SWIO: Tropical Depression HONDO (TC 16S)

[Squarethecircle]

That looks pretty darn good...

[Chacor]

[Coredesat]

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 60.9E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.3S 60.3E, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM NORTHWEST OF
LA REUNION ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CON-
VECTION BUILDING ON THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS IN THE
REGION VERIFY THE PRESENCE OF THE LLCC AND REPORT 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOC-
ATED UNDER AN IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, STRENGTHENING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND DEVELOPING OUTFLOW CHANNELS
ON BOTH THE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD HEMISPHERES OF THE CIRCULATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MIN-
IMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE
ENHANCED CONVECTION AND DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTE-
NTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 210606

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 36/10/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 (EX-HONDO)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/21 AT 0600 UTC :
18.3S / 59.2E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/21 18 UTC: 19.1S/58.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2008/02/22 06 UTC: 20.1S/57.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2008/02/22 18 UTC: 21.2S/57.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2008/02/23 06 UTC: 22.9S/55.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2008/02/23 18 UTC: 24.9S/53.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.
72H: 2008/02/24 06 UTC: 27.8S/51.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0-.
THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION OF HONDO HAS CAME BACK NEAR MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS
..
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS RATHER WELL DEFINED. MAIN THUNDERSTROM
ACTIVITY IS PRESENT MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT FOR THE MOMENT.
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURES. IT SHOULD CURVE SOUTHEASTWARDS TODAY.
DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT, STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED TO THIS RESIDUAL
VORTEX COULD REACH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS UP TO TAU 72.

ALTOUGH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK AND IS NOT FORECASTED TO RE-INTENSIFY A
LOT, IT SHOULD GENERATE VERY DISTURBED WEATHER OVER MAURITIUS ON THE 22
AND REUNION ISLAND THE 23 (DEGRADATION THE NIGHT BEFORE).
BEYONG TAU 48, IT IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO DEFINITIVE EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

WTXS21 PGTW 210830
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.8S 60.6E TO 20.5S 57.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 210530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.0S 60.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.3S
60.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 60.3E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING ON THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SURFACE WIND
OBSERVATIONS IN THE REGION VERIFY THE PRESENCE OF THE LLCC AND REPORT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC
IS LOCATED UNDER AN IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IMPROVING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. RECENT
QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT IMAGES DEPICT 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
OF THE CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1000 MB. DUE TO THE ENHANCED CONVECTION AND DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 220830Z.//

[Crostorm]

ZCZC 508
WTIO30 FMEE 211222
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 37/10/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 (EX-HONDO)
2.A POSITION 2008/02/21 AT 1200 UTC :
18.0S / 59.9E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/22 00 UTC: 18.4S/59.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/02/22 12 UTC: 19.0S/58.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
36H: 2008/02/23 00 UTC: 19.7S/57.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2008/02/23 12 UTC: 20.8S/56.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2008/02/24 00 UTC: 22.3S/54.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.
72H: 2008/02/24 12 UTC: 23.7S/52.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0.
THE CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED MORE EASTWARDS, WITH THE NOAA18 10 UTC.
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS RATHER WELL DEFINED. MAIN THUNDERSTROM
ACTIVITY IS PRESENT MAINLY IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRDLE FOR THE MOMENT.
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURES. IT HAS CLEARLY SLOWNAED DOWN, AND SHOULD CURVE
SOUTHEASTWARDS
TODAY.
DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT, STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED TO THIS RESIDUAL
VORTEX COULD REACH NEAR GALE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
ALTOUGH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK AND IS NOT FORECASTED TO
RE-INTENSIFY A
LOT, IT SHOULD GENERATE VERY DISTURBED WEATHER OVER MAURITIUS ON THE
22
AND REUNION ISLAND THE 23 (DEGRADATION THE NIGHT BEFORE).
BEYONG TAU 48, IT IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO DEFINITIVE EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[HurricaneRobert]

Looks like Tropical Storm Hondo. It should win an Oscar or something.

[HURAKAN]

[Crostorm]

WEATHER NEWS ISSUED AT 17H05 ON 21 FEBRUARY 2008.

