 UTC: 25.2S/39.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2008/03/15 18 UTC: 25.5S/39.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2008/03/16 06 UTC: 25.7S/41.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING.
60H: 2008/03/16 18 UTC: 25.8S/43.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
72H: 2008/03/17 06 UTC: 25.0S/46.0E DISSIPATED.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5 AND CI=3.0

[HURAKAN]

[wyq614]

From Chinese Meteorological Agency:
西南印度洋热带气旋JOKWE的中心今天下午2点钟仍位于莫桑比克海峡南部海面，即南纬25.1度，东经40.2度，中心附近最大风力有8级（20米/秒）。
　　
　　预计，JOKWE仍将在莫桑比克海峡南部停滞少动，强度逐渐减弱。

At 2pm Beijing time (UTC+8), A tropical cyclone of the Southwestern Indian Ocean "Jokwe" is situated at the southern Mozambique Channel, that is 25.1S 40.2E,the maximum wind is 8 bft (20m/s)

Jokwe is forecasted to remain quasi-stationary in the south of Mozambique Channel and gradually weaken.

[HURAKAN]

A ghost of what it once was.

[P.K.]

Down to a TD.

BULLETIN DU 14 MARS A 22H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

DEPRESSION TROPICALE EX-JOKWE

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 998 HPA.
POSITION LE 14 MARS A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 25.0 SUD / 40.2 EST
(VINGT-CINQ DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES DEUX EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1595 KM A L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

SE DISSIPANT, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 25.2S/40.1E
DISSIPE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 26S/45E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.


CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
IL SERA REACTUALISE A 04H30 LOCALES.

[wyq614]

A ghost of what it once was.

I didn't post it on time. It was issued by CMA at about 17 hours local time (9UTC)

[wyq614]

Final Warning from La Reunion

PERTURBATION TROPICALE EX-JOKWE

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1001 HPA.
POSITION LE 15 MARS A 04 HEURES LOCALES: 24.7 SUD / 40.0 EST
(VINGT-QUATRE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES ZERO EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1605 KM A L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

SE DISSIPANT, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 25.1S/40.8E

[gigabyte89]

Its over...