Madagascar: OVERLAND DEPRESSION ex. IVAN (TC 18S)

[CrazyC83]

Ivan the Terrible strikes again...

[Crostorm]

Its going strait to Saint Marie Island

[HURAKAN]

[Squarethecircle]

Recent microwave looks like it's going through an ERC.

EDIT: Odd... I've recently noticed that it's been almost stationary for the past six hours.

[Crostorm]

LandFall Soon

[Squarethecircle]

Wow, that's a really lucky bout of weakening.

[HURAKAN]

[Cyclenall]

Wow, that's a really lucky bout of weakening.

Maybe a 5 knot weakening of winds. The roundness of the eye is the only thing that is different. I don't know about a possible ERC, it has a strange eyewall design.

[Squarethecircle]

I doubt you can say that just from looking at it. Also, the rainfall should be less.

And actually, the structure of the entire storm itself seems to have changed. It looks more like ten or fifteen knots weaker.

[btangy]

Ivan is headed toward a relatively populated part of the coastline near and north of Fenerive. This part of Madgascar hasn't seen a major tropical cyclone landfall since Tropical Cyclone Bonita in Jan 1996 which caused significant damage and took some lives. Hopefully they are prepared for the onslaught.

[Chacor]

049
WTIO30 FMEE 170006

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 40/11/20072008
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IVAN)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/17 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0S / 50.5E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST
)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/6.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 400 SE: 400 SO: 300 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 080 NO: 080

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/17 12 UTC: 17.5S/49.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/02/18 00 UTC: 18.2S/47.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2008/02/18 12 UTC: 18.9S/46.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND.
48H: 2008/02/19 00 UTC: 19.5S/45.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
60H: 2008/02/19 12 UTC: 20.6S/44.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
72H: 2008/02/20 00 UTC: 21.2S/44.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.5+ AND CI=6.0-
IVAN IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS.
HURRICANE IS FORECASTED TO MAKE ITS LANDFALL IN THE NORTH OF THE HARBOR
CITY OF TAMATAVE (NEAR FENOARIVO-ATSINANANA) ON SUNDAY BETWEEN 0600Z AND
0900Z WITH MAXIMUM 10MN AVERAGE WINDS IN THE EYEWALL AT ABOUT 110KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 155 KT.
BECAUSE THE EYE IS LARGE (ABOUT 40 NM DIAMETER), THE RATHER QUITE PERIOD
BETWEEN THE TWO STRIKES OF STRONGEST WINDS COULD BE UP TO 2 HOURS LONG
FOR THE AREA WHICH ARE CROSSED BY THE LARGEST DIAMETER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS (MORE THAN 65KT WITH GUSTS MORE THAN 90KT) SHOULD
CONCERN THE ISLAND OF SAINTE-MARIE WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS AND THEN HOURS
AFTER HOURS THE ALL COASTLINE FROM ANTANAMBE IN THE NORTH TO TOAMASINA IN
THE SOUTH EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 30 NM OVERLAND.
AFTER THE LANFALL, WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEAKENING RAPIDLY BUT NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS SOULD OCCUR OVER SEA BETWEEN 18S AND 22S UP TO 100 NM FROM
THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[Crostorm]

[G.B.]

[HURAKAN]

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

[Coredesat]

Landfall.