GENERAL SITUATION :
LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
'EX-HONDO' HAS REORGANISED ITSELF AND HAS SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED AND
AT 16H00, IT WAS QUASI-STATIONARY AT ABOUT 290 KM TO THE NORTH-EAST
OF MAURITIUS. THERE ARE CHANCES THAT THE CLOUD MASS ASSOCIATED TO
EX-HONDO WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE TOWARDS MAURITIUS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

FORECAST FOR NEXT 24 HOURS :
PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGH GROUNDS.
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE FREQUENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

WIND EASTERLY 25 KM/H WITH PEAKS OF THE ORDER OF 60 KM/H
STRENGTHENING GRADUALLY TO 80 KM/H TOMORROW MORNING.

SEA ROUGH WITH SWELLS. VENTURES AT SEA ARE NOT ADVISED.

THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE WILL BE AROUND 21'C AND THE MAXIMUM 27'C
OVER THE CENTRAL PLATEAU. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OVER THE COASTAL
REGIONS WILL BE AROUND 25'C AND THE MAXIMUM WILL VARY BETWEEN 29
AND 31'C.

HIGH TIDE TOMORROW 02H13 AND 13H50
LOW TIDE : 19H47 AND TOMORROW 08H05.

SUNRISE: 06H05
SUNSET : 18H43

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE AT 16H00 THIS AFTERNOON: 1009 HPA.

[Crostorm]

BULLETIN DU 21 FEVRIER A 19H30 LOCALES:

VIGILANCE CYCLONIQUE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************



NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


DEPRESSION TROPICALE EX-HONDO

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 998 HPA.
POSITION LE 21 FEVRIER A 19 HEURES LOCALES: 18.0 SUD / 59.9 EST
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE-NEUF DEGRES NEUF EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 545 KM AU NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 19.2S/58.5E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 21.1S/56.2E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 24S/51.6E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.




CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN CE JEUDI 21 FEVRIER A 22H30 LOCALES

[Crostorm]

[P.K.]

Well this forecast takes it just below TC strength within 72 hours. Can anyone remember a system go nine days between advisories like this? Even Ivan only went 5 days without advisories in the N Atl in 2004.

WTIO30 FMEE 211849

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 38/10/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (EX-HONDO)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/21 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2S / 59.9E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 020 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 020

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/22 06 UTC: 18.7S/59.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
24H: 2008/02/22 18 UTC: 19.5S/58.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2008/02/23 06 UTC: 20.1S/57.4E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
48H: 2008/02/23 18 UTC: 21.5S/55.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/02/24 06 UTC: 22.8S/53.1E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2008/02/24 18 UTC: 24.0S/51.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5
EX-HONDO IS QUASI-STATIONNARY ABOUT 10 HOURS AGO.
THIS AFTERNOON MICROWAVE IMAGERY (1425Z WINDSAT AND 1449Z SSMI F13) SHOWS
A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
METEOSAT7 IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ORGANIZED IN CURVED
BAND PATTERN SINCE 1100Z BUT SINCE 1600Z, THIS CURVED BAND HAS HOWEVER
SCATTERED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE DIFFICULT IN THE BORDER OF A QUICK
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDSHEAR LINE EXISTING WEST OF 55E.
IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AGAIN SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES WITHIN THE NIGHT.
IT COULD INTENSIFY GRADUALLY BUT INTENSITY FORECASTING REMAINS DELICATE.

[Squarethecircle]

It doesn't look great though, but there IS convection still over the center, the microwave looks decent, and there is clear rotation in the existing convection.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

The fact that it has redeveloped at all is impressive, let alone now forecasted to get close to tropical cyclone status again!

I think it doesn't look that bad, as noted before there is an evident circulation and some fairly deep convection is present in two clusters...I honestly didn't think I'd be saying that about Hondo again!

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

TPXS10 PGTW 211828

A. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO)

B. 21/1730Z

C. 18.4S

D. 60.0E

E. SIX/MET7

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS (21/1730Z)

G. IR/EIR

38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.

UEHARA

[Squarethecircle]

Well, here we go again.

Has anything on this scale ever happened (i.e., really intense annular storm dissipates and comes back more than a week later to become a fairly decent tropical system)